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Sorghum (white) in Diebougou

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

185–270

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

173–277

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 185 and 270 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 173 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Diebougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 185 and 270 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 173 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 202–255 227 195–265 343 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 191–266 226 174–269 346 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 185–270 224 169–292 334 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 165–268 221 118–297 298 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 173–277 225 138–292 320 –
Price history (282 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026261
Aug 2026230
Jul 2026243
Jun 2026250
May 2026259
Apr 2026267
Mar 2026236
Feb 2026234
Jan 2026227
Dec 2025271
Nov 2025259
Oct 2025237
Sept 2025267
Aug 2025294
Jul 2025323
Jun 2025285
May 2025300
Apr 2025307
Mar 2025330
Feb 2025307
Jan 2025307
Dec 2024220
Nov 2024370
Oct 2024377
Sept 2024382
Aug 2024353
Jul 2024344
Jun 2024287
May 2024315
Apr 2024308
Mar 2024287
Feb 2024287
Jan 2024308
Dec 2023258
Nov 2023287
Oct 2023287
Sept 2023287
Aug 2023287
Jul 2023281
Jun 2023301
May 2023326
Apr 2023344
Mar 2023344
Feb 2023342
Jan 2023323
Dec 2022337
Nov 2022372
Oct 2022407
Sept 2022399
Aug 2022349
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022336
May 2022349
Apr 2022329
Mar 2022246
Feb 2022225
Jan 2022259
Dec 2021206
Nov 2021219
Oct 2021206
Sept 2021232
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021193
Jun 2021203
May 2021211
Apr 2021194
Mar 2021193
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021184
Dec 2020174
Nov 2020188
Oct 2020207
Sept 2020193
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020162
Jun 2020166
May 2020158
Apr 2020158
Mar 2020158
Feb 2020156
Jan 2020140
Dec 2019133
Nov 2019132
Oct 2019132
Sept 2019132
Aug 2019134
Jul 2019138
Jun 2019169
May 2019168
Apr 2019168
Mar 2019179
Feb 2019182
Jan 2019176
Dec 2018176
Nov 2018218
Oct 2018234
Sept 2018219
Aug 2018218
Jul 2018222
Jun 2018215
May 2018209
Apr 2018214
Mar 2018207
Feb 2018206
Jan 2018207
Dec 2017189
Nov 2017209
Oct 2017231
Sept 2017213
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017191
Jun 2017190
May 2017186
Apr 2017179
Mar 2017170
Feb 2017167
Jan 2017165
Dec 2016163
Nov 2016167
Oct 2016191
Sept 2016171
Aug 2016168
Jul 2016173
Jun 2016181
May 2016187
Apr 2016172
Mar 2016167
Feb 2016161
Jan 2016159
Dec 2015159
Nov 2015165
Oct 2015177
Sept 2015180
Aug 2015188
Jul 2015190
Jun 2015189
May 2015178
Apr 2015173
Mar 2015164
Feb 2015162
Jan 2015158
Dec 2014162
Nov 2014164
Oct 2014170
Sept 2014174
Jul 2014162
Jun 2014165
May 2014159
Apr 2014197
Mar 2014149
Feb 2014155
Dec 2013149
Nov 2013166
Oct 2013171
Sept 2013174
Aug 2013176
Jul 2013185
Jun 2013191
May 2013188
Apr 2013197
Mar 2013197
Feb 2013189
Jan 2013192
Dec 2012192
Nov 2012214
Oct 2012220
Sept 2012228
Aug 2012230
Jul 2012222
Jun 2012208
Apr 2012212
Mar 2012204
Feb 2012177
Jan 2012183
Dec 2011166
Nov 2011182
Oct 2011174
Sept 2011168
Aug 2011163
Jul 2011160
Jun 2011147
May 2011144
Apr 2011145
Mar 2011142
Feb 2011133
Jan 2011128
Dec 2010132
Nov 2010132
Oct 2010128
Sept 2010145
Aug 2010143
Jul 2010132
Jun 2010131
May 2010131
Apr 2010127
Mar 2010127
Feb 2010137
Jan 2010140
Dec 2009136
Nov 2009149
Oct 2009151
Sept 2009153
Aug 2009176
Jul 2009175
Jun 2009151
May 2009143
Apr 2009141
Mar 2009145
Feb 2009132
Jan 2009135
Dec 2008113
Nov 2008132
Oct 2008142
Sept 2008167
Aug 2008166
Jul 2008144
Jun 2008156
May 2008145
Apr 2008117
Mar 2008117
Feb 2008108
Jan 200876.5
Dec 2007106
Nov 2007133
Oct 2007125
Sept 2007114
Aug 2007108
Jul 2007110
Jun 2007103
May 2007108
Apr 2007108
Mar 2007104
Feb 200787.5
Jan 200788
Dec 200690.8
Nov 2006110
Oct 2006108
Sept 2006125
Aug 2006145
Jul 2006131
Jun 2006136
May 2006139
Apr 2006134
Mar 2006150
Feb 2006132
Jan 2006133
Dec 2005120
Nov 2005154
Oct 2005236
Sept 2005256
Aug 2005256
Jul 2005266
Jun 2005234
May 2005181
Apr 2005184
Mar 2005152
Feb 2005134
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004116
Nov 2004127
Oct 2004118
Sept 2004103
Aug 2004101
Jul 200487.8
Jun 200490.6
May 200491.6
Apr 200485.9
Mar 200482.8
Feb 200472.9
Jan 200467.5
Dec 200379.8
Nov 200390.5
Oct 2003109
Sept 2003107
Aug 2003111
Jul 2003129
Jun 2003123
May 2003127
Apr 2003135
Mar 2003133
Feb 2003127
Jan 2003118

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-131-135-retail-kg.