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Food basket in Ouallam

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,161–3,324

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,172–3,544

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,216 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,161 and 3,324 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,172 and 3,544 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ouallam: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,216 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,161 and 3,324 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,172 and 3,544 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,634–3,448 3,029 2,396–3,618
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,328–3,368 2,762 2,025–3,469
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,161–3,324 2,632 1,848–3,400
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,171–3,464 2,727 1,769–3,660
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,172–3,544 2,824 1,885–3,548
Cost history (355 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,204
Aug 20263,216
Jul 20263,420
Jun 20263,516
May 20263,108
Apr 20262,892
Mar 20262,916
Feb 20262,928
Jan 20263,300
Dec 20253,360
Nov 20253,384
Oct 20252,940
Sept 20253,600
Aug 20253,696
Jul 20253,852
Jun 20254,008
May 20253,720
Apr 20253,804
Mar 20253,852
Feb 20253,900
Jan 20254,200
Dec 20243,672
Nov 20243,360
Oct 20243,384
Sept 20244,920
Aug 20245,412
Jul 20245,592
Jun 20245,256
May 20244,716
Apr 20244,404
Mar 20244,164
Feb 20244,068
Jan 20243,612
Dec 20233,852
Nov 20233,876
Oct 20233,840
Sept 20234,404
Aug 20234,224
Jul 20234,308
Jun 20234,056
May 20233,900
Apr 20233,876
Mar 20233,660
Feb 20233,660
Jan 20233,648
Dec 20223,708
Nov 20222,892
Oct 20223,264
Sept 20223,816
Aug 20224,200
Jul 20223,780
Jun 20223,768
May 20223,780
Apr 20223,264
Mar 20223,264
Feb 20223,552
Jan 20223,372
Dec 20213,348
Nov 20213,324
Oct 20213,084
Sept 20213,324
Aug 20213,240
Jul 20213,132
Jun 20213,000
May 20213,120
Apr 20213,120
Mar 20212,628
Feb 20213,204
Jan 20213,060
Dec 20202,844
Nov 20202,412
Oct 20203,132
Sept 20203,324
Aug 20203,324
Jul 20203,480
Jun 20203,252
May 20203,252
Apr 20203,360
Mar 20203,108
Feb 20203,192
Jan 20203,204
Dec 20193,396
Nov 20193,396
Oct 20193,204
Sept 20193,396
Aug 20193,384
Jul 20192,472
Jun 20193,396
May 20193,408
Mar 20193,396
Feb 20193,384
Nov 20183,384
Sept 20184,200
Aug 20184,200
Jun 20184,200
May 20184,092
Feb 20183,960
Oct 20173,552
Sept 20174,116
Aug 20174,188
Jul 20174,032
Jun 20174,056
May 20173,912
Mar 20173,192
Feb 20172,916
Oct 20163,684
Sept 20163,624
Jun 20163,360
May 20162,808
Apr 20162,868
Mar 20162,748
Feb 20162,748
Jan 20162,748
Dec 20152,916
Oct 20152,916
Sept 20152,916
Aug 20152,916
Jul 20152,916
Jun 20152,916
May 20152,916
Apr 20152,988
Mar 20153,372
Feb 20153,372
Jan 20153,372
Nov 20143,420
Oct 20143,420
Sept 20143,420
Aug 20143,540
Jul 20143,540
Jun 20143,540
May 20142,983
Apr 20143,420
Feb 20143,420
Jan 20143,420
Dec 20133,420
Nov 20133,420
Oct 20133,420
Aug 20133,336
Jul 20133,336
Jun 20133,336
May 20133,336
Apr 20133,336
Mar 20133,336
Feb 20133,048
Jan 20133,048
Dec 20123,492
Nov 20123,384
Oct 20124,376
Sept 20124,528
Aug 20123,806
Jul 20124,332
May 20123,750
Apr 20123,468
Mar 20123,454
Feb 20123,396
Jan 20123,396
Dec 20113,300
Nov 20112,885
Oct 20112,832
Sept 20113,016
Jul 20112,868
Jun 20112,607
May 20112,670
Apr 20112,820
Mar 20112,808
Feb 20112,778
Jan 20112,844
Dec 20102,934
Nov 20102,400
Oct 20102,738
Sept 20103,462
Aug 20103,470
Jul 20103,429
Jun 20103,300
May 20103,240
Apr 20103,113
Mar 20103,108
Jan 20103,030
Dec 20092,755
Nov 20093,072
Oct 20092,582
Sept 20093,750
Aug 20093,688
Jul 20093,252
Jun 20093,091
May 20092,995
Apr 20093,114
Mar 20093,120
Feb 20092,844
Jan 20092,592
Dec 20082,808
Nov 20082,626
Oct 20082,580
Sept 20083,000
Aug 20082,976
Jul 20082,784
Jun 20082,712
May 20082,544
Apr 20082,592
Mar 20082,820
Feb 20082,544
Jan 20082,424
Dec 20072,046
Nov 20072,046
Oct 20072,569
Sept 20072,585
Aug 20072,451
Jul 20072,296
Jun 20072,416
May 20072,165
Apr 20071,960
Mar 20072,134
Feb 20072,000
Jan 20072,000
Dec 20061,956
Nov 20061,741
Oct 20062,291
Sept 20062,429
Aug 20062,521
Jul 20062,342
Jun 20062,505
May 20062,391
Apr 20062,329
Mar 20062,318
Feb 20062,170
Jan 20062,114
Dec 20051,867
Nov 20051,969
Oct 20052,408
Sept 20053,394
Aug 20054,451
Jul 20053,832
Jun 20053,285
May 20052,916
Apr 20052,736
Mar 20052,791
Feb 20052,284
Jan 20052,109
Dec 20042,038
Nov 20041,845
Oct 20042,016
Sept 20041,978
Aug 20041,949
Jul 20041,856
Jun 20041,832
May 20041,851
Apr 20041,716
Mar 20041,784
Feb 20041,774
Jan 20041,640
Dec 20031,372
Nov 20031,353
Oct 20031,628
Sept 20031,732
Aug 20031,868
Jul 20032,319
Jun 20032,356
May 20032,343
Apr 20032,352
Mar 20032,171
Feb 20032,376
Jan 20032,061
Dec 20021,872
Nov 20021,368
Oct 20022,040
Sept 20022,724
Aug 20023,000
Jul 20022,862
Jun 20022,664
May 20022,352
Apr 20022,376
Mar 20022,268
Feb 20022,022
Jan 20021,544
Dec 20011,368
Nov 20011,248
Oct 20011,560
Sept 20012,256
Aug 20012,652
Jul 20012,580
Jun 20012,556
May 20012,544
Apr 20012,682
Mar 20012,132
Feb 20011,938
Jan 20011,872
Dec 20001,764
Nov 20001,572
Oct 20001,572
Sept 20001,572
Aug 20001,620
Jun 20001,668
May 20001,668
Apr 20001,524
Mar 20001,524
Feb 20001,464
Jan 20001,284
Oct 19991,284
Sept 19991,152
Aug 19991,020
Jul 19991,536
Jun 19991,524
Oct 19981,560
Sept 19982,292
Aug 19982,784
Jul 19982,880
Jun 19982,760
May 19982,760
Apr 19982,532
Mar 19982,040
Feb 19982,016
Jan 19982,040
Dec 19972,040
Nov 19971,932
Oct 19971,896
Sept 19971,956
Aug 19972,436
Jul 19972,256
Jun 19972,472
May 19972,328
Apr 19972,328
Feb 19971,500
Dec 19961,284
Nov 19961,284
Oct 19961,284
Sept 19961,764
Aug 19962,196
Jul 19961,644
Jun 19961,620
May 19961,620
Apr 19961,488
Mar 19961,176
Feb 19961,152
Jan 19961,164
Oct 19951,056
Sept 1995972
Aug 19951,152
Jul 19951,164
Jun 19951,164
May 19951,128
Apr 1995996
Mar 1995936
Feb 1995900
Jan 1995780
Dec 1994804
Oct 19941,272
Sept 19941,272
Aug 19941,272
Jul 19941,380
Jun 19941,248
May 19941,236
Apr 19941,104
Mar 19941,080
Feb 19941,092
Jan 1994900

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186