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Food basket in Tounfafi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,680–2,696

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,704–2,892

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,460 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,680 and 2,696 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,704 and 2,892 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tounfafi: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,460 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,680 and 2,696 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,704 and 2,892 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,904–2,615 2,172 1,666–2,738
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,620–2,552 1,977 1,485–2,685
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,680–2,696 2,052 1,540–2,755
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,676–2,769 2,084 1,495–3,302
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,704–2,892 2,159 1,534–3,266
Cost history (376 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,172
Aug 20262,460
Jul 20262,904
Jun 20262,976
May 20262,808
Apr 20262,412
Mar 20262,376
Feb 20262,292
Jan 20262,304
Dec 20252,304
Nov 20252,304
Oct 20252,220
Sept 20252,256
Aug 20252,856
Jul 20253,384
Jun 20253,252
May 20253,300
Apr 20253,612
Mar 20253,612
Feb 20253,600
Jan 20253,672
Dec 20243,360
Nov 20243,180
Oct 20242,832
Sept 20243,168
Aug 20245,436
Jul 20245,616
Jun 20244,920
May 20244,476
Apr 20244,236
Mar 20243,864
Feb 20243,708
Jan 20243,384
Dec 20233,132
Nov 20233,132
Oct 20232,868
Sept 20233,564
Aug 20233,972
Jul 20234,032
Jun 20233,516
May 20233,396
Apr 20233,396
Mar 20233,168
Feb 20233,168
Jan 20232,940
Dec 20222,712
Nov 20223,576
Oct 20222,712
Sept 20223,192
Aug 20223,768
Jul 20223,768
Jun 20223,648
May 20223,648
Apr 20223,696
Mar 20223,660
Feb 20223,660
Jan 20223,372
Dec 20213,048
Nov 20212,964
Oct 20212,916
Sept 20213,216
Aug 20213,660
Jul 20213,768
Jun 20213,612
May 20213,444
Apr 20213,300
Mar 20213,192
Feb 20213,132
Jan 20213,000
Dec 20202,784
Nov 20202,352
Oct 20202,292
Sept 20202,976
Aug 20203,690
Jul 20203,633
Jun 20203,204
May 20202,988
Mar 20202,604
Feb 20202,520
Jan 20202,484
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,280
Oct 20192,508
Sept 20192,268
Aug 20192,316
Jul 20192,856
Jun 20192,316
May 20192,376
Apr 20192,556
Mar 20192,436
Feb 20192,280
Jan 20192,232
Dec 20182,064
Nov 20182,052
Oct 20181,944
Aug 20182,928
Jul 20183,204
Jun 20182,868
May 20183,192
Feb 20182,736
Jan 20182,736
Dec 20172,748
Nov 20172,568
Oct 20172,280
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20173,924
Jul 20173,720
May 20173,456
Apr 20173,480
Mar 20173,180
Feb 20172,724
Jan 20172,844
Nov 20162,064
Oct 20161,728
Sept 20161,884
Aug 20163,240
Jul 20162,784
Jun 20162,436
May 20162,436
Mar 20162,148
Feb 20162,088
Jan 20162,088
Dec 20151,512
Oct 20151,620
Sept 20151,860
Aug 20152,100
Jul 20152,316
Jun 20152,316
May 20152,316
Apr 20152,184
Mar 20151,853
Feb 20151,846
Jan 20151,962
Nov 20141,758
Oct 20141,868
Sept 20142,130
Aug 20142,442
Jun 20142,784
May 20142,744
Apr 20142,820
Feb 20142,668
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,603
Nov 20132,628
Oct 20132,518
Sept 20132,759
Aug 20133,900
Jul 20134,054
Jun 20133,492
May 20133,417
Apr 20133,372
Mar 20133,178
Feb 20133,144
Jan 20133,123
Dec 20122,820
Nov 20122,717
Oct 20122,189
Sept 20123,401
Aug 20123,801
Jul 20123,660
May 20123,206
Apr 20122,976
Mar 20122,759
Feb 20122,760
Jan 20122,814
Dec 20112,856
Nov 20112,340
Oct 20112,124
Sept 20111,824
Jul 20112,112
Jun 20112,244
May 20112,404
Apr 20112,211
Mar 20112,052
Feb 20112,077
Jan 20112,064
Dec 20101,734
Nov 20101,587
Oct 20101,511
Sept 20101,818
Aug 20102,868
Jul 20102,759
Jun 20102,748
May 20102,738
Apr 20102,058
Mar 20102,352
Feb 20102,368
Jan 20102,340
Dec 20092,292
Nov 20091,944
Oct 20092,054
Sept 20092,220
Aug 20092,743
Jul 20092,697
Jun 20092,400
May 20092,281
Apr 20092,118
Mar 20092,229
Jan 20092,152
Dec 20081,386
Nov 20081,782
Oct 20081,584
Sept 20082,280
Aug 20082,340
Jul 20082,436
May 20081,944
Apr 20081,968
Feb 20081,716
Jan 20081,512
Dec 20071,362
Nov 20071,470
Oct 20071,384
Sept 20071,287
Aug 20071,530
Jul 20071,585
May 20071,619
Apr 20071,603
Mar 20071,647
Feb 20071,634
Jan 20071,609
Dec 20061,379
Nov 20061,427
Oct 20061,297
Sept 20061,716
Aug 20061,900
Jul 20062,053
Jun 20061,921
May 20062,016
Apr 20062,016
Mar 20061,956
Feb 20062,069
Jan 20061,906
Dec 20051,751
Nov 20051,742
Oct 20051,803
Sept 20052,066
Aug 20053,267
Jul 20053,282
Jun 20052,873
May 20052,442
Apr 20052,508
Mar 20052,070
Feb 20051,932
Jan 20051,838
Dec 20041,564
Nov 20041,390
Oct 20041,336
Sept 20041,247
Aug 20041,632
Jul 20041,659
Jun 20041,492
May 20041,615
Apr 20041,682
Mar 20041,482
Feb 20041,385
Jan 20041,240
Dec 20031,158
Nov 20031,053
Oct 2003997
Sept 20031,029
Aug 20031,206
Jul 20031,465
Jun 20031,512
May 20031,404
Apr 20031,464
Mar 20031,598
Feb 20031,530
Jan 20031,522
Dec 20021,416
Nov 20021,572
Oct 20021,350
Sept 20021,302
Aug 20022,224
Jul 20022,430
Jun 20022,280
May 20022,172
Apr 20022,172
Mar 20022,076
Feb 20021,860
Jan 20021,732
Dec 20011,440
Nov 20011,230
Oct 20011,206
Sept 20011,230
Aug 20012,208
Jul 20012,592
Jun 20012,238
May 20012,124
Apr 20012,244
Mar 20012,047
Feb 20011,647
Jan 20011,545
Dec 20001,620
Nov 20001,284
Oct 20001,140
Sept 20001,224
Aug 20001,380
Jul 20001,464
Jun 20001,716
May 20001,476
Apr 20001,428
Mar 20001,320
Feb 20001,308
Jan 20001,092
Dec 1999996
Nov 1999972
Oct 1999936
Sept 19991,140
Aug 19991,140
Jul 19991,308
Jun 19991,224
May 19991,296
Apr 19991,224
Mar 19991,116
Feb 19991,092
Jan 19991,092
Dec 19981,104
Nov 19981,164
Oct 19981,224
Sept 19982,880
Aug 19982,880
Jul 19982,928
Jun 19982,616
May 19982,616
Apr 19982,568
Mar 19982,220
Feb 19981,896
Jan 19981,824
Dec 19971,812
Nov 19971,620
Oct 19971,548
Sept 19971,848
Aug 19971,848
Jul 19972,040
Jun 19971,752
May 19971,752
Apr 19971,644
Mar 19971,320
Feb 19971,092
Jan 19971,152
Dec 1996972
Nov 1996996
Oct 1996900
Sept 19961,272
Aug 19961,272
Jul 19961,536
Jun 19961,224
May 19961,224
Apr 19961,272
Mar 19961,044
Feb 1996900
Jan 1996804
Dec 1995732
Nov 1995708
Oct 1995672
Sept 1995792
Aug 1995792
Jul 1995936
Jun 1995696
May 1995696
Apr 1995696
Mar 1995660
Feb 1995660
Jan 1995588
Dec 1994576
Nov 1994588
Oct 1994516
Sept 1994912
Aug 1994912
Jul 19941,020
Jun 1994888
May 1994888
Apr 1994828
Mar 1994792
Feb 1994756
Jan 1994624

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186