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Food basket in Mayahi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,831–2,937

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,747–3,056

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,772 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,831 and 2,937 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,747 and 3,056 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mayahi: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,772 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,831 and 2,937 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,747 and 3,056 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,101–2,879 2,370 1,851–2,957
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,712–2,767 2,070 1,511–2,819
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,831–2,937 2,202 1,632–3,043
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,830–2,995 2,216 1,642–3,260
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,747–3,056 2,253 1,433–3,544
Cost history (202 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,868
Aug 20262,772
Jul 20263,012
Jun 20263,204
May 20262,844
Apr 20262,772
Mar 20262,844
Feb 20262,424
Jan 20262,016
Dec 20252,100
Nov 20252,388
Oct 20252,184
Sept 20252,760
Aug 20253,276
Jul 20253,876
Jun 20253,984
May 20253,768
Apr 20253,744
Mar 20253,696
Feb 20253,804
Jan 20253,780
Dec 20243,456
Nov 20243,768
Oct 20243,372
Sept 20243,672
Aug 20245,376
Jul 20245,676
Jun 20244,596
May 20244,476
Apr 20243,852
Mar 20243,720
Feb 20243,684
Jan 20243,228
Dec 20232,976
Nov 20232,808
Oct 20232,592
Sept 20232,904
Aug 20233,408
Jul 20233,324
Jun 20233,384
May 20232,928
Apr 20232,928
Mar 20232,904
Feb 20232,868
Jan 20232,796
Dec 20222,772
Nov 20223,432
Oct 20222,652
Sept 20223,192
Aug 20223,480
Jul 20223,720
Jun 20223,552
May 20223,480
Apr 20223,336
Mar 20223,300
Feb 20223,144
Jan 20223,180
Dec 20212,856
Nov 20212,676
Oct 20212,400
Sept 20213,384
Aug 20213,756
Jul 20213,540
Jun 20213,492
May 20213,432
Apr 20213,372
Mar 20212,940
Feb 20213,216
Jan 20212,928
Dec 20203,708
Nov 20202,352
Oct 20202,508
Sept 20202,784
Aug 20203,594
Jul 20203,711
Jun 20203,108
May 20202,952
Apr 20202,784
Mar 20202,760
Feb 20202,640
Jan 20202,472
Dec 20191,872
Nov 20192,028
Oct 20191,776
Sept 20192,052
Aug 20192,148
Jul 20192,100
Jun 20192,244
May 20192,352
Apr 20192,580
Mar 20192,400
Feb 20192,196
Jan 20192,220
Dec 20182,148
Nov 20182,124
Oct 20181,884
Sept 20182,544
Aug 20183,012
Jul 20183,168
May 20183,048
Apr 20182,868
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,400
Jan 20182,196
Dec 20172,232
Nov 20172,352
Oct 20171,728
Sept 20172,208
Aug 20173,384
Jul 20173,924
Jun 20173,624
May 20173,672
Apr 20173,444
Mar 20173,096
Feb 20172,940
Jan 20172,352
Nov 20162,172
Oct 20162,076
Sept 20162,496
Aug 20162,820
Jul 20162,724
Jun 20162,052
May 20162,208
Mar 20161,596
Feb 20161,716
Jan 20161,656
Dec 20151,560
Oct 20151,584
Sept 20151,728
Aug 20151,668
Jul 20151,764
Jun 20151,932
May 20152,052
Apr 20151,764
Mar 20151,668
Feb 20151,589
Jan 20151,488
Nov 20141,737
Oct 20142,134
Sept 20142,163
Aug 20142,557
Jul 20142,613
Jun 20142,674
May 20142,665
Apr 20142,601
Mar 20142,595
Feb 20142,463
Jan 20142,581
Dec 20132,500
Nov 20132,584
Oct 20132,445
Sept 20132,631
Aug 20133,526
Jul 20133,714
Jun 20133,593
May 20133,173
Apr 20133,456
Mar 20133,027
Jan 20132,702
Dec 20122,472
Nov 20122,491
Oct 20122,083
Sept 20122,889
Aug 20124,053
Jul 20123,702
May 20123,262
Apr 20123,108
Dec 20112,340
Nov 20112,115
Oct 20111,626
Sept 20111,602
Jul 20111,716
Jun 20111,668
May 20111,956
Apr 20111,793
Mar 20111,656
Feb 20111,698
Jan 20111,560
Dec 20101,584
Nov 20101,369
Oct 20101,263
Sept 20101,662
Aug 20102,760
Jul 20102,788
Jun 20102,738
May 20102,703
Apr 20102,442
Mar 20102,235
Feb 20102,466
Jan 20102,220
Dec 20091,969
Nov 20091,740
Oct 20091,755
Sept 20092,047
Aug 20092,598
Jul 20092,506
Jun 20092,004
May 20092,000
Apr 20092,040
Mar 20091,971
Feb 20092,093
Jan 20092,004

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186