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Food basket in Kirtachi

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,188–3,489

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,289–3,665

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,636 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,188 and 3,489 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,289 and 3,665 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kirtachi: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,636 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,188 and 3,489 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,289 and 3,665 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,799–3,644 3,252 2,606–3,692
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,227–3,419 2,682 2,168–3,587
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,188–3,489 2,630 2,169–3,826
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,214–3,587 2,632 2,196–4,646
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,289–3,665 2,748 2,187–4,736
Cost history (300 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,636
Jul 20263,432
Jun 20263,612
May 20263,024
Apr 20262,940
Mar 20262,940
Feb 20262,556
Jan 20262,796
Nov 20252,460
Aug 20253,096
Jul 20253,756
Jun 20253,672
May 20253,672
Apr 20253,612
Mar 20253,540
Feb 20253,672
Jan 20253,924
Nov 20243,108
Oct 20243,564
Jul 20245,412
Jun 20245,076
May 20244,524
Apr 20244,296
Mar 20244,032
Feb 20243,684
Jan 20243,624
Dec 20233,300
Nov 20233,504
Oct 20233,144
Aug 20234,212
Jul 20234,056
May 20233,672
Apr 20233,708
Mar 20233,576
Feb 20233,432
Jan 20233,180
Nov 20223,612
Sept 20223,624
Aug 20223,876
Jul 20224,044
Jun 20223,696
May 20223,756
Apr 20223,660
Mar 20223,624
Feb 20223,624
Jan 20223,264
Oct 20212,976
Aug 20213,996
Jul 20213,396
Jun 20213,432
May 20213,564
Apr 20213,468
Mar 20212,952
Feb 20213,192
Jan 20212,964
Nov 20202,340
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20203,528
Aug 20203,670
Jul 20203,441
Jun 20202,808
May 20202,748
Apr 20202,622
Mar 20202,484
Feb 20202,484
Jan 20202,460
Oct 20192,424
Jul 20193,072
Jun 20192,748
May 20193,000
Apr 20193,000
Mar 20192,568
Feb 20192,412
Jan 20192,400
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,400
Oct 20182,400
Sept 20183,060
Jul 20183,456
Jun 20183,456
May 20183,432
Apr 20183,324
Mar 20183,192
Feb 20182,988
Jan 20182,916
Sept 20173,456
Aug 20173,720
Jul 20173,276
Jun 20173,180
May 20173,528
Apr 20172,976
Mar 20172,424
Feb 20172,448
Jan 20172,436
Jul 20162,892
Jun 20162,724
May 20162,460
Apr 20162,424
Mar 20162,484
Feb 20162,448
Jan 20162,448
Sept 20152,652
Jul 20152,460
Jun 20152,424
May 20152,436
Apr 20152,460
Mar 20152,445
Feb 20152,395
Jan 20152,412
Nov 20142,457
Sept 20142,469
Aug 20142,912
Jul 20142,947
Jun 20142,963
May 20142,983
Apr 20142,991
Mar 20142,939
Feb 20142,945
Jan 20142,957
Nov 20132,739
Sept 20133,272
Jul 20133,312
Jun 20132,734
May 20132,975
Apr 20132,948
Mar 20132,963
Feb 20132,778
Jan 20132,617
Oct 20122,743
Sept 20123,395
Jul 20123,556
May 20123,168
Apr 20123,020
Mar 20122,840
Feb 20122,796
Jan 20122,796
Dec 20112,581
Nov 20112,381
Sept 20112,166
Jul 20112,591
Jun 20112,472
May 20112,472
Apr 20112,443
Mar 20112,436
Feb 20112,446
Jan 20112,377
Dec 20102,275
Oct 20102,418
Jul 20102,820
Jun 20102,672
May 20102,661
Apr 20102,522
Feb 20102,512
Jan 20102,472
Dec 20092,560
Nov 20092,540
Oct 20092,024
Sept 20093,086
Jul 20092,906
Jun 20092,678
May 20092,521
Apr 20092,416
Mar 20092,568
Feb 20092,498
Jan 20092,474
Dec 20082,196
Nov 20082,015
Aug 20082,880
Jul 20082,784
Jun 20082,532
May 20082,508
Apr 20082,292
Mar 20082,136
Feb 20081,812
Jan 20081,644
Sept 20071,747
Jul 20071,752
Jun 20071,726
May 20071,738
Apr 20071,683
Mar 20071,703
Feb 20071,728
Jan 20071,714
Dec 20061,714
Oct 20061,696
Jul 20062,540
Jun 20062,478
May 20062,391
Apr 20062,331
Mar 20062,260
Feb 20062,348
Jan 20062,160
Nov 20051,812
Aug 20053,644
Jul 20053,021
Jun 20052,495
May 20052,331
Apr 20052,089
Mar 20052,084
Feb 20051,593
Jan 20051,500
Dec 20041,320
Nov 20041,255
Sept 20041,500
Aug 20041,912
Jul 20041,712
Jun 20041,485
May 20041,455
Apr 20041,623
Mar 20041,315
Feb 20041,188
Jan 20041,257
Dec 20031,104
Sept 20031,704
Aug 20031,900
Jul 20031,931
Jun 20031,994
May 20031,954
Apr 20031,968
Mar 20032,002
Feb 20031,800
Jan 20031,752
Dec 20021,680
Nov 20021,278
Aug 20022,685
Jul 20022,772
Jun 20022,526
May 20022,280
Apr 20022,244
Mar 20022,256
Feb 20022,274
Jan 20021,892
Sept 20012,412
Jul 20012,556
Jun 20012,328
Aug 20001,428
Jul 20001,368
Jun 20001,428
May 20001,404
Apr 20001,608
Mar 20001,272
Feb 20001,128
Jan 20001,128
Nov 19991,104
Oct 19991,104
Sept 19991,428
Aug 19991,716
Jul 19991,596
Jun 19991,440
May 19991,440
Apr 19991,428
Mar 19991,416
Feb 19991,272
Jan 19991,128
Dec 19981,128
Sept 19982,268
Aug 19982,772
Jul 19982,664
Jun 19982,772
May 19982,736
Apr 19982,640
Mar 19982,292
Feb 19981,560
Jan 19981,776
Nov 19971,476
Oct 19971,392
Aug 19972,280
Jul 19972,124
Jun 19971,668
May 19971,752
Apr 19971,596
Mar 19971,440
Feb 19971,284
Jan 19971,140
Dec 19961,008
Nov 1996780
Sept 19961,272
Aug 19961,296
Jul 19961,428
Jun 19961,320
May 19961,404
Apr 19961,392
Mar 19961,164
Feb 1996792
Jan 1996804
Aug 19951,416
Jul 19951,404
Jun 19951,140
May 19951,152
Apr 19951,128
Mar 19951,140
Feb 19951,140
Jan 1995864
Aug 19941,140
Jul 1994900
Jun 1994900
May 1994696
Apr 1994684
Mar 1994660
Feb 1994684

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186