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Maize in Loga

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 2% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

144–206

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

135–218

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 135 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Loga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 135 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 175–204 189 161–226 301 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 154–202 172 129–207 266 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 144–206 170 122–221 264 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 142–213 171 118–246 267 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 135–218 169 111–294 269 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026189
Aug 2026189
Jul 2026189
Jun 2026197
May 2026196
Apr 2026199
Mar 2026192
Feb 2026192
Jan 2026192
Dec 2025190
Nov 2025189
Oct 2025191
Sept 2025192
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025258
Jun 2025283
May 2025278
Apr 2025278
Mar 2025284
Feb 2025278
Jan 2025280
Dec 2024283
Nov 2024270
Oct 2024292
Sept 2024413
Aug 2024447
Jul 2024422
Jun 2024411
May 2024385
Apr 2024341
Mar 2024315
Feb 2024296
Jan 2024310
Dec 2023310
Nov 2023296
Oct 2023306
Sept 2023353
Aug 2023346
Jul 2023287
Jun 2023274
May 2023264
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023255
Feb 2023246
Jan 2023246
Dec 2022246
Nov 2022280
Oct 2022222
Sept 2022274
Aug 2022283
Jul 2022283
Jun 2022283
May 2022283
Apr 2022302
Mar 2022302
Jan 2022246
Dec 2021246
Nov 2021246
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021302
Aug 2021302
Jul 2021278
Jun 2021227
May 2021227
Apr 2021236
Mar 2021257
Feb 2021236
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020217
Nov 2020196
Oct 2020196
Sept 2020204
Aug 2020208
Jul 2020188
Jun 2020189
May 2020189
Mar 2020189
Feb 2020176
Jan 2020189
Dec 2019189
Nov 2019189
Oct 2019189
Sept 2019186
Aug 2019189
Jul 2019189
Jun 2019190
May 2019190
Apr 2019189
Mar 2019189
Feb 2019189
Jan 2019189
Dec 2018189
Nov 2018196
Oct 2018192
Sept 2018212
Aug 2018208
Jul 2018208
Jun 2018201
May 2018224
Mar 2018185
Feb 2018189
Jan 2018189
Nov 2017187
Oct 2017189
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017225
Jul 2017219
Jun 2017225
May 2017226
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017214
Feb 2017208
Jan 2017208
Nov 2016189
Oct 2016226
Sept 2016240
Aug 2016208
Jul 2016208
Jun 2016207
May 2016206
Apr 2016208
Mar 2016208
Feb 2016189
Jan 2016192
Dec 2015208
Oct 2015208
Sept 2015212
Aug 2015215
Jul 2015214
Jun 2015214
May 2015209
Apr 2015198
Mar 2015179
Feb 2015181
Jan 2015196
Nov 2014181
Oct 2014190
Sept 2014195
Aug 2014194
Jul 2014195
Jun 2014198
May 2014192
Mar 2014198
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014194
Dec 2013201
Nov 2013201
Oct 2013208
Sept 2013212
Aug 2013225
Jul 2013244
Jun 2013247
May 2013226
Apr 2013216
Mar 2013213
Jan 2013200
Dec 2012209
Nov 2012203
Oct 2012203
Sept 2012282
Aug 2012256
Jul 2012238
May 2012208
Apr 2012182
Dec 2011215
Nov 2011202
Oct 2011204
Sept 2011187
Jul 2011230
Jun 2011208
May 2011224
Apr 2011208
Mar 2011202
Feb 2011184
Jan 2011183
Dec 2010203
Nov 2010180
Sept 2010217
Aug 2010207
Jul 2010207
Jun 2010208
May 2010220
Apr 2010202
Mar 2010202
Feb 2010203
Jan 2010214
Dec 2009226
Nov 2009223
Oct 2009223
Aug 2009247
Jul 2009245
Jun 2009245
May 2009243
Apr 2009229
Mar 2009221
Feb 2009247
Jan 2009245

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-597-51-retail-kg.