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Food basket in Dakoro

Maradi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,728–2,911

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,774–3,076

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,772 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,728 and 2,911 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,774 and 3,076 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Dakoro: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,772 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,728 and 2,911 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,774 and 3,076 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,170–2,908 2,508 1,973–3,080
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,792–2,783 2,212 1,510–2,972
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,728–2,911 2,233 1,390–2,975
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,807–2,969 2,290 1,592–3,300
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,774–3,076 2,360 1,500–3,369
Cost history (182 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,604
Aug 20262,772
Jul 20263,120
Jun 20262,940
May 20262,772
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,316
Jan 20262,040
Dec 20252,004
Nov 20252,124
Oct 20252,064
Sept 20252,496
Aug 20253,108
Jul 20253,396
Jun 20253,444
May 20253,360
Apr 20253,108
Feb 20253,204
Jan 20253,240
Dec 20242,856
Nov 20242,856
Oct 20242,868
Sept 20243,276
Aug 20244,860
Jul 20244,800
Jun 20244,092
May 20243,804
Apr 20243,408
Feb 20243,288
Jan 20242,796
Dec 20232,880
Nov 20233,444
Oct 20232,820
Sept 20233,240
Aug 20233,456
Jul 20233,312
Jun 20233,120
May 20232,916
Apr 20233,000
Feb 20232,652
Jan 20232,676
Dec 20222,676
Nov 20222,400
Oct 20222,544
Sept 20223,024
Aug 20223,180
Jul 20223,624
Jun 20223,624
May 20223,156
Apr 20223,204
Mar 20223,012
Feb 20223,012
Jan 20222,880
Dec 20212,532
Nov 20212,556
Oct 20212,172
Sept 20213,060
Aug 20213,216
Jul 20212,988
Jun 20213,072
May 20212,820
Apr 20212,760
Mar 20212,736
Feb 20212,772
Jan 20212,448
Dec 20202,784
Nov 20201,968
Oct 20201,944
Sept 20202,904
Aug 20203,386
Jul 20203,342
Jun 20202,640
May 20202,472
Mar 20202,280
Feb 20202,112
Jan 20201,992
Dec 20191,752
Nov 20191,668
Oct 20191,596
Sept 20191,560
Aug 20191,692
Jul 20191,848
Jun 20191,716
May 20191,896
Feb 20191,968
Jan 20191,860
Dec 20181,764
Nov 20181,716
Oct 20181,776
Sept 20182,604
Aug 20182,688
Jul 20182,796
May 20182,604
Mar 20182,304
Feb 20182,448
Jan 20182,232
Dec 20172,232
Nov 20172,172
Oct 20172,136
Sept 20172,784
Aug 20173,468
Jul 20173,396
Jun 20173,264
May 20173,156
Feb 20172,568
Jan 20172,532
Nov 20161,788
Oct 20162,004
Sept 20161,932
Aug 20162,736
Jul 20162,796
Jun 20162,256
May 20162,568
Apr 20161,800
Feb 20161,968
Jan 20161,632
Dec 20151,668
Oct 20151,692
Sept 20151,572
Aug 20151,716
Jul 20151,740
Jun 20151,740
May 20151,740
Apr 20151,656
Feb 20151,508
Jan 20151,488
Nov 20141,771
Sept 20141,837
Aug 20142,357
Jul 20142,456
Jun 20142,349
May 20142,349
Apr 20142,343
Feb 20142,509
Jan 20142,633
Dec 20132,583
Nov 20132,736
Oct 20132,877
Sept 20133,110
Aug 20134,164
Jul 20134,050
Jun 20133,449
May 20133,286
Apr 20133,286
Jan 20132,808
Dec 20122,832
Nov 20122,690
Oct 20122,496
Sept 20122,889
Aug 20123,663
Jul 20123,624
May 20123,512
Dec 20112,667
Nov 20112,172
Oct 20112,288
Sept 20111,800
Jul 20111,746
Jun 20111,968
May 20112,220
Feb 20111,869
Jan 20111,753
Dec 20102,352
Nov 20101,484
Oct 20101,539
Sept 20101,841
Aug 20103,088
Jul 20103,088
Jun 20102,840
May 20102,647
Apr 20102,281
Feb 20102,448
Jan 20102,352
Dec 20091,945
Nov 20091,824
Oct 20091,950
Sept 20091,978
Aug 20092,667
Jul 20092,445
Jun 20091,884
May 20091,944
Feb 20092,000
Jan 20092,040

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186