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Food basket in Nguigmi

Diffa, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,466–4,067

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,500–4,268

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,176 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,466 and 4,067 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,500 and 4,268 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Nguigmi: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,176 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,466 and 4,067 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,500 and 4,268 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,656); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,315–4,299 3,807 2,950–4,549
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,845–4,170 3,332 2,336–4,480
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,466–4,067 3,082 2,308–4,530
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,365–4,150 3,051 2,038–5,265
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,500–4,268 3,204 2,115–5,656
Cost history (357 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,564
Aug 20264,176
Jul 20263,900
Jun 20263,504
May 20263,300
Apr 20263,156
Mar 20263,060
Feb 20262,952
Jan 20262,916
Dec 20253,036
Nov 20253,312
Oct 20253,288
Sept 20253,600
Aug 20253,924
Jul 20254,512
Jun 20254,164
May 20254,032
Apr 20253,888
Mar 20253,972
Feb 20254,020
Jan 20253,972
Dec 20243,672
Nov 20244,032
Oct 20244,092
Sept 20245,400
Aug 20246,060
Jul 20245,712
Jun 20245,064
May 20244,956
Apr 20244,836
Mar 20244,200
Feb 20243,984
Jan 20243,828
Dec 20233,852
Nov 20234,032
Oct 20234,404
Sept 20235,328
Aug 20234,776
Jul 20234,116
May 20234,668
Apr 20234,248
Mar 20233,792
Feb 20232,532
Jan 20233,972
Dec 20223,480
Oct 20223,588
Sept 20223,648
Aug 20223,924
Jul 20223,996
Jun 20224,032
May 20223,876
Apr 20223,396
Mar 20223,336
Feb 20222,976
Jan 20222,832
Dec 20212,892
Nov 20212,820
Oct 20213,732
Sept 20214,236
Aug 20214,488
Jul 20214,092
May 20214,272
Apr 20214,020
Mar 20213,144
Feb 20213,576
Jan 20213,528
Dec 20202,436
Nov 20202,496
Oct 20204,116
Sept 20204,296
Aug 20204,152
Jul 20203,450
Jun 20203,108
May 20202,976
Apr 20203,027
Mar 20203,192
Feb 20203,132
Jan 20203,036
Dec 20192,856
Nov 20192,736
Oct 20192,736
Sept 20192,736
Jul 20192,736
May 20192,688
Apr 20192,688
Mar 20192,640
Feb 20192,604
Jan 20192,556
Dec 20182,556
Nov 20182,940
Oct 20183,060
Sept 20183,396
Aug 20183,456
May 20182,736
Apr 20182,772
Mar 20182,988
Feb 20182,952
Jan 20182,568
Dec 20172,640
Nov 20173,132
Oct 20173,108
Sept 20173,576
Aug 20173,468
Jun 20174,212
May 20173,300
Apr 20174,020
Mar 20173,456
Feb 20172,880
Jan 20172,580
Nov 20162,364
Oct 20162,484
Sept 20163,276
Aug 20163,312
Jun 20162,832
May 20162,976
Mar 20162,592
Feb 20162,688
Jan 20162,496
Dec 20152,724
Oct 20152,700
Sept 20152,796
Aug 20152,832
Jul 20152,904
Jun 20152,928
May 20152,928
Apr 20153,000
Mar 20152,908
Feb 20153,234
Jan 20153,281
Nov 20143,639
Oct 20143,906
Sept 20143,822
Aug 20143,871
Jun 20143,745
May 20143,708
Apr 20143,608
Mar 20143,634
Feb 20143,876
Jan 20143,649
Dec 20133,630
Nov 20133,428
Oct 20133,753
Sept 20133,970
Aug 20134,063
Jul 20133,936
Jun 20133,720
May 20133,651
Apr 20133,459
Mar 20133,360
Feb 20133,204
Jan 20133,151
Dec 20123,089
Nov 20123,041
Oct 20122,909
Sept 20124,148
Aug 20123,758
Jul 20124,106
May 20124,332
Apr 20123,786
Mar 20123,122
Feb 20123,072
Jan 20123,048
Dec 20112,884
Nov 20112,692
Oct 20112,832
Sept 20112,707
Jul 20112,520
Jun 20112,628
May 20112,715
Apr 20112,472
Mar 20112,420
Jan 20112,191
Nov 20102,356
Oct 20102,546
Sept 20102,953
Aug 20103,538
Jun 20102,666
May 20102,790
Apr 20102,820
Mar 20102,908
Feb 20102,652
Jan 20102,790
Dec 20092,929
Nov 20092,616
Oct 20092,751
Sept 20093,228
Aug 20093,229
Jul 20093,031
Jun 20092,544
May 20092,412
Apr 20092,668
Mar 20092,652
Feb 20092,920
Jan 20093,180
Dec 20083,172
Aug 20083,840
Jun 20083,132
May 20083,060
Apr 20083,120
Mar 20082,952
Feb 20083,168
Jan 20082,988
Dec 20072,609
Nov 20072,622
Oct 20072,620
Sept 20072,969
Aug 20072,575
Jun 20072,406
May 20072,733
Apr 20072,583
Mar 20072,586
Feb 20072,867
Jan 20072,620
Dec 20062,575
Nov 20062,597
Oct 20062,754
Sept 20062,724
Aug 20063,044
Jul 20062,564
Jun 20062,792
May 20062,714
Apr 20062,714
Mar 20063,035
Feb 20062,899
Jan 20062,787
Dec 20052,975
Nov 20051,967
Oct 20052,843
Sept 20052,975
Aug 20054,000
Jul 20053,957
Jun 20053,634
May 20053,361
Apr 20053,497
Mar 20053,174
Feb 20052,603
Jan 20052,449
Dec 20042,446
Nov 20042,469
Sept 20042,328
Aug 20042,093
Jul 20041,976
Jun 20042,044
May 20041,946
Apr 20041,744
Mar 20041,685
Feb 20041,593
Jan 20041,700
Dec 20031,617
Nov 20031,707
Oct 20031,747
Sept 20031,950
Aug 20032,290
Jul 20032,301
Jun 20032,337
May 20032,272
Apr 20032,160
Mar 20032,135
Feb 20031,890
Jan 20031,907
Dec 20021,812
Nov 20022,100
Oct 20022,970
Sept 20023,102
Aug 20023,076
Jul 20023,060
Jun 20022,664
Apr 20022,400
Mar 20021,992
Feb 20021,938
Jan 20022,024
Dec 20011,920
Nov 20011,980
Oct 20012,088
Sept 20012,112
Aug 20012,100
Jun 20012,808
May 20012,664
Apr 20012,748
Mar 20011,812
Feb 20011,788
Jan 20011,728
Sept 20001,548
Aug 20001,548
Jul 20001,644
Jun 20001,428
May 20001,452
Apr 20001,632
Mar 20001,236
Feb 20001,236
Jan 20001,224
Dec 19991,440
Nov 19991,236
Oct 19991,236
Sept 19991,248
Aug 19991,344
Jul 19991,308
Jun 19991,236
May 19991,248
Apr 19991,248
Mar 19991,236
Feb 19991,344
Jan 19991,248
Dec 19981,260
Nov 19981,464
Oct 19981,464
Sept 19981,872
Aug 19983,096
Jun 19982,580
May 19982,472
Apr 19982,268
Mar 19981,860
Feb 19981,872
Jan 19981,872
Dec 19971,764
Nov 19971,644
Oct 19971,752
Jun 19971,908
May 19971,848
Apr 19971,884
Mar 19971,548
Feb 19971,440
Jan 19971,860
Dec 19961,344
Nov 19961,320
Oct 19961,476
Aug 19961,668
Jul 19961,584
Jun 19961,488
May 19961,488
Apr 19961,464
Mar 19961,104
Feb 19961,104
Jan 19961,200
Dec 19951,200
Nov 19951,176
Oct 19951,140
Sept 19951,140
Aug 19951,092
Jul 1995972
Jun 1995912
May 1995912
Apr 1995936
Mar 1995936
Feb 19951,068
Jan 19951,140
Dec 19941,020
Nov 1994912
Oct 19941,140
Sept 19941,140
Aug 19941,140
Jun 19941,152
May 19941,164
Apr 19941,032
Mar 19941,056
Feb 19941,164
Jan 1994888

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186