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Food basket in Katako

Niamey, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,467–3,682

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,328–3,767

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,456 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,467 and 3,682 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,328 and 3,767 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Katako: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,456 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,467 and 3,682 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,328 and 3,767 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,927–3,626 3,288 2,774–3,687
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,582–3,583 2,925 2,296–3,946
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,467–3,682 2,891 2,183–4,527
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,405–3,734 2,869 2,202–4,057
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,328–3,767 2,936 1,901–3,904
Cost history (359 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,312
Aug 20263,456
Jul 20263,552
Jun 20263,288
Apr 20262,976
Mar 20262,880
Feb 20262,820
Jan 20262,820
Dec 20252,820
Nov 20252,832
Oct 20253,036
Sept 20253,348
Aug 20253,384
Jul 20253,636
May 20253,984
Apr 20253,984
Mar 20253,924
Feb 20253,852
Jan 20253,960
Dec 20243,636
Nov 20243,840
Oct 20243,720
Sept 20244,860
Aug 20245,748
Jul 20245,520
Jun 20245,064
May 20244,356
Apr 20244,152
Mar 20243,924
Feb 20243,780
Jan 20243,540
Dec 20233,300
Nov 20233,432
Oct 20233,636
Sept 20234,380
Aug 20234,344
Jul 20233,996
Jun 20233,624
May 20233,480
Apr 20233,780
Mar 20233,612
Feb 20233,504
Jan 20233,348
Dec 20223,576
Nov 20223,216
Oct 20223,816
Sept 20224,164
Aug 20224,680
Jul 20224,320
May 20224,044
Apr 20224,044
Mar 20223,852
Feb 20223,768
Jan 20223,528
Dec 20213,456
Nov 20213,528
Oct 20213,396
Sept 20213,612
Aug 20213,696
Jul 20213,528
Jun 20213,528
May 20213,528
Apr 20213,300
Mar 20213,312
Feb 20213,192
Jan 20212,808
Dec 20202,424
Nov 20202,808
Oct 20202,940
Sept 20203,684
Aug 20203,684
Jul 20203,321
Jun 20203,084
Apr 20203,060
Mar 20202,880
Feb 20202,796
Jan 20202,616
Dec 20192,592
Nov 20192,592
Oct 20192,568
Sept 20192,520
Aug 20192,640
Jul 20192,736
Jun 20191,740
May 20192,796
Apr 20193,084
Mar 20192,844
Feb 20192,820
Jan 20192,808
Dec 20182,808
Nov 20182,796
Oct 20182,796
Sept 20183,348
Aug 20183,576
Jul 20183,576
Jun 20183,528
May 20183,324
Apr 20183,324
Mar 20183,096
Feb 20183,096
Jan 20183,024
Dec 20173,024
Nov 20173,336
Oct 20173,228
Sept 20173,456
Aug 20173,768
Jul 20173,552
Apr 20173,336
Mar 20172,856
Feb 20172,820
Jan 20172,844
Nov 20162,796
Oct 20162,796
Sept 20163,084
Aug 20163,084
Jul 20162,856
May 20162,868
Apr 20162,856
Mar 20162,856
Feb 20162,604
Jan 20162,592
Dec 20152,592
Oct 20152,604
Sept 20152,592
Aug 20152,856
Jul 20152,856
Apr 20152,880
Mar 20152,846
Feb 20152,840
Jan 20152,820
Nov 20142,857
Oct 20142,876
Sept 20142,956
Aug 20143,089
Jun 20143,254
May 20143,301
Apr 20143,333
Mar 20143,294
Feb 20143,301
Jan 20143,178
Dec 20133,241
Nov 20133,084
Oct 20133,154
Sept 20133,278
Aug 20133,438
Jul 20133,640
Apr 20133,206
Mar 20133,110
Feb 20133,027
Jan 20132,857
Dec 20123,003
Nov 20123,086
Oct 20123,000
Sept 20123,871
Aug 20123,875
Jul 20123,600
Apr 20123,288
Mar 20123,115
Feb 20123,096
Jan 20123,120
Dec 20113,120
Nov 20112,610
Oct 20112,388
Sept 20112,424
Jul 20112,520
Jun 20112,616
May 20112,646
Apr 20112,472
Mar 20112,424
Feb 20112,353
Jan 20112,353
Dec 20102,392
Nov 20102,400
Oct 20102,381
Sept 20102,790
Aug 20102,817
Jun 20102,903
Apr 20102,894
Mar 20102,868
Feb 20102,892
Jan 20102,868
Dec 20092,647
Nov 20092,616
Oct 20092,496
Sept 20092,823
Aug 20093,095
Apr 20092,888
Mar 20092,847
Feb 20092,791
Jan 20092,634
Dec 20082,376
Nov 20082,256
Oct 20081,884
Sept 20082,700
Aug 20082,880
Jun 20082,532
May 20082,436
Apr 20082,424
Mar 20082,304
Feb 20082,196
Jan 20081,908
Dec 20071,909
Nov 20071,950
Oct 20071,939
Sept 20071,927
Aug 20071,964
May 20071,904
Apr 20071,941
Mar 20071,950
Feb 20071,988
Jan 20071,971
Dec 20061,955
Nov 20061,948
Oct 20062,014
Sept 20062,194
Aug 20062,283
Jul 20062,199
Apr 20062,138
Mar 20062,191
Feb 20062,222
Jan 20062,165
Dec 20052,005
Nov 20052,007
Oct 20052,164
Sept 20052,894
Aug 20053,884
May 20052,560
Apr 20052,539
Mar 20052,429
Feb 20052,264
Jan 20052,269
Dec 20042,221
Nov 20041,941
Oct 20042,017
Sept 20041,781
Aug 20041,851
Jul 20041,745
Jun 20041,612
May 20041,664
Apr 20041,630
Mar 20041,639
Feb 20041,531
Jan 20041,472
Dec 20031,464
Nov 20031,551
Oct 20031,720
Sept 20031,716
Aug 20031,849
Jul 20032,000
Jun 20032,000
May 20032,118
Apr 20032,139
Mar 20032,103
Feb 20032,085
Jan 20032,100
Dec 20022,226
Nov 20022,250
Oct 20022,028
Sept 20022,640
Aug 20023,004
Jul 20022,760
May 20022,478
Apr 20022,472
Mar 20022,364
Feb 20022,232
Jan 20021,976
Dec 20011,728
Nov 20011,764
Oct 20011,842
Sept 20012,232
Aug 20012,736
Jul 20012,610
May 20012,580
Apr 20012,653
Mar 20012,128
Feb 20011,817
Jan 20011,745
Dec 20001,728
Nov 20001,536
Oct 20001,542
Sept 20001,608
Aug 20001,608
Jun 20001,602
May 20001,596
Apr 20001,578
Mar 20001,518
Feb 20001,524
Jan 20001,380
Dec 19991,332
Nov 19991,356
Oct 19991,368
Sept 19991,512
Aug 19991,464
Jul 19991,428
Jun 19991,464
May 19991,488
Apr 19991,476
Mar 19991,464
Feb 19991,464
Jan 19991,464
Dec 19981,476
Nov 19981,464
Oct 19981,776
Sept 19982,256
Aug 19982,988
Jul 19982,928
Jun 19982,784
May 19982,748
Apr 19982,520
Mar 19982,232
Feb 19982,016
Jan 19981,980
Dec 19972,016
Nov 19972,016
Oct 19971,872
Sept 19972,088
Aug 19972,232
Jul 19972,160
Jun 19972,004
May 19971,968
Apr 19972,028
Mar 19971,764
Feb 19971,644
Jan 19971,476
Dec 19961,368
Nov 19961,284
Oct 19961,428
Sept 19961,596
Aug 19961,908
Jul 19961,596
Jun 19961,620
May 19961,632
Apr 19961,440
Mar 19961,248
Feb 19961,200
Jan 19961,116
Dec 19951,116
Nov 19951,080
Oct 1995960
Sept 1995984
Aug 19951,116
Jun 19951,032
May 1995996
Apr 19951,032
Mar 19951,020
Feb 19951,008
Jan 1995984
Dec 19941,032
Nov 19941,032
Oct 19941,080
Sept 19941,164
Aug 19941,224
Jul 19941,272
Jun 19941,260
May 19941,128
Apr 19941,104
Mar 19941,104
Feb 19941,044
Jan 1994936

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186