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Sorghum (white) in Fada N'Gourma

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

169–273

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

167–288

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 169 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 167 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Fada N'Gourma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 169 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 167 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 212–264 241 202–286 353 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 195–272 234 169–304 329 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 169–273 220 121–315 294 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 167–280 222 122–333 296 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 167–288 226 111–337 305 –
Price history (272 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026247
Aug 2026246
Jul 2026236
Jun 2026230
May 2026231
Apr 2026212
Mar 2026202
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026235
Dec 2025247
Nov 2025232
Oct 2025262
Sept 2025273
Aug 2025318
Jul 2025315
Jun 2025252
May 2025324
Apr 2025328
Mar 2025322
Feb 2025317
Jan 2025310
Dec 2024278
Nov 2024320
Oct 2024315
Sept 2024334
Aug 2024342
Jul 2024321
Jun 2024267
May 2024263
Apr 2024268
Mar 2024269
Feb 2024261
Jan 2024266
Dec 2023266
Nov 2023258
Oct 2023258
Sept 2023278
Aug 2023276
Jul 2023276
Jun 2023286
May 2023268
Apr 2023268
Mar 2023282
Feb 2023296
Jan 2023277
Dec 2022261
Nov 2022282
Oct 2022319
Sept 2022368
Aug 2022377
Jul 2022353
Jun 2022342
May 2022327
Apr 2022294
Mar 2022282
Feb 2022244
Jan 2022230
Dec 2021233
Nov 2021232
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021233
Aug 2021199
Jul 2021197
Jun 2021188
May 2021192
Apr 2021188
Mar 2021172
Feb 2021160
Jan 2021160
Dec 2020159
Nov 2020133
Oct 2020186
Sept 2020185
Aug 2020161
Jul 2020145
Jun 2020132
May 2020129
Apr 2020129
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020128
Jan 2020130
Dec 2019122
Nov 2019115
Oct 2019129
Sept 2019129
Aug 2019145
Jul 2019128
Jun 2019141
May 2019160
Apr 2019160
Mar 2019160
Feb 2019160
Jan 2019167
Dec 2018167
Nov 2018169
Oct 2018196
Sept 2018209
Aug 2018213
Jul 2018206
Jun 2018193
May 2018192
Apr 2018193
Mar 2018189
Feb 2018177
Jan 2018177
Dec 2017166
Nov 2017149
Oct 2017177
Sept 2017197
Aug 2017193
Jul 2017183
Jun 2017173
May 2017161
Apr 2017154
Mar 2017145
Feb 2017137
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016119
Nov 2016137
Oct 2016161
Sept 2016192
Aug 2016177
Jul 2016161
Jun 2016161
May 2016161
Apr 2016161
Mar 2016161
Feb 2016161
Jan 2016161
Dec 2015153
Nov 2015145
Oct 2015169
Sept 2015161
Aug 2015161
Jul 2015161
Jun 2015161
May 2015161
Apr 2015153
Mar 2015161
Feb 2015161
Jan 2015149
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014201
Sept 2014170
Jul 2014157
Jun 2014171
May 2014165
Apr 2014154
Mar 2014137
Feb 2014158
Dec 2013137
Nov 2013148
Oct 2013143
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013158
Jul 2013158
Jun 2013150
May 2013154
Apr 2013154
Mar 2013150
Feb 2013150
Jan 2013145
Dec 2012132
Nov 2012138
Oct 2012184
Sept 2012215
Aug 2012209
Jul 2012203
Jun 2012203
May 2012198
Apr 2012203
Mar 2012188
Feb 2012175
Jan 2012171
Dec 2011165
Nov 2011151
Oct 2011150
Sept 2011139
Aug 2011158
Jul 2011138
Jun 2011134
May 2011132
Apr 2011124
Mar 2011119
Feb 2011133
Jan 2011132
Dec 2010116
Nov 2010107
Oct 2010121
Sept 2010141
Aug 2010155
Jul 2010144
Jun 2010140
May 2010135
Apr 2010140
Mar 2010138
Feb 2010140
Jan 2010140
May 2009161
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009157
Feb 2009157
Jan 2009144
Dec 2008121
Nov 2008121
Oct 2008134
Sept 2008201
Aug 2008196
Jul 2008170
Jun 2008150
May 2008155
Apr 2008140
Mar 200860.5
Feb 200887.8
Jan 2008118
Dec 2007114
Nov 2007128
Oct 2007132
Sept 2007114
Aug 2007120
Jul 2007104
Jun 200792
May 200793.5
Apr 2007106
Mar 200797.9
Feb 200799.4
Jan 200787.1
Dec 200691
Nov 200684.8
Oct 200681.7
Sept 2006105
Aug 2006112
Jul 2006114
Jun 2006114
May 2006123
Apr 2006124
Mar 2006120
Feb 2006106
Jan 2006113
Dec 2005106
Nov 2005105
Oct 2005132
Sept 2005200
Aug 2005226
Mar 2005120
Feb 2005109
Jan 2005113
Dec 2004130
Nov 2004100
Oct 2004102
Sept 200498.3
Aug 200497.9
Jul 200483.2
Jun 200474
May 200471.2
Apr 200474
Mar 200474
Feb 200457.5
Jan 200465.2
Dec 200367.3
Nov 200360
Oct 200365.9
Sept 200381.5
Aug 200381.1
Jul 200379
Jun 200393.1
May 200388.8
Apr 2003102
Mar 2003110
Feb 2003103
Jan 200398.8

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-134-135-retail-kg.