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Food basket in Wadata

Niamey, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,436–3,500

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,421–3,603

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,396 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,436 and 3,500 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,421 and 3,603 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Wadata: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,396 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,436 and 3,500 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,421 and 3,603 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,940–3,564 3,243 2,868–3,622
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,621–3,461 2,916 2,343–3,579
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,436–3,500 2,824 2,215–3,570
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,489–3,551 2,885 2,289–3,688
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,421–3,603 2,879 2,157–3,782
Cost history (204 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,336
Aug 20263,396
Jul 20263,504
Jun 20263,312
May 20263,060
Apr 20262,880
Mar 20262,844
Feb 20262,796
Jan 20262,796
Dec 20252,796
Nov 20252,820
Oct 20252,952
Sept 20253,360
Aug 20253,432
Jul 20253,732
Jun 20253,768
May 20253,744
Apr 20253,888
Mar 20253,996
Feb 20253,816
Jan 20253,768
Dec 20243,960
Nov 20243,900
Oct 20243,984
Sept 20244,680
Aug 20245,760
Jul 20245,640
Jun 20245,088
May 20244,572
Apr 20244,164
Mar 20243,948
Feb 20243,612
Jan 20243,576
Dec 20233,492
Nov 20233,576
Oct 20233,780
Sept 20234,584
Aug 20234,212
Jul 20234,044
Jun 20233,576
May 20233,528
Apr 20233,516
Mar 20233,504
Feb 20233,372
Jan 20233,276
Dec 20223,552
Nov 20223,552
Oct 20223,708
Sept 20224,128
Aug 20224,404
Jul 20224,116
Jun 20224,032
May 20223,792
Apr 20223,792
Mar 20223,792
Feb 20223,816
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,828
Nov 20212,784
Oct 20213,384
Sept 20213,576
Aug 20213,780
Jul 20213,552
Jun 20213,552
May 20213,552
Apr 20213,312
Mar 20213,204
Feb 20213,036
Jan 20212,976
Dec 20202,748
Nov 20202,784
Oct 20203,084
Sept 20203,612
Aug 20203,732
Jul 20203,303
Jun 20203,000
May 20202,976
Apr 20202,967
Mar 20202,796
Feb 20202,820
Jan 20202,640
Dec 20192,808
Nov 20192,796
Oct 20192,820
Sept 20192,820
Aug 20192,808
Jul 20192,796
Jun 20192,784
May 20192,976
Apr 20192,796
Mar 20192,808
Feb 20192,820
Jan 20192,808
Dec 20182,808
Nov 20182,772
Oct 20182,772
Sept 20183,360
Aug 20183,360
Jul 20183,600
Jun 20183,504
May 20183,264
Apr 20183,264
Mar 20183,060
Feb 20183,036
Jan 20183,036
Dec 20173,024
Nov 20173,072
Oct 20173,060
Sept 20173,528
Aug 20173,504
Jul 20173,456
Jun 20173,456
May 20173,576
Apr 20173,288
Mar 20172,796
Feb 20172,844
Jan 20172,832
Nov 20162,616
Oct 20162,616
Sept 20163,084
Aug 20163,096
Jul 20162,880
Jun 20162,892
May 20162,784
Apr 20162,676
Mar 20162,820
Feb 20162,616
Jan 20162,604
Dec 20152,604
Oct 20152,616
Sept 20152,604
Aug 20152,784
Jul 20152,820
Jun 20152,856
May 20152,844
Apr 20152,700
Mar 20152,619
Feb 20152,613
Jan 20152,592
Nov 20142,857
Oct 20142,876
Sept 20142,903
Aug 20143,133
Jul 20143,120
Jun 20143,120
May 20143,133
Apr 20143,145
Mar 20143,145
Feb 20143,139
Jan 20143,120
Dec 20133,108
Nov 20133,120
Oct 20133,113
Sept 20133,221
Aug 20133,325
Jul 20133,340
Jun 20133,391
May 20133,360
Apr 20133,227
Mar 20133,148
Jan 20132,893
Dec 20122,854
Nov 20122,880
Oct 20122,928
Sept 20123,660
Aug 20124,007
Jul 20123,810
May 20123,477
Apr 20123,282
Dec 20112,616
Nov 20112,616
Oct 20112,364
Sept 20112,388
Jul 20112,376
Jun 20112,376
May 20112,376
Apr 20112,388
Mar 20112,400
Feb 20112,381
Jan 20111,833
Dec 20102,136
Nov 20102,160
Oct 20102,449
Sept 20102,880
Aug 20102,856
Jul 20102,857
Jun 20102,817
May 20102,903
Apr 20102,619
Mar 20102,610
Feb 20102,616
Jan 20102,556
Dec 20092,376
Nov 20092,376
Oct 20092,358
Sept 20092,856
Aug 20092,902
Jul 20092,556
Jun 20092,588
May 20092,568
Apr 20092,544
Mar 20092,544
Feb 20092,538
Jan 20092,674

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186