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Food basket in Maine Soroa

Diffa, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,691–2,960

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,666–3,028

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,844 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,691 and 2,960 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,666 and 3,028 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Maine Soroa: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,844 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,691 and 2,960 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,666 and 3,028 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,191–3,018 2,431 1,733–3,306
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,743–2,907 2,082 1,556–3,126
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,691–2,960 2,031 1,492–3,126
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,679–2,975 2,006 1,580–3,050
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,666–3,028 2,092 1,560–3,211
Cost history (198 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,748
Aug 20262,844
Jul 20263,132
Jun 20262,904
May 20262,496
Apr 20262,172
Mar 20262,328
Feb 20261,932
Jan 20261,764
Dec 20251,944
Nov 20252,124
Oct 20252,100
Sept 20252,268
Aug 20252,868
Jul 20253,372
Jun 20253,360
May 20252,988
Apr 20252,892
Mar 20252,916
Feb 20253,072
Jan 20253,072
Dec 20242,952
Nov 20243,084
Oct 20243,516
Sept 20244,524
Aug 20245,796
Jul 20245,688
Jun 20245,520
May 20244,392
Apr 20244,464
Mar 20244,128
Feb 20243,672
Jan 20243,636
Dec 20233,576
Nov 20234,200
Oct 20234,056
Sept 20234,320
Aug 20234,296
Jul 20233,816
Jun 20233,276
May 20233,120
Apr 20233,432
Mar 20233,396
Feb 20232,952
Jan 20233,096
Dec 20223,156
Nov 20223,144
Oct 20223,144
Sept 20224,956
Aug 20223,588
Jul 20223,456
Jun 20223,372
May 20223,564
Apr 20223,720
Mar 20223,540
Feb 20223,372
Jan 20223,420
Dec 20213,228
Nov 20212,520
Oct 20212,556
Sept 20213,492
Aug 20213,672
Jul 20213,768
Jun 20213,264
May 20213,420
Apr 20213,252
Mar 20213,396
Feb 20213,060
Jan 20213,108
Dec 20202,412
Nov 20202,616
Oct 20202,712
Sept 20203,180
Aug 20203,761
Jul 20203,432
Jun 20203,432
May 20203,192
Apr 20203,054
Mar 20202,628
Feb 20202,868
Jan 20202,436
Dec 20192,112
Nov 20192,196
Oct 20192,220
Sept 20192,196
Jul 20192,064
Jun 20192,016
May 20192,232
Apr 20192,424
Mar 20192,436
Feb 20192,316
Jan 20192,484
Dec 20182,484
Nov 20182,484
Oct 20182,724
Sept 20183,240
Aug 20183,240
Jul 20182,868
Apr 20183,024
Mar 20182,760
Feb 20182,640
Jan 20182,640
Dec 20172,640
Nov 20173,480
Aug 20173,612
Jul 20173,612
Jun 20173,096
May 20173,120
Apr 20173,000
Mar 20172,532
Feb 20173,060
Jan 20172,556
Nov 20162,040
Oct 20162,040
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20163,312
Jul 20162,880
Jun 20162,436
May 20162,352
Apr 20161,920
Mar 20161,776
Feb 20161,560
Jan 20161,788
Dec 20152,004
Oct 20152,100
Sept 20151,776
Aug 20152,112
Jul 20152,052
Jun 20152,112
May 20152,292
Apr 20152,424
Mar 20152,622
Feb 20152,205
Jan 20152,352
Nov 20142,867
Oct 20142,951
Sept 20143,133
Aug 20143,179
Jul 20143,183
Jun 20143,170
May 20142,801
Apr 20142,836
Mar 20142,803
Feb 20142,845
Jan 20142,915
Dec 20133,359
Nov 20133,363
Oct 20133,179
Sept 20133,456
Aug 20133,905
Jul 20133,849
Jun 20133,741
May 20133,205
Apr 20133,125
Mar 20132,858
Jan 20132,459
Dec 20122,283
Nov 20122,499
Oct 20122,928
Sept 20123,549
Aug 20123,705
Jul 20123,642
May 20123,213
Apr 20123,108
Dec 20112,802
Nov 20112,378
Oct 20112,256
Sept 20112,262
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,244
May 20112,166
Apr 20111,902
Mar 20111,914
Jan 20111,847
Dec 20101,620
Nov 20101,451
Oct 20101,895
Sept 20102,367
Aug 20102,964
Jul 20102,685
Jun 20102,532
May 20102,398
Apr 20102,338
Mar 20102,388
Feb 20102,328
Jan 20102,284
Dec 20092,326
Nov 20092,292
Oct 20092,325
Sept 20092,454
Aug 20092,677
Jul 20092,472
Jun 20092,184
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,388
Mar 20092,196
Feb 20092,349
Jan 20092,289

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186