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Food basket in Sabon Machi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,533–2,596

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,508–2,745

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,280 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,533 and 2,596 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,508 and 2,745 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sabon Machi: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,280 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,533 and 2,596 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,508 and 2,745 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,683–2,403 1,984 1,575–2,645
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,463–2,472 1,826 1,362–2,544
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,533–2,596 1,907 1,422–2,836
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,529–2,604 1,910 1,381–3,261
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,508–2,745 1,923 1,358–3,339
Cost history (336 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,340
Aug 20262,280
Jul 20262,904
Jun 20262,856
May 20262,628
Apr 20262,172
Mar 20262,100
Feb 20262,064
Jan 20261,908
Dec 20251,980
Nov 20252,244
Oct 20251,956
Sept 20252,064
Aug 20252,736
Jul 20253,048
Jun 20253,072
May 20253,000
Apr 20253,000
Mar 20253,036
Feb 20253,276
Jan 20253,336
Dec 20243,096
Nov 20242,796
Oct 20243,000
Sept 20243,048
Aug 20244,728
Jul 20244,884
Jun 20244,392
May 20243,708
Apr 20243,360
Mar 20243,264
Feb 20243,000
Jan 20242,700
Dec 20232,676
Nov 20232,856
Oct 20232,460
Sept 20232,868
Aug 20233,156
Jul 20232,952
Jun 20232,964
May 20232,688
Apr 20232,628
Mar 20232,532
Feb 20232,400
Jan 20232,304
Dec 20222,352
Nov 20223,624
Oct 20222,148
Sept 20222,832
Aug 20223,156
Jul 20223,396
Jun 20223,228
May 20223,000
Apr 20223,000
Mar 20223,000
Feb 20223,000
Jan 20222,736
Dec 20212,508
Nov 20212,280
Oct 20212,112
Sept 20212,484
Aug 20213,180
Jul 20212,940
Jun 20212,820
May 20212,892
Apr 20212,724
Feb 20212,652
Jan 20212,484
Dec 20202,832
Nov 20201,908
Oct 20201,824
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20203,576
Jul 20203,102
Jun 20202,508
May 20202,280
Apr 20202,355
Mar 20202,232
Feb 20202,112
Jan 20201,980
Dec 20191,584
Nov 20191,596
Oct 20191,584
Sept 20191,596
Aug 20191,728
Jul 20191,836
Jun 20191,752
May 20192,100
Apr 20192,232
Mar 20191,848
Feb 20191,800
Jan 20191,740
Dec 20181,764
Nov 20181,776
Oct 20181,716
Sept 20181,824
Aug 20182,892
Jul 20182,892
May 20182,892
Apr 20182,664
Mar 20182,448
Feb 20182,352
Jan 20182,256
Dec 20172,220
Nov 20172,172
Oct 20171,812
Sept 20171,860
Aug 20173,216
Jul 20173,360
Jun 20173,144
May 20173,228
Apr 20172,940
Mar 20172,556
Feb 20172,328
Jan 20171,884
Nov 20162,028
Oct 20162,160
Sept 20162,376
Aug 20162,916
Jul 20163,000
Jun 20162,376
May 20162,496
Feb 20161,800
Jan 20161,752
Dec 20151,548
Oct 20151,560
Sept 20151,668
Aug 20151,596
Jul 20151,704
Jun 20151,704
May 20151,764
Apr 20151,632
Mar 20151,283
Feb 20151,332
Jan 20151,536
Nov 20141,667
Oct 20141,668
Sept 20141,933
Aug 20142,046
Jul 20142,327
Jun 20142,291
May 20142,318
Apr 20142,345
Mar 20142,345
Feb 20142,370
Jan 20142,102
Dec 20132,294
Nov 20132,472
Oct 20132,244
Sept 20132,684
Aug 20133,492
Jul 20133,612
Jun 20133,612
May 20133,075
Apr 20133,069
Mar 20133,038
Feb 20132,970
Jan 20132,587
Dec 20122,508
Nov 20122,226
Oct 20122,160
Sept 20122,451
Aug 20123,648
Jul 20123,312
May 20123,058
Apr 20122,886
Mar 20122,617
Feb 20122,422
Jan 20122,504
Dec 20112,359
Nov 20112,176
Oct 20111,854
Sept 20111,495
Jul 20111,620
Jun 20111,704
May 20111,752
Apr 20111,720
Mar 20111,668
Jan 20111,620
Nov 20101,408
Oct 20101,423
Sept 20101,719
Aug 20102,697
Jul 20102,603
Jun 20102,291
May 20102,295
Apr 20102,330
Mar 20102,228
Feb 20102,096
Jan 20101,974
Dec 20091,824
Nov 20091,800
Oct 20091,740
Sept 20091,824
Aug 20092,424
Jul 20092,280
Jun 20092,000
May 20091,964
Apr 20091,924
Mar 20091,884
Feb 20092,040
Jan 20092,016
Dec 20081,776
Nov 20081,627
Oct 20081,332
Sept 20081,596
Aug 20082,040
Jul 20081,956
Jun 20081,752
May 20081,620
Apr 20081,572
Mar 20081,680
Feb 20081,452
Jan 20081,332
Dec 20071,074
Nov 20071,182
Oct 20071,036
Sept 20071,148
Aug 20071,233
Jul 20071,441
Jun 20071,371
May 20071,391
Apr 20071,448
Mar 20071,381
Feb 20071,433
Jan 20071,390
Dec 20061,280
Nov 20061,380
Oct 20061,145
Sept 20061,400
Aug 20061,649
Jul 20061,869
Jun 20061,774
May 20061,819
Apr 20061,804
Mar 20061,682
Sept 20051,888
Aug 20052,822
Jul 20053,197
Jun 20052,298
May 20052,143
Apr 20052,016
Mar 20051,825
Feb 20051,722
Jan 20051,431
Dec 20041,319
Nov 20041,324
Oct 20041,273
Sept 20041,230
Aug 20041,592
Oct 2003908
Sept 2003954
Aug 2003991
Jun 20031,317
May 20031,381
Apr 20031,480
Mar 20031,457
Feb 20031,421
Jan 20031,392
Dec 20021,200
Nov 20021,368
Oct 20021,176
Sept 20021,524
Aug 20022,388
May 20022,064
Feb 20021,644
Jan 20021,428
Jun 20012,508
May 20011,968
Apr 20012,352
Mar 20011,875
Feb 20011,427
Jan 20011,267
Dec 20001,284
Nov 20001,164
Oct 2000924
Sept 2000984
Aug 20001,056
Jul 20001,332
Jun 20001,236
May 20001,380
Apr 20001,344
Mar 20001,176
Feb 20001,020
Jan 20001,020
Nov 1999888
Oct 1999840
Sept 1999804
Aug 1999840
Jul 1999948
Jun 1999912
May 1999924
Apr 1999924
Mar 1999948
Feb 1999768
Jan 1999768
Dec 1998804
Nov 1998900
Oct 1998876
Sept 19981,092
Aug 19982,016
Jul 19982,508
Jun 19981,968
May 19981,824
Apr 19981,932
Mar 19981,668
Feb 19981,536
Jan 19981,428
Dec 19971,332
Nov 19971,320
Oct 19971,212
Sept 19971,032
Aug 19971,260
Jul 19971,680
Jun 19971,380
May 19971,392
Apr 19971,344
Mar 19971,236
Feb 19971,140
Jan 1997984
Dec 1996936
Nov 1996984
Oct 1996696
Sept 19961,104
Aug 19961,068
Jul 19961,104
Jun 19961,056
Nov 1995636
Aug 1994852
Jul 1994876
Jun 1994888
May 1994732
Apr 1994684
Mar 1994672
Feb 1994660
Jan 1994492

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186