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Food basket in Tessaoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,692–2,658

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,681–2,860

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,460 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,692 and 2,658 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,681 and 2,860 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tessaoua: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,460 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,692 and 2,658 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,681 and 2,860 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,042–2,555 2,242 1,747–2,685
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,665–2,538 2,020 1,364–2,691
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,692–2,658 2,092 1,412–3,128
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,668–2,740 2,114 1,316–3,798
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,681–2,860 2,171 1,414–3,458
Cost history (377 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,340
Aug 20262,460
Jul 20262,760
Jun 20262,772
May 20262,424
Apr 20262,424
Mar 20262,424
Feb 20262,388
Jan 20262,172
Dec 20252,052
Nov 20252,088
Oct 20252,136
Sept 20252,580
Aug 20252,880
Jul 20253,516
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,576
Apr 20253,456
Mar 20253,648
Feb 20253,444
Jan 20253,552
Dec 20243,552
Nov 20243,408
Oct 20243,252
Sept 20243,852
Aug 20245,280
Jul 20245,316
Jun 20244,776
May 20244,224
Apr 20243,972
Mar 20243,600
Feb 20243,504
Jan 20243,252
Dec 20233,168
Nov 20233,180
Oct 20233,120
Sept 20233,360
Aug 20233,444
Jul 20233,456
Jun 20233,228
May 20233,108
Apr 20233,000
Mar 20232,892
Feb 20232,772
Jan 20232,664
Dec 20222,616
Nov 20222,328
Oct 20222,484
Sept 20222,976
Aug 20223,060
Jul 20223,648
Jun 20223,528
May 20223,288
Apr 20223,228
Mar 20223,276
Feb 20223,132
Jan 20223,012
Dec 20212,748
Nov 20212,664
Oct 20212,220
Sept 20213,612
Aug 20213,516
Jul 20213,336
Jun 20213,336
May 20213,108
Apr 20213,108
Mar 20213,000
Feb 20212,916
Jan 20212,760
Dec 20202,448
Nov 20202,220
Oct 20202,040
Sept 20203,012
Aug 20203,516
Jul 20203,260
Jun 20202,832
May 20202,664
Mar 20202,472
Feb 20202,328
Jan 20202,304
Dec 20192,052
Nov 20192,064
Oct 20191,800
Sept 20191,812
Aug 20192,028
Jul 20192,004
Jun 20191,860
May 20192,004
Apr 20192,328
Mar 20192,220
Feb 20191,884
Jan 20191,884
Dec 20181,884
Nov 20181,884
Oct 20181,776
Sept 20182,448
Aug 20182,448
Jul 20182,724
May 20182,772
Apr 20182,664
Feb 20182,328
Jan 20182,328
Dec 20172,328
Nov 20172,328
Oct 20171,824
Sept 20171,884
Aug 20173,228
Jul 20173,504
Jun 20173,408
May 20173,108
Apr 20173,108
Mar 20173,000
Jan 20172,220
Nov 20161,824
Oct 20161,824
Sept 20161,824
Aug 20162,520
Jul 20162,004
Jun 20162,004
May 20162,196
Apr 20161,884
Mar 20161,824
Feb 20161,632
Jan 20161,416
Dec 20151,524
Oct 20151,500
Sept 20151,776
Aug 20152,004
Jul 20151,968
Jun 20151,992
May 20151,992
Apr 20151,848
Mar 20151,778
Feb 20151,741
Jan 20151,668
Nov 20141,667
Oct 20141,704
Sept 20142,278
Aug 20142,448
Jul 20142,667
Jun 20142,556
May 20142,444
Apr 20142,618
Mar 20142,588
Feb 20142,509
Jan 20142,400
Dec 20132,514
Nov 20132,508
Oct 20132,436
Sept 20132,618
Aug 20133,164
Jul 20133,055
Jun 20133,273
May 20133,018
Apr 20132,959
Mar 20133,004
Feb 20132,748
Jan 20132,591
Dec 20122,292
Nov 20122,184
Oct 20121,740
Sept 20122,571
Aug 20124,071
Jul 20123,333
May 20122,891
Apr 20122,832
Mar 20122,400
Feb 20122,292
Jan 20122,292
Dec 20112,292
Nov 20112,184
Oct 20111,686
Sept 20111,632
Jul 20111,622
Jun 20112,610
May 20111,860
Apr 20111,854
Feb 20111,630
Jan 20111,556
Dec 20101,596
Nov 20101,460
Oct 20101,393
Sept 20101,651
Aug 20102,544
Jul 20102,618
Jun 20102,509
May 20102,509
Apr 20102,702
Mar 20102,196
Feb 20102,228
Jan 20101,968
Dec 20092,292
Nov 20091,980
Oct 20091,808
Sept 20091,800
Aug 20092,345
Jul 20092,428
Jun 20092,040
May 20091,978
Apr 20091,920
Mar 20091,876
Feb 20091,958
Jan 20091,988
Dec 20081,776
Nov 20081,733
Oct 20081,428
Sept 20081,644
Aug 20082,148
Jul 20082,052
Jun 20081,968
May 20081,728
Apr 20081,692
Mar 20081,836
Feb 20081,656
Jan 20081,428
Dec 20071,222
Nov 20071,295
Oct 20071,187
Sept 20071,188
Aug 20071,375
Jul 20071,514
Jun 20071,477
May 20071,466
Apr 20071,567
Mar 20071,570
Feb 20071,483
Jan 20071,434
Dec 20061,418
Nov 20061,392
Oct 20061,095
Sept 20061,495
Aug 20061,732
Jul 20061,840
Jun 20061,713
May 20061,804
Apr 20061,744
Mar 20061,648
Feb 20061,685
Jan 20061,744
Dec 20051,670
Nov 20051,428
Oct 20051,378
Sept 20051,624
Aug 20053,024
Jul 20053,082
Jun 20052,753
May 20052,435
Apr 20052,152
Mar 20051,845
Feb 20051,829
Jan 20051,723
Dec 20041,409
Nov 20041,388
Oct 20041,337
Sept 20041,352
Aug 20041,636
Jul 20041,581
Jun 20041,313
May 20041,401
Apr 20041,425
Mar 20041,283
Feb 20041,193
Jan 20041,057
Dec 2003864
Nov 2003921
Oct 2003890
Sept 20031,024
Aug 20031,101
Jul 20031,217
Jun 20031,325
May 20031,395
Apr 20031,458
Mar 20031,478
Feb 20031,524
Jan 20031,445
Dec 20021,392
Nov 20021,374
Oct 20021,212
Sept 20021,440
Aug 20022,580
Jul 20022,544
Jun 20022,352
May 20022,028
Apr 20021,956
Mar 20022,100
Feb 20021,776
Jan 20021,436
Dec 20011,194
Nov 20011,146
Oct 20011,188
Sept 20011,254
Jul 20012,202
Jun 20012,166
May 20012,064
Apr 20012,304
Mar 20011,950
Feb 20011,546
Jan 20011,374
Oct 2000972
Sept 20001,164
Aug 20001,284
Jul 20001,176
Jun 20001,236
May 20001,296
Apr 20001,332
Mar 20001,140
Feb 20001,068
Jan 2000984
Dec 1999984
Nov 1999984
Oct 1999816
Sept 1999792
Aug 1999888
Jul 1999972
Mar 1999840
Feb 1999816
Jan 1999780
Dec 1998804
Nov 1998876
Oct 1998948
Sept 19981,116
Aug 19981,980
Jul 19982,220
Jun 19982,124
May 19982,256
Apr 19982,160
Mar 19981,728
Feb 19981,632
Jan 19981,596
Dec 19971,380
Nov 19971,500
Oct 19971,284
Sept 19971,248
Aug 19971,704
Jul 19971,824
Jun 19971,608
May 19971,464
Apr 19971,524
Mar 19971,332
Feb 19971,056
Jan 19971,032
Dec 19961,008
Nov 19961,008
Oct 1996792
Sept 1996804
Aug 19961,164
Jul 19961,284
Jun 1996960
May 1996984
Apr 19961,008
Mar 1996780
Feb 1996792
Jan 1996744
Dec 1995660
Nov 1995672
Oct 1995576
Sept 1995552
Aug 1995624
Jul 1995660
Jun 1995600
May 1995588
Apr 1995564
Mar 1995540
Feb 1995552
Jan 1995492
Dec 1994456
Nov 1994468
Oct 1994504
Sept 1994468
Aug 1994624
Jul 1994720
Jun 1994804
May 1994720
Apr 1994612
Mar 1994600
Feb 1994600
Jan 1994480

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186