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Food basket in Tchintabaraden

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,370–3,607

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,301–3,827

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,370 and 3,607 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,301 and 3,827 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tchintabaraden: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,370 and 3,607 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,301 and 3,827 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,907–3,684 3,259 2,728–3,736
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,521–3,576 2,929 2,336–3,708
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,370–3,607 2,869 2,136–3,832
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,323–3,637 2,865 2,011–4,195
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,301–3,827 2,958 1,816–4,426
Cost history (352 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,240
Aug 20263,600
Jul 20263,744
Jun 20263,660
May 20263,360
Apr 20263,072
Mar 20262,880
Feb 20262,880
Jan 20262,880
Dec 20252,880
Nov 20252,880
Oct 20253,120
Sept 20253,420
Aug 20253,840
Jul 20253,840
Jun 20253,840
May 20253,960
Apr 20254,080
Mar 20253,996
Feb 20254,080
Jan 20254,008
Dec 20243,600
Nov 20243,780
Oct 20243,900
Sept 20244,320
Aug 20246,180
Jul 20245,904
Jun 20245,184
May 20244,320
Apr 20244,320
Mar 20244,164
Feb 20243,960
Jan 20243,840
Dec 20233,756
Nov 20233,948
Oct 20233,864
Sept 20234,764
Nov 20222,448
Oct 20223,300
Jul 20224,200
Jun 20223,852
May 20224,092
Apr 20224,296
Nov 20212,940
Oct 20212,940
Sept 20213,840
Aug 20213,840
Jul 20213,804
Jun 20213,732
May 20213,672
Apr 20213,840
Dec 20202,388
Nov 20202,940
Oct 20202,916
Sept 20203,540
Aug 20204,215
Jul 20204,008
Jun 20203,276
May 20203,084
Mar 20202,964
Feb 20202,832
Jan 20202,664
Dec 20192,376
Nov 20192,544
Oct 20192,328
Sept 20192,664
Aug 20192,460
Jul 20192,796
Jun 20192,688
Apr 20192,760
Mar 20192,676
Feb 20192,760
Jan 20192,760
Sept 20182,880
Aug 20183,360
Mar 20183,120
Dec 20173,120
Nov 20172,880
Oct 20172,880
Sept 20173,600
Aug 20174,320
Jul 20174,320
Jun 20174,200
May 20173,600
Apr 20173,840
Mar 20173,300
Feb 20173,048
Jan 20172,880
Nov 20162,856
Oct 20162,856
Aug 20163,576
Jul 20163,096
Jun 20162,880
May 20162,880
Apr 20162,616
Mar 20162,736
Feb 20162,496
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,400
Oct 20152,616
Sept 20152,616
Aug 20152,724
Jul 20152,868
Jun 20152,976
Apr 20152,856
Mar 20152,376
Feb 20152,381
Jan 20152,376
Nov 20142,460
Oct 20142,857
Sept 20142,880
Aug 20143,000
Jul 20143,360
Jun 20143,387
May 20143,387
Apr 20143,387
Mar 20143,468
Feb 20143,387
Jan 20143,360
Dec 20133,200
Nov 20133,576
Sept 20133,347
Aug 20133,520
Jul 20133,804
Jun 20133,576
May 20133,336
Apr 20133,576
Mar 20133,324
Feb 20133,324
Jan 20133,120
Dec 20123,012
Nov 20123,333
Oct 20122,937
Sept 20123,644
Aug 20123,985
Jul 20124,054
May 20123,720
Apr 20123,600
Mar 20123,312
Feb 20123,108
Jan 20123,156
Dec 20113,000
Nov 20112,640
Oct 20112,560
Sept 20112,580
Jul 20112,412
Jun 20112,568
May 20112,724
Apr 20112,424
Mar 20112,424
Jan 20112,490
Dec 20102,424
Nov 20102,143
Oct 20102,344
Sept 20102,538
Aug 20102,840
Jul 20102,823
Jun 20102,657
May 20102,657
Apr 20102,903
Mar 20102,904
Feb 20102,880
Jan 20102,676
Dec 20092,736
Nov 20092,988
Oct 20092,736
Aug 20093,277
Jul 20093,000
Jun 20092,903
May 20092,868
Apr 20092,820
Mar 20092,712
Feb 20092,676
Jan 20092,844
Dec 20082,412
Nov 20082,208
Oct 20082,004
Sept 20082,568
Aug 20082,796
Jul 20082,400
Jun 20082,340
May 20082,148
Apr 20082,184
Mar 20082,148
Feb 20082,040
Jan 20082,004
Dec 20071,935
Nov 20071,928
Oct 20072,016
Sept 20072,054
Aug 20072,114
Jul 20072,178
Jun 20072,105
May 20072,049
Apr 20072,028
Mar 20072,051
Feb 20072,143
Jan 20072,056
Dec 20061,920
Nov 20062,039
Oct 20061,967
Sept 20062,186
Aug 20062,418
Jul 20062,543
Jun 20062,247
May 20062,264
Apr 20062,263
Mar 20062,232
Feb 20062,318
Jan 20062,189
Dec 20052,043
Nov 20051,906
Oct 20052,013
Sept 20052,437
Aug 20054,142
Jul 20053,971
Jun 20053,243
May 20052,951
Apr 20052,819
Mar 20052,410
Feb 20052,469
Jan 20052,295
Dec 20041,959
Nov 20042,117
Oct 20042,045
Sept 20041,842
Aug 20042,006
Jul 20042,109
Jun 20041,904
May 20041,994
Apr 20041,889
Mar 20041,721
Feb 20041,750
Jan 20041,620
Dec 20031,521
Nov 20031,524
Oct 20031,524
Sept 20031,620
Aug 20031,739
Jul 20031,929
Jun 20032,206
May 20032,306
Apr 20032,322
Mar 20032,328
Feb 20032,226
Jan 20032,028
Dec 20022,004
Nov 20022,100
Oct 20021,866
Sept 20022,748
Aug 20023,126
Jul 20023,072
Jun 20022,928
May 20022,436
Apr 20022,442
Mar 20022,448
Feb 20022,436
Jan 20022,028
Dec 20011,704
Nov 20011,728
Oct 20011,764
Sept 20012,448
Aug 20012,928
Jul 20012,988
Jun 20013,000
May 20012,604
Apr 20012,832
Mar 20012,536
Feb 20011,959
Jan 20011,728
Dec 20002,004
Nov 20001,776
Oct 20001,776
Sept 20001,728
Aug 20001,716
Jul 20001,716
Jun 20001,764
May 20001,776
Apr 20001,848
Mar 20001,548
Feb 20001,548
Jan 20002,004
Dec 19991,428
Nov 19991,344
Oct 19991,380
Sept 19991,380
Aug 19991,500
Jul 19991,656
Jun 19991,356
May 19991,512
Feb 19991,512
Jan 19991,524
Dec 19981,392
Nov 19981,524
Oct 19981,536
Sept 19982,148
Aug 19983,120
Jul 19982,928
Jun 19982,988
May 19983,000
Apr 19983,012
Mar 19982,604
Feb 19982,496
Jan 19982,340
Dec 19972,016
Nov 19971,980
Oct 19971,992
Sept 19971,884
Aug 19972,508
Jul 19972,496
Jun 19972,244
May 19972,256
Apr 19972,172
Mar 19972,028
Feb 19972,064
Jan 19971,548
Dec 19961,548
Nov 19961,440
Oct 19961,356
Sept 19961,872
Aug 19961,872
Jul 19961,692
Jun 19961,692
May 19961,812
Apr 19961,692
Mar 19961,212
Feb 19961,212
Jan 19961,296
Dec 19951,356
Nov 19951,212
Oct 19951,092
Sept 19951,092
Aug 19951,164
Jul 19951,092
Jun 1995972
May 1995984
Apr 1995972
Mar 1995972
Feb 1995972
Jan 1995744
Dec 1994696
Nov 1994768
Oct 1994780
Sept 1994972
Aug 19941,248
Jul 19941,236
Jun 19941,236
May 1994972
Apr 1994972
Mar 1994984
Feb 1994996
Jan 1994888

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186