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Food basket in Tera

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,927–4,235

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,050–4,584

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,344 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,927 and 4,235 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,050 and 4,584 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tera: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,344 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,927 and 4,235 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,050 and 4,584 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,823–4,574 4,223 3,309–4,673
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,129–4,259 3,557 2,619–4,293
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,927–4,235 3,453 2,699–4,300
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,952–4,390 3,487 2,663–5,428
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,050–4,584 3,624 2,676–5,561
Cost history (173 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20264,344
Jul 20264,332
Jun 20264,284
May 20264,284
Apr 20263,852
Mar 20263,648
Feb 20263,456
Jan 20263,396
Dec 20253,432
Nov 20253,432
Oct 20253,432
Aug 20253,852
Jul 20254,284
Jun 20254,332
May 20254,068
Apr 20254,092
Mar 20254,128
Feb 20253,924
Jan 20253,900
Dec 20244,128
Oct 20244,260
Aug 20245,988
Jul 20245,916
Jun 20245,220
May 20244,968
Apr 20244,368
Mar 20244,176
Feb 20244,152
Jan 20243,936
Dec 20233,432
Nov 20233,432
Aug 20234,260
Jul 20234,284
Jun 20234,248
May 20233,804
Apr 20233,804
Mar 20233,696
Feb 20233,528
Jan 20233,528
Dec 20223,420
Nov 20222,652
Oct 20223,708
Aug 20225,040
Jul 20225,148
Jun 20224,824
May 20224,716
Apr 20224,332
Mar 20224,104
Feb 20223,852
Jan 20224,020
Dec 20214,032
Nov 20213,432
Sept 20213,384
Aug 20213,480
Jul 20213,444
Jun 20213,408
May 20213,300
Apr 20213,048
Mar 20213,000
Feb 20212,976
Jan 20212,772
Dec 20202,256
Nov 20202,652
Sept 20203,528
Aug 20203,504
Jul 20203,228
Jun 20202,928
May 20202,832
Apr 20202,832
Mar 20202,616
Feb 20202,652
Jan 20202,628
Dec 20192,616
Nov 20192,568
Aug 20192,832
Jul 20192,616
Jun 20192,880
May 20192,808
Apr 20192,844
Mar 20192,856
Jan 20192,628
Aug 20183,504
Jun 20183,456
May 20183,456
Apr 20183,336
Mar 20183,084
Feb 20183,084
Jan 20183,084
Dec 20172,568
Nov 20172,568
Oct 20172,520
Sept 20173,888
Jul 20173,540
Jun 20173,552
May 20173,108
Apr 20173,072
Mar 20172,904
Feb 20172,688
Jan 20172,568
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20163,024
Aug 20162,868
Jul 20162,868
Jun 20162,856
May 20162,844
Apr 20162,568
Mar 20162,532
Feb 20162,520
Jan 20162,592
Dec 20152,592
Oct 20152,748
Aug 20152,676
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,652
May 20152,544
Apr 20152,556
Mar 20152,571
Feb 20152,571
Jan 20152,640
Oct 20142,858
Sept 20142,804
Aug 20142,856
Jul 20142,895
Jun 20142,865
May 20142,744
Apr 20142,744
Mar 20143,044
Feb 20143,044
Jan 20142,697
Dec 20132,260
Nov 20132,466
Aug 20132,931
Jul 20132,868
Jun 20132,765
May 20132,952
Apr 20132,532
Mar 20132,466
Jan 20131,979
Dec 20122,070
Aug 20123,817
Jul 20123,985
May 20123,420
Apr 20123,288
Dec 20112,825
Nov 20112,276
Oct 20112,247
Jul 20112,208
Jun 20112,124
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,148
Mar 20112,055
Jan 20112,088
Dec 20101,668
Aug 20102,560
Jul 20102,571
Jun 20102,647
May 20102,727
Apr 20102,574
Mar 20102,514
Feb 20102,544
Jan 20102,416
Dec 20092,125
Nov 20092,148
Oct 20092,338
Sept 20092,934
Aug 20092,979
Jul 20092,947
Jun 20092,534
May 20092,535
Apr 20092,532
Mar 20092,505
Feb 20092,535
Jan 20092,507

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186