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Sorghum in Loga

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–257

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

162–269

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 269 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Loga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 269 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 201–258 232 194–281 290 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 176–251 210 172–274 259 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–257 201 160–302 254 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 160–262 198 137–378 246 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 162–269 206 138–376 253 –
Price history (181 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026221
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026258
Jun 2026250
May 2026233
Apr 2026222
Mar 2026235
Feb 2026208
Jan 2026192
Dec 2025190
Nov 2025189
Oct 2025187
Sept 2025234
Aug 2025259
Jul 2025259
Jun 2025259
May 2025259
Apr 2025259
Mar 2025255
Feb 2025255
Jan 2025257
Dec 2024269
Nov 2024278
Oct 2024333
Sept 2024389
Aug 2024407
Jul 2024372
Jun 2024374
May 2024355
Apr 2024333
Feb 2024278
Jan 2024288
Dec 2023274
Nov 2023264
Oct 2023283
Sept 2023302
Aug 2023297
Jul 2023252
Jun 2023242
May 2023246
Apr 2023241
Mar 2023264
Feb 2023224
Jan 2023237
Dec 2022219
Nov 2022280
Oct 2022182
Sept 2022242
Aug 2022273
Jul 2022267
Jun 2022273
May 2022273
Apr 2022297
Mar 2022297
Jan 2022237
Dec 2021237
Nov 2021241
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021255
Aug 2021255
Jul 2021259
Jun 2021223
May 2021223
Apr 2021227
Mar 2021220
Feb 2021225
Jan 2021204
Dec 2020211
Nov 2020185
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020257
Aug 2020231
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020191
May 2020189
Mar 2020193
Feb 2020192
Jan 2020189
Dec 2019185
Nov 2019185
Oct 2019185
Sept 2019189
Aug 2019189
Jul 2019192
Jun 2019190
May 2019189
Apr 2019189
Mar 2019189
Feb 2019189
Jan 2019189
Dec 2018189
Nov 2018211
Oct 2018189
Sept 2018245
Aug 2018245
Jul 2018245
Jun 2018244
May 2018208
Mar 2018227
Feb 2018231
Jan 2018231
Oct 2017246
Sept 2017215
Aug 2017293
Jul 2017275
Jun 2017246
May 2017236
Apr 2017235
Mar 2017196
Feb 2017196
Jan 2017196
Nov 2016197
Oct 2016236
Sept 2016240
Aug 2016220
Jul 2016215
Jun 2016210
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016170
Dec 2015203
Oct 2015203
Sept 2015232
Aug 2015232
Jul 2015232
Jun 2015232
May 2015232
Apr 2015232
Mar 2015182
Feb 2015232
Jan 2015232
Nov 2014232
Oct 2014232
Sept 2014232
Aug 2014232
Jul 2014232
Jun 2014232
May 2014232
Mar 2014232
Feb 2014232
Jan 2014232
Dec 2013232
Nov 2013232
Oct 2013232
Sept 2013232
Aug 2013252
Jul 2013279
Jun 2013262
May 2013257
Apr 2013231
Mar 2013203
Dec 2012205
Nov 2012204
Oct 2012214
Sept 2012225
Aug 2012265
Jul 2012227
May 2012220
Apr 2012192
Dec 2011218
Nov 2011191
Oct 2011214
Sept 2011188
Jul 2011217
Jun 2011196
May 2011198
Apr 2011198
Mar 2011198
Sept 2010201
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010209
Jun 2010204
May 2010216
Apr 2010199
Mar 2010198
Aug 2009222
Jul 2009216
Jun 2009204
May 2009200

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-597-65-retail-kg.