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Food basket in Mangaize

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,555–3,813

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,369–3,962

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,504 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,555 and 3,813 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,369 and 3,962 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mangaize: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,504 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,555 and 3,813 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,369 and 3,962 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,125–3,858 3,410 2,749–4,076
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,722–3,757 3,159 2,189–3,971
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,555–3,813 3,098 2,139–3,829
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,494–3,915 3,104 1,952–4,340
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,369–3,962 3,114 1,918–4,611
Cost history (186 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,336
Aug 20263,504
Jul 20263,708
Jun 20264,152
May 20263,756
Apr 20263,228
Mar 20263,324
Feb 20263,408
Jan 20263,360
Dec 20253,600
Nov 20253,888
Oct 20253,444
Sept 20253,852
Aug 20254,068
Jul 20254,308
Jun 20254,248
May 20253,900
Apr 20254,008
Mar 20254,140
Feb 20253,948
Jan 20253,672
Dec 20243,828
Nov 20244,092
Oct 20244,548
Sept 20245,904
Aug 20246,624
Jul 20245,928
Jun 20245,568
May 20244,872
Apr 20244,620
Mar 20244,260
Feb 20244,164
Jan 20243,960
Dec 20233,840
Nov 20234,200
Oct 20234,080
Sept 20234,800
Aug 20234,812
Jul 20234,536
Jun 20234,596
May 20233,924
Apr 20233,912
Mar 20233,780
Feb 20233,552
Jan 20233,456
Dec 20223,420
Nov 20223,168
Oct 20223,564
Sept 20224,032
Aug 20224,056
Jul 20224,548
Jun 20224,632
May 20224,116
Apr 20223,708
Mar 20223,708
Feb 20223,792
Jan 20223,564
Dec 20213,504
Nov 20213,900
Oct 20213,420
Sept 20213,672
Aug 20213,936
Jul 20213,768
Jun 20213,708
May 20213,648
Apr 20213,420
Mar 20213,204
Feb 20213,216
Jan 20213,192
Dec 20202,580
Nov 20202,652
Oct 20203,504
Sept 20203,480
Aug 20203,581
Jul 20203,471
Jun 20203,108
May 20203,180
Apr 20203,078
Mar 20203,060
Feb 20203,216
Jan 20202,952
Dec 20193,264
Nov 20192,964
Oct 20192,856
Sept 20192,916
Aug 20192,916
Jul 20193,612
Jun 20192,904
May 20192,964
Apr 20193,192
Mar 20193,144
Feb 20193,156
Jan 20193,708
Dec 20183,660
Nov 20183,228
Oct 20183,420
Sept 20183,672
Aug 20183,780
Jul 20183,756
Jun 20184,176
May 20183,804
Apr 20183,540
Mar 20183,600
Feb 20183,396
Jan 20183,552
Dec 20173,552
Nov 20173,552
Oct 20173,552
Sept 20173,840
Aug 20173,864
Jul 20173,828
May 20173,468
Mar 20172,772
Feb 20172,676
Jan 20172,712
Nov 20162,664
Oct 20163,204
Sept 20163,432
Aug 20163,264
Jul 20163,264
Jun 20163,636
May 20163,636
Mar 20163,396
Feb 20163,612
Jan 20163,720
Dec 20153,588
Jun 20153,900
May 20153,348
Apr 20153,696
Feb 20153,556
Sept 20143,556
Aug 20143,564
Jul 20143,696
Jun 20143,696
May 20143,611
Apr 20143,692
Mar 20143,582
Feb 20143,619
Jan 20143,692
Dec 20133,692
Nov 20133,582
Aug 20133,696
Jul 20133,696
May 20133,696
Apr 20133,671
Mar 20133,144
Jan 20133,696
Dec 20123,134
Nov 20122,661
Oct 20123,088
Sept 20124,254
Aug 20124,020
Jul 20124,020
May 20123,768
Apr 20123,564
Dec 20113,504
Nov 20113,084
Sept 20113,108
Jul 20112,712
Jun 20112,688
May 20112,670
Apr 20112,652
Mar 20112,568
Jan 20112,687
Dec 20102,688
Nov 20102,571
Oct 20103,108
Sept 20103,445
Aug 20103,512
Jul 20103,098
Jun 20103,082
Apr 20103,231
Mar 20103,228
Jan 20103,108
Dec 20093,173
Nov 20093,171
Oct 20092,984
Sept 20093,510
Aug 20093,611
Jul 20093,132
Jun 20092,828
May 20093,115
Apr 20092,670
Mar 20092,670
Feb 20092,652
Jan 20092,652

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186