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Sorghum (white) in Banfora

CASCADES, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

166–251

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

150–258

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 166 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 258 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Banfora: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 166 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 258 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 190–233 212 177–250 324 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 176–246 210 161–270 343 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 166–251 209 128–291 330 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 156–253 209 118–306 315 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 150–258 210 93.1–319 299 –
Price history (283 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026227
Aug 2026214
Jul 2026212
Jun 2026212
May 2026228
Apr 2026229
Mar 2026211
Feb 2026215
Jan 2026221
Dec 2025213
Nov 2025232
Oct 2025309
Sept 2025294
Aug 2025296
Jul 2025347
Jun 2025341
May 2025357
Apr 2025328
Mar 2025322
Feb 2025323
Jan 2025272
Dec 2024319
Nov 2024352
Oct 2024347
Sept 2024345
Aug 2024345
Jul 2024319
Jun 2024292
May 2024292
Apr 2024272
Mar 2024266
Feb 2024256
Jan 2024228
Dec 2023266
Nov 2023291
Oct 2023299
Sept 2023292
Aug 2023318
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023363
May 2023350
Apr 2023347
Mar 2023327
Feb 2023327
Jan 2023311
Dec 2022327
Nov 2022339
Oct 2022321
Sept 2022276
Aug 2022322
Jul 2022321
Jun 2022352
May 2022336
Apr 2022316
Mar 2022303
Feb 2022263
Jan 2022237
Dec 2021230
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021210
Sept 2021197
Aug 2021189
Jul 2021210
Jun 2021191
May 2021187
Apr 2021197
Mar 2021180
Feb 2021167
Jan 2021154
Dec 2020165
Nov 2020180
Oct 2020179
Sept 2020147
Aug 2020153
Jul 2020128
Jun 2020124
May 2020157
Apr 2020157
Mar 2020157
Feb 2020131
Jan 2020108
Dec 2019131
Nov 2019122
Oct 2019140
Sept 2019146
Aug 2019130
Jul 2019131
Jun 2019132
May 2019158
Apr 2019158
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019138
Jan 2019197
Dec 2018197
Nov 2018171
Oct 2018212
Sept 2018223
Aug 2018227
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018213
May 2018213
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018181
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017208
Sept 2017195
Aug 2017182
Jul 2017182
Jun 2017173
May 2017172
Apr 2017179
Mar 2017163
Feb 2017143
Jan 2017156
Dec 2016153
Nov 2016170
Oct 2016154
Sept 2016138
Aug 2016148
Jul 2016153
Jun 2016174
May 2016176
Apr 2016174
Mar 2016160
Feb 2016155
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015180
Nov 2015170
Oct 2015190
Sept 2015187
Aug 2015184
Jul 2015184
Jun 2015193
May 2015186
Apr 2015182
Mar 2015167
Feb 2015160
Jan 2015151
Dec 2014178
Nov 2014174
Oct 2014180
Sept 2014179
Jul 2014163
Jun 2014165
May 2014158
Apr 2014189
Mar 2014152
Feb 2014155
Dec 2013144
Nov 2013155
Oct 2013161
Sept 2013181
Aug 2013174
Jul 2013181
Jun 2013177
May 2013174
Apr 2013189
Mar 2013188
Feb 2013163
Jan 2013171
Dec 2012192
Nov 2012217
Oct 2012215
Sept 2012220
Aug 2012211
Jul 2012214
Jun 2012212
May 2012212
Apr 2012211
Mar 2012190
Feb 2012172
Jan 2012161
Dec 2011165
Nov 2011176
Oct 2011165
Sept 2011167
Aug 2011152
Jul 2011145
Jun 2011140
May 2011133
Apr 2011129
Mar 2011130
Feb 2011121
Jan 2011120
Dec 2010127
Nov 2010119
Oct 2010129
Sept 2010130
Aug 2010129
Jul 2010131
Jun 2010128
May 2010133
Apr 2010135
Mar 2010132
Feb 2010132
Jan 2010132
Dec 2009134
Nov 2009172
Oct 2009181
Sept 2009185
Aug 2009178
Jul 2009154
Jun 2009146
May 2009137
Apr 2009131
Mar 2009133
Feb 2009136
Jan 2009116
Dec 2008102
Nov 2008114
Oct 2008131
Sept 2008160
Aug 2008149
Jul 2008140
Jun 2008139
May 2008128
Apr 2008105
Mar 200897.8
Feb 200893.2
Jan 200887.2
Dec 200791.1
Nov 2007104
Oct 200798
Sept 2007101
Aug 2007102
Jul 200795.7
Jun 200785.4
May 200789.6
Apr 200794.4
Mar 200787.8
Feb 200776.7
Jan 200778
Dec 200684.9
Nov 200690.8
Oct 200696.7
Sept 2006114
Aug 2006102
Jul 200691.8
Jun 2006111
May 2006138
Apr 2006145
Mar 2006133
Feb 2006112
Jan 200698.8
Dec 2005111
Nov 2005180
Oct 2005198
Sept 2005261
Aug 2005222
Jul 2005203
Jun 2005196
May 2005155
Apr 2005147
Mar 2005133
Feb 2005110
Jan 200593
Dec 200495.4
Nov 2004126
Oct 200492.2
Sept 200486.2
Aug 200491.2
Jul 200471.5
Jun 200464.5
May 200473
Apr 200468.2
Mar 200454.5
Feb 200459.1
Jan 200469.5
Dec 200373.6
Nov 200383.6
Oct 200387.2
Sept 200391.8
Aug 200398.9
Jul 200396.1
Jun 2003115
May 2003109
Apr 2003111
Mar 2003112
Feb 2003128
Jan 2003113

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-129-135-retail-kg.