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Food basket in Tchadoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,591–2,506

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,506–2,673

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,280 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,591 and 2,506 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,506 and 2,673 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tchadoua: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,280 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,591 and 2,506 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,506 and 2,673 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,762–2,413 1,995 1,575–2,551
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,563–2,397 1,880 1,507–2,508
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,591–2,506 1,899 1,457–3,052
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,559–2,566 1,911 1,357–3,645
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,506–2,673 1,954 1,259–3,406
Cost history (196 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,112
Aug 20262,280
Jul 20262,772
Jun 20262,724
May 20262,520
Apr 20262,172
Mar 20262,220
Feb 20262,064
Jan 20261,920
Dec 20252,052
Nov 20252,136
Oct 20252,124
Sept 20252,292
Aug 20252,664
Jul 20253,264
Jun 20253,324
May 20253,192
Apr 20253,348
Mar 20253,420
Feb 20253,540
Jan 20253,588
Dec 20243,264
Nov 20243,144
Oct 20243,036
Sept 20243,204
Aug 20245,148
Jul 20245,196
Jun 20244,644
May 20244,128
Apr 20243,672
Mar 20243,396
Feb 20243,348
Jan 20243,000
Dec 20232,820
Nov 20232,988
Oct 20232,736
Sept 20233,168
Aug 20233,204
Jul 20233,456
Jun 20233,228
May 20232,916
Apr 20232,916
Mar 20232,772
Feb 20232,700
Jan 20232,580
Dec 20222,640
Nov 20222,568
Oct 20222,484
Sept 20222,976
Aug 20223,060
Jul 20223,648
Jun 20223,528
May 20223,288
Apr 20223,228
Mar 20223,276
Feb 20223,132
Jan 20223,012
Dec 20212,748
Nov 20212,796
Oct 20212,556
Sept 20213,060
Aug 20213,636
Jul 20213,432
Jun 20213,216
May 20213,168
Apr 20213,204
Mar 20213,036
Feb 20212,928
Jan 20212,640
Dec 20202,556
Nov 20202,256
Oct 20202,244
Sept 20202,640
Aug 20203,748
Jul 20203,384
May 20202,568
Mar 20202,724
Feb 20202,592
Jan 20202,364
Dec 20192,064
Nov 20192,172
Oct 20191,800
Sept 20191,836
Aug 20192,028
Jul 20191,932
Jun 20191,860
May 20192,004
Apr 20192,328
Mar 20192,232
Feb 20192,064
Jan 20191,944
Dec 20181,944
Nov 20181,956
Oct 20181,860
Sept 20182,040
Aug 20182,424
Jul 20182,880
May 20182,868
Apr 20182,736
Mar 20182,508
Feb 20182,376
Jan 20182,352
Dec 20172,328
Nov 20172,364
Oct 20172,112
Sept 20172,040
Aug 20173,624
Jul 20173,252
Jun 20173,252
May 20173,264
Apr 20173,084
Mar 20172,760
Feb 20172,352
Jan 20172,244
Nov 20161,944
Aug 20162,568
Jul 20162,448
Jun 20162,052
May 20162,028
Apr 20161,908
Mar 20161,908
Feb 20161,644
Jan 20161,620
Dec 20151,632
Oct 20151,572
Sept 20151,632
Aug 20151,692
Jul 20151,800
Jun 20151,800
May 20151,812
Apr 20151,932
Mar 20151,598
Feb 20151,578
Jan 20151,548
Nov 20141,661
Oct 20141,756
Sept 20141,901
Aug 20142,058
Jul 20142,390
Jun 20142,389
May 20142,259
Apr 20142,564
Mar 20142,384
Feb 20142,330
Jan 20142,263
Dec 20132,443
Nov 20132,532
Oct 20132,523
Sept 20132,687
Aug 20133,141
Jul 20133,495
Jun 20133,433
May 20132,848
Apr 20133,155
Mar 20133,050
Jan 20132,541
Dec 20122,538
Aug 20123,485
Jul 20123,492
May 20123,070
Apr 20122,994
Dec 20112,556
Nov 20112,171
Oct 20111,884
Sept 20111,588
Jul 20111,776
Jun 20111,848
May 20112,028
Apr 20111,886
Mar 20111,668
Feb 20111,722
Jan 20111,736
Dec 20101,722
Nov 20101,511
Oct 20101,597
Sept 20101,719
Aug 20102,509
Jul 20102,520
Jun 20102,678
May 20102,540
Apr 20102,425
Mar 20102,157
Feb 20102,262
Jan 20102,124
Dec 20091,980
Nov 20091,956
Oct 20091,860
Sept 20091,830
Aug 20092,427
Jul 20092,166
Jun 20091,910
May 20091,847
Apr 20091,878
Mar 20091,890
Feb 20091,983
Jan 20091,959

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186