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Food basket in Koundoumaoua

Zinder, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,599–2,596

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,681–2,773

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,544 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,599 and 2,596 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,681 and 2,773 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Koundoumaoua: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,544 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,599 and 2,596 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,681 and 2,773 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,938–2,609 2,197 1,704–2,679
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,590–2,511 1,896 1,484–2,593
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,599–2,596 1,974 1,467–2,635
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,682–2,661 2,056 1,530–2,946
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,681–2,773 2,112 1,561–3,392
Cost history (384 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,400
Aug 20262,544
Jul 20262,664
Jun 20262,844
May 20262,496
Apr 20262,448
Mar 20262,736
Feb 20262,364
Jan 20262,196
Dec 20252,244
Nov 20252,424
Oct 20252,280
Sept 20252,436
Aug 20253,396
Jul 20253,444
Jun 20253,660
May 20253,420
Apr 20253,408
Mar 20253,504
Feb 20253,504
Jan 20253,528
Dec 20243,288
Nov 20243,000
Oct 20243,012
Sept 20243,600
Aug 20245,544
Jul 20245,580
Jun 20244,416
May 20244,188
Apr 20243,888
Mar 20243,888
Feb 20243,780
Jan 20243,528
Dec 20232,832
Nov 20233,120
Oct 20232,592
Sept 20233,216
Aug 20233,876
Jul 20233,504
Jun 20233,240
May 20233,480
Apr 20233,396
Mar 20233,060
Feb 20232,736
Jan 20232,568
Dec 20222,676
Oct 20222,388
Sept 20223,288
Aug 20223,348
Jul 20223,744
Jun 20223,612
May 20223,300
Apr 20223,312
Mar 20223,108
Feb 20223,168
Jan 20223,276
Dec 20213,216
Nov 20212,388
Oct 20212,208
Sept 20213,408
Aug 20213,888
Jul 20213,528
Jun 20213,300
May 20213,108
Apr 20213,072
Feb 20212,856
Jan 20212,664
Dec 20202,412
Nov 20202,016
Oct 20201,908
Sept 20203,096
Aug 20203,528
Jul 20203,231
Jun 20202,712
May 20202,640
Apr 20202,619
Mar 20202,508
Feb 20202,472
Jan 20202,256
Dec 20192,028
Nov 20191,860
Oct 20191,728
Sept 20191,704
Aug 20192,064
Jul 20192,592
Jun 20192,004
May 20192,256
Apr 20192,364
Mar 20192,172
Feb 20191,872
Jan 20191,848
Dec 20181,836
Nov 20181,824
Oct 20181,728
Sept 20182,232
Aug 20182,472
Jul 20182,568
Jun 20182,544
May 20182,280
Apr 20182,556
Mar 20182,232
Feb 20182,280
Jan 20182,172
Dec 20172,172
Nov 20172,124
Oct 20171,740
Sept 20172,424
Aug 20173,528
Jul 20173,552
Jun 20173,588
May 20173,420
Apr 20173,180
Mar 20172,940
Feb 20172,700
Jan 20172,244
Nov 20161,824
Oct 20161,680
Sept 20161,788
Aug 20162,772
Jul 20162,448
Jun 20161,992
May 20161,968
Apr 20161,872
Mar 20161,812
Feb 20161,632
Jan 20161,404
Dec 20151,404
Oct 20151,536
Sept 20151,656
Aug 20151,788
Jul 20151,776
Jun 20151,860
May 20151,944
Apr 20151,836
Mar 20151,536
Feb 20151,642
Jan 20151,620
Nov 20141,771
Oct 20141,541
Sept 20142,094
Aug 20142,396
Jul 20142,599
Jun 20142,674
May 20142,637
Apr 20142,717
Mar 20142,673
Feb 20142,586
Jan 20142,607
Dec 20132,618
Nov 20132,616
Oct 20132,356
Sept 20132,652
Aug 20133,403
Jul 20133,475
Jun 20133,107
May 20132,995
Apr 20132,989
Mar 20133,033
Feb 20132,944
Jan 20132,485
Dec 20122,410
Nov 20122,095
Oct 20121,870
Sept 20123,033
Aug 20123,143
Jul 20123,257
May 20122,871
Apr 20122,886
Mar 20122,610
Feb 20122,583
Jan 20122,304
Dec 20112,297
Nov 20112,018
Oct 20111,608
Sept 20111,480
Jul 20111,692
Jun 20111,716
May 20111,854
Apr 20111,752
Mar 20111,680
Jan 20111,699
Nov 20101,428
Oct 20101,266
Sept 20101,797
Aug 20102,784
Jul 20102,641
Jun 20102,531
May 20102,520
Apr 20102,381
Mar 20102,310
Feb 20102,271
Jan 20102,201
Dec 20092,109
Nov 20091,812
Oct 20091,673
Sept 20092,184
Aug 20092,580
Jul 20092,468
Jun 20092,112
May 20091,989
Apr 20092,086
Mar 20091,923
Feb 20091,911
Jan 20091,879
Dec 20081,708
Nov 20081,511
Oct 20081,392
Sept 20081,872
Aug 20082,244
Jul 20082,112
Jun 20081,932
May 20081,716
Apr 20081,680
Mar 20081,860
Feb 20081,548
Jan 20081,404
Dec 20071,168
Nov 20071,244
Oct 20071,048
Sept 20071,331
Aug 20071,398
Jul 20071,401
Jun 20071,434
May 20071,463
Apr 20071,578
Mar 20071,430
Feb 20071,420
Jan 20071,319
Dec 20061,293
Nov 20061,280
Oct 20061,227
Sept 20061,668
Aug 20061,810
Jul 20061,913
Jun 20061,725
May 20061,653
Apr 20061,574
Mar 20061,565
Feb 20061,548
Jan 20061,511
Dec 20051,390
Nov 20051,185
Oct 20051,272
Sept 20052,266
Aug 20053,296
Jul 20053,205
Jun 20052,523
May 20052,220
Apr 20052,172
Mar 20051,903
Feb 20051,815
Jan 20051,505
Dec 20041,408
Nov 20041,344
Oct 20041,142
Sept 20041,535
Aug 20041,667
Jul 20041,379
Jun 20041,324
May 20041,419
Apr 20041,329
Mar 20041,236
Feb 20041,123
Jan 2004897
Dec 2003795
Nov 2003853
Oct 2003784
Sept 20031,023
Aug 20031,155
Jul 20031,288
Jun 20031,294
May 20031,412
Apr 20031,413
Mar 20031,404
Feb 20031,425
Jan 20031,373
Dec 20021,332
Nov 20021,398
Oct 20021,260
Sept 20021,974
Aug 20022,296
Jul 20022,442
Jun 20022,226
May 20022,160
Apr 20021,944
Mar 20021,836
Feb 20021,728
Jan 20021,420
Dec 20011,320
Nov 20011,308
Oct 20011,302
Sept 20011,740
Aug 20012,356
Jul 20012,316
Jun 20012,082
May 20011,956
Apr 20012,052
Mar 20011,911
Feb 20011,470
Jan 20011,235
Dec 20001,362
Nov 20001,104
Oct 20001,044
Sept 20001,236
Aug 20001,272
Jul 20001,308
Jun 20001,182
May 20001,296
Apr 20001,236
Mar 20001,044
Feb 2000984
Jan 2000836
Dec 1999864
Nov 1999864
Oct 1999876
Sept 1999864
Aug 1999864
Jul 1999972
Jun 1999972
May 1999936
Apr 1999972
Mar 1999840
Feb 1999756
Jan 1999828
Dec 1998840
Nov 1998900
Oct 1998888
Sept 19981,692
Aug 19982,412
Jul 19982,400
Jun 19982,196
May 19982,064
Apr 19982,004
Mar 19981,740
Feb 19981,584
Jan 19981,536
Dec 19971,284
Nov 19971,332
Oct 19971,140
Sept 19971,140
Aug 19971,716
Jul 19971,752
Jun 19971,572
May 19971,572
Apr 19971,464
Mar 19971,284
Feb 19971,104
Jan 19971,092
Dec 1996960
Nov 19961,032
Oct 1996888
Sept 1996948
Aug 19961,296
Jul 19961,212
Jun 19961,032
May 19961,080
Apr 19961,044
Mar 1996792
Feb 1996756
Jan 1996708
Dec 1995636
Nov 1995684
Oct 1995600
Sept 1995576
Aug 1995672
Jul 1995780
Jun 1995624
May 1995612
Apr 1995576
Mar 1995528
Feb 1995552
Jan 1995504
Dec 1994432
Nov 1994456
Oct 1994480
Sept 1994456
Aug 1994708
Jul 1994756
Jun 1994828
May 1994708
Apr 1994612
Mar 1994612
Feb 1994588
Jan 1994444

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186