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Maize (white) in Tougan

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

169–228

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

138–238

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 169 and 228 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 138 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Tougan: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 169 and 228 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 138 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 186–213 199 167–227 284 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 173–220 199 152–242 277 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 169–228 197 148–260 281 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 153–231 197 101–286 274 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 138–238 196 66.2–320 271 –
Price history (282 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026197
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026206
Jun 2026199
May 2026199
Apr 2026199
Mar 2026199
Feb 2026235
Jan 2026248
Dec 2025260
Nov 2025274
Oct 2025276
Sept 2025288
Aug 2025290
Jul 2025314
Jun 2025297
May 2025306
Apr 2025284
Mar 2025273
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025259
Dec 2024255
Nov 2024275
Oct 2024248
Sept 2024287
Aug 2024287
Jul 2024287
Jun 2024236
May 2024236
Apr 2024236
Mar 2024231
Feb 2024232
Jan 2024232
Dec 2023232
Nov 2023232
Oct 2023232
Sept 2023233
Aug 2023244
Jul 2023243
Jun 2023245
May 2023245
Apr 2023244
Mar 2023243
Feb 2023243
Jan 2023245
Dec 2022245
Nov 2022253
Oct 2022267
Sept 2022280
Aug 2022284
Jul 2022276
Jun 2022280
May 2022280
Apr 2022258
Mar 2022249
Feb 2022214
Jan 2022202
Dec 2021202
Nov 2021202
Oct 2021179
Sept 2021173
Aug 2021179
Jul 2021163
Jun 2021176
May 2021176
Apr 2021176
Mar 2021170
Feb 2021164
Jan 2021164
Dec 2020170
Nov 2020164
Oct 2020164
Sept 2020161
Aug 2020136
Jul 2020110
Jun 2020109
May 2020109
Apr 2020109
Mar 2020114
Feb 2020109
Jan 2020109
Dec 2019113
Nov 2019126
Oct 2019119
Sept 2019135
Aug 2019134
Jul 2019133
Jun 2019142
May 2019155
Apr 2019155
Mar 2019154
Feb 2019151
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018156
Oct 2018175
Sept 2018181
Aug 2018181
Jul 2018181
Jun 2018186
May 2018181
Apr 2018181
Mar 2018181
Feb 2018181
Jan 2018181
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017180
Oct 2017176
Sept 201776Data error
Aug 2017173
Jul 2017177
Jun 2017172
May 2017171
Apr 2017169
Mar 2017171
Feb 2017172
Jan 2017172
Dec 2016172
Nov 2016172
Oct 2016172
Sept 2016172
Aug 2016173
Jul 2016174
Jun 2016177
May 2016176
Apr 2016141
Mar 2016139
Feb 2016137
Jan 2016139
Dec 2015135
Nov 2015138
Oct 2015141
Sept 2015140
Aug 2015140
Jul 2015137
Jun 2015153
May 2015141
Apr 2015140
Mar 2015140
Feb 2015135
Jan 2015160
Dec 2014125
Nov 2014133
Oct 2014137
Sept 2014137
Jul 2014137
Jun 2014141
May 2014139
Apr 2014183
Mar 2014141
Feb 2014143
Dec 2013157
Nov 2013135
Oct 2013139
Sept 2013152
Aug 2013156
Jul 2013159
Jun 2013163
Apr 2013183
Mar 2013183
Feb 2013182
Jan 2013170
Dec 2012180
Nov 2012172
Oct 2012164
Sept 2012200
Aug 2012223
Jul 2012223
Jun 2012223
May 2012223
Apr 2012223
Mar 2012202
Feb 2012190
Jan 2012189
Dec 2011189
Nov 2011194
Oct 2011196
Sept 2011165
Aug 2011142
Jul 2011145
Jun 2011148
May 2011165
Apr 2011174
Mar 2011154
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011135
Dec 2010140
Nov 2010134
Oct 2010132
Sept 2010145
Aug 2010152
Jul 2010163
Jun 2010162
May 2010158
Apr 2010157
Mar 2010162
Feb 2010165
Jan 2010164
Dec 2009153
Nov 2009142
Oct 2009152
Sept 2009183
Aug 2009195
Jul 2009187
Jun 2009161
May 2009177
Apr 2009174
Mar 2009162
Feb 2009154
Jan 2009161
Dec 2008142
Nov 2008144
Oct 2008162
Sept 2008202
Aug 2008191
Jul 2008186
Jun 2008182
May 2008152
Apr 2008137
Mar 2008134
Feb 200893.2
Jan 2008122
Dec 2007122
Nov 2007123
Oct 2007105
Sept 2007105
Aug 2007103
Jul 2007107
Jun 2007110
May 2007110
Apr 2007123
Mar 2007114
Feb 2007109
Jan 2007102
Dec 2006106
Nov 2006112
Oct 2006108
Sept 2006129
Aug 2006131
Jul 2006135
Jun 2006139
May 2006158
Apr 2006149
Mar 2006155
Feb 2006148
Jan 2006133
Dec 2005131
Nov 2005151
Oct 2005192
Sept 2005218
Aug 2005230
Jul 2005246
Jun 2005210
May 2005170
Apr 2005165
Mar 2005157
Feb 2005135
Jan 2005126
Dec 2004123
Nov 2004124
Oct 200496.5
Sept 200491.1
Aug 200496.5
Jul 2004100
Jun 200489.1
May 200490.6
Apr 200486.7
Mar 200492.2
Feb 200494
Jan 200495.3
Dec 2003110
Nov 2003104
Oct 2003102
Sept 2003107
Aug 2003109
Jul 2003131
Jun 2003151
May 2003156
Apr 2003156
Mar 2003154
Feb 2003156
Jan 2003156

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-141-67-retail-kg.