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Food basket in Balayara

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,430–3,569

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,323–3,751

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,384 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,430 and 3,569 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,323 and 3,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Balayara: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,384 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,430 and 3,569 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,323 and 3,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,828–3,535 3,171 2,648–3,589
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,511–3,482 2,947 2,213–3,568
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,430–3,569 2,917 2,129–3,627
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,283–3,661 2,917 1,792–4,164
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,323–3,751 3,012 1,972–3,759
Cost history (334 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,396
Aug 20263,384
Jul 20263,456
Jun 20263,864
May 20263,516
Apr 20263,120
Mar 20263,132
Dec 20253,192
Nov 20253,120
Oct 20253,072
Sept 20253,060
Aug 20253,648
Jul 20253,888
Jun 20253,840
May 20253,744
Apr 20253,888
Mar 20253,984
Jan 20254,056
Dec 20243,660
Nov 20243,852
Oct 20243,528
Sept 20244,524
Aug 20245,880
Jul 20245,640
Jun 20245,280
May 20244,596
Apr 20244,500
Mar 20243,948
Feb 20243,624
Jan 20243,492
Dec 20233,276
Nov 20233,396
Oct 20233,516
Sept 20234,488
Aug 20234,092
Jul 20233,900
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,600
Apr 20233,600
Feb 20233,600
Jan 20233,624
Nov 20223,984
Oct 20223,444
Aug 20224,104
Jul 20224,632
Jun 20223,312
May 20223,984
Apr 20223,948
Dec 20213,360
Nov 20213,240
Oct 20213,264
Sept 20213,480
Aug 20213,600
Jun 20213,360
May 20213,480
Apr 20213,360
Mar 20213,180
Feb 20213,360
Jan 20213,264
Dec 20202,712
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,964
Sept 20203,360
Aug 20203,600
Jul 20203,360
Jun 20202,880
May 20203,000
Apr 20202,880
Mar 20202,664
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,736
Nov 20192,280
Oct 20192,532
Sept 20192,436
Aug 20192,676
Jul 20192,496
Jun 20192,964
May 20192,976
Nov 20182,976
Oct 20182,988
Aug 20183,468
May 20183,468
Mar 20182,964
Jan 20182,988
Nov 20173,024
Oct 20173,024
Sept 20173,276
Jun 20173,780
May 20173,780
Apr 20173,600
Mar 20173,012
Nov 20162,748
Aug 20162,964
Jul 20162,964
Jun 20162,940
May 20162,724
Apr 20162,724
Mar 20162,448
Feb 20162,448
Dec 20152,484
Oct 20152,472
Sept 20152,592
Aug 20152,784
Jul 20152,772
Jun 20152,784
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,580
Mar 20152,419
Nov 20142,615
Oct 20142,652
Sept 20142,988
Aug 20142,975
Jul 20143,276
Jun 20143,276
May 20143,226
Apr 20143,210
Mar 20143,223
Feb 20143,237
Jan 20143,274
Dec 20133,237
Nov 20133,250
Oct 20132,910
Sept 20132,976
Aug 20133,740
Jul 20133,611
Jun 20133,471
May 20133,471
Apr 20133,515
Mar 20133,507
Feb 20133,285
Jan 20132,988
Dec 20123,252
Nov 20123,013
Oct 20122,882
Sept 20123,782
Aug 20123,619
Jul 20123,736
May 20123,339
Apr 20123,008
Jan 20122,784
Dec 20112,862
Nov 20112,724
Oct 20112,520
Sept 20112,478
Jul 20112,667
Jun 20112,742
May 20112,712
Apr 20112,744
Feb 20112,500
Dec 20102,427
Nov 20102,056
Oct 20101,951
Sept 20102,512
Aug 20102,988
Jul 20103,050
Jun 20102,963
May 20102,988
Apr 20102,739
Jan 20102,712
Dec 20092,466
Nov 20092,436
Oct 20092,412
Sept 20092,576
Aug 20093,250
Jul 20093,084
Jun 20092,724
May 20092,742
Apr 20092,724
Mar 20092,736
Dec 20082,480
Nov 20082,048
Oct 20082,496
Sept 20082,604
Aug 20082,820
Jul 20082,724
Jun 20082,532
May 20082,280
Apr 20082,220
Mar 20082,208
Jan 20081,920
Dec 20071,797
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,508
Sept 20071,685
Aug 20071,722
Jul 20071,688
Jun 20071,767
May 20071,855
Apr 20071,872
Mar 20071,839
Feb 20071,872
Dec 20061,757
Nov 20061,716
Oct 20061,598
Sept 20061,861
Aug 20062,194
Jul 20062,213
Jun 20062,256
May 20062,184
Apr 20062,190
Feb 20062,154
Jan 20062,201
Dec 20052,092
Nov 20051,923
Oct 20052,089
Sept 20052,500
Aug 20053,312
Jul 20053,230
Jun 20053,134
May 20052,782
Apr 20052,557
Mar 20052,544
Feb 20052,222
Dec 20041,750
Nov 20041,680
Oct 20041,614
Sept 20041,581
Aug 20041,737
Jul 20041,707
Jun 20041,611
May 20041,615
Apr 20041,615
Dec 20031,502
Nov 20031,366
Oct 20031,369
Sept 20031,539
Aug 20031,701
Jul 20031,840
Jun 20031,964
May 20031,937
Apr 20031,972
Mar 20031,969
Feb 20031,960
Jan 20031,986
Dec 20021,980
Nov 20021,788
Oct 20021,872
Sept 20022,256
Aug 20022,892
Jul 20022,844
Jun 20022,502
May 20022,520
Apr 20022,328
Feb 20022,268
Jan 20021,892
Dec 20011,632
Nov 20011,554
Oct 20011,504
Sept 20011,989
Aug 20012,558
Jul 20012,589
Jun 20012,448
May 20012,475
Apr 20012,585
Feb 20011,789
Jan 20011,757
Dec 20001,752
Nov 20001,500
Oct 20001,452
Sept 20001,536
Aug 20001,572
Jul 20001,536
Jun 20001,524
May 20001,524
Apr 20001,632
Mar 20001,560
Feb 20001,512
Jan 20001,284
Dec 19991,272
Nov 19991,272
Oct 19991,272
Sept 19991,248
Aug 19991,512
Jul 19991,488
Jun 19991,464
May 19991,488
Apr 19991,488
Jan 19991,500
Dec 19981,260
Nov 19981,272
Oct 19981,272
Sept 19981,248
Aug 19981,512
Jul 19981,488
Jun 19981,464
May 19981,488
Apr 19981,488
Feb 19981,560
Jan 19981,500
Dec 19971,488
Nov 19971,488
Oct 19971,524
Sept 19972,028
Aug 19972,724
Jul 19972,700
Jun 19972,760
May 19972,748
Apr 19972,520
Feb 19972,256
Jan 19972,256
Dec 19962,232
Nov 19961,992
Oct 19961,968
Sept 19961,752
Aug 19962,436
Jul 19962,280
Jun 19961,968
May 19961,956
Apr 19961,860
Mar 19961,788
Jan 19961,476
Dec 19951,500
Nov 19951,260
Oct 19951,164
Sept 19951,476
Aug 19951,764
Jul 19951,632
Jun 19951,632
May 19951,620
Apr 19951,476
Mar 19951,272
Jan 19951,248
Dec 19941,152
Nov 19941,056
Oct 1994996
Sept 1994816
Aug 19941,116
Jul 19941,056
Jun 1994984
May 1994996
Apr 1994996
Mar 1994996
Jan 1994876

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186