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Millet in Tougan

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

190–290

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

169–309

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 290 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 169 and 309 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tougan: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 290 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 169 and 309 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 224–267 241 213–304 370 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 207–282 242 182–344 352 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 190–290 238 134–386 344 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 180–307 235 123–473 329 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 169–309 237 96.1–424 332 –
Price history (407 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026269
Aug 2026241
Jul 2026235
Jun 2026230
May 2026237
Apr 2026238
Mar 2026241
Feb 2026273
Jan 2026264
Dec 2025263
Nov 2025316
Oct 2025305
Sept 2025335
Aug 2025374
Jul 2025372
Jun 2025382
May 2025382
Apr 2025373
Mar 2025398
Feb 2025315
Jan 2025335
Dec 2024305
Nov 2024309
Oct 2024352
Sept 2024402
Aug 2024402
Jul 2024306
Jun 2024327
May 2024332
Apr 2024332
Mar 2024335
Feb 2024362
Jan 2024322
Dec 2023322
Nov 2023322
Oct 2023322
Sept 2023318
Aug 2023314
Jul 2023315
Jun 2023322
May 2023302
Apr 2023282
Mar 2023282
Feb 2023281
Jan 2023281
Dec 2022313
Nov 2022332
Oct 2022362
Sept 2022398
Aug 2022434
Jul 2022376
Jun 2022341
May 2022339
Apr 2022333
Mar 2022322
Feb 2022282
Jan 2022251
Dec 2021229
Nov 2021215
Oct 2021201
Sept 2021201
Aug 2021197
Jul 2021201
Jun 2021199
May 2021201
Apr 2021198
Mar 2021198
Feb 2021193
Jan 2021190
Dec 2020192
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020206
Sept 2020214
Aug 2020189
Jul 2020157
Jun 2020151
May 2020151
Apr 2020151
Mar 2020144
Feb 2020129
Jan 2020123
Dec 2019119
Nov 2019119
Oct 2019123
Sept 2019127
Aug 2019130
Jul 2019135
Jun 2019141
May 2019177
Apr 2019183
Mar 2019183
Feb 2019177
Jan 2019168
Dec 2018168
Nov 2018188
Oct 2018198
Sept 2018238
Aug 2018238
Jul 2018238
Jun 2018238
May 2018238
Apr 2018235
Mar 2018230
Feb 2018224
Jan 2018206
Dec 2017210
Nov 2017228
Oct 2017230
Sept 2017218
Aug 2017210
Jul 2017206
Jun 2017206
May 2017208
Apr 2017197
Mar 2017190
Feb 2017190
Jan 2017183
Dec 2016183
Nov 2016183
Oct 2016184
Sept 2016183
Aug 2016187
Jul 2016183
Jun 2016183
May 2016183
Apr 2016183
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016167
Jan 2016165
Dec 2015167
Nov 2015171
Oct 2015172
Sept 2015180
Aug 2015186
Jul 2015190
Jun 2015187
May 2015176
Apr 2015177
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015179
Jan 2015165
Dec 2014162
Nov 2014182
Oct 2014186
Sept 2014186
Jul 2014185
Jun 2014170
May 2014162
Apr 2014182
Mar 2014163
Feb 2014171
Dec 2013149
Nov 2013155
Oct 2013155
Sept 2013185
Aug 2013190
Jul 2013190
Jun 2013177
May 2013177
Mar 2013189
Feb 2013189
Jan 2013178
Dec 2012173
Nov 2012204
Oct 2012234
Sept 2012231
Aug 2012245
Jul 2012249
Jun 2012263
May 2012262
Apr 2012245
Mar 2012223
Feb 2012197
Jan 2012195
Dec 2011188
Nov 2011177
Oct 2011163
Sept 2011147
Aug 2011147
Jul 2011141
Jun 2011131
May 2011130
Apr 2011139
Mar 2011140
Feb 2011141
Jan 2011133
Dec 2010123
Nov 2010127
Oct 2010127
Sept 2010139
Aug 2010163
Jul 2010153
Jun 2010143
May 2010140
Apr 2010135
Mar 2010145
Feb 2010147
Jan 2010151
Dec 2009129
Nov 2009133
Oct 2009139
Sept 2009146
Aug 2009187
Jul 2009174
Jun 2009171
May 2009151
Apr 2009157
Mar 2009155
Feb 2009153
Jan 2009139
Dec 2008124
Nov 2008124
Oct 2008131
Sept 2008147
Aug 2008148
Jul 2008149
Jun 2008144
May 2008137
Apr 2008121
Mar 2008119
Feb 2008119
Jan 2008107
Dec 200795.2
Nov 2007101
Oct 200794.2
Sept 200795.2
Aug 200796.6
Jul 200793.2
Jun 200793.2
May 200794.2
Apr 2007103
Mar 2007103
Feb 200792.3
Jan 200786.9
Dec 200683.3
Nov 200685.3
Oct 200696.8
Sept 2006114
Aug 2006118
Jul 2006123
Jun 2006128
May 2006129
Apr 2006126
Mar 2006122
Feb 2006116
Jan 2006119
Dec 2005120
Nov 2005125
Oct 2005169
Sept 2005202
Aug 2005206
Jul 2005220
Jun 2005195
May 2005164
Apr 2005156
Mar 2005156
Feb 2005122
Jan 2005115
Dec 2004107
Nov 2004108
Oct 200482.8
Sept 200482.7
Aug 200485.9
Jul 200474.2
Jun 200460.6
May 200476.6
Apr 200478.1
Mar 200472.3
Feb 200467.9
Jan 200470.3
Dec 200367.7
Nov 200375.8
Oct 2003102
Sept 2003112
Aug 2003113
Jul 2003123
Jun 2003134
May 2003133
Apr 2003133
Mar 2003132
Feb 2003133
Jan 2003133
Dec 2002136
Nov 2002120
Oct 2002149
Sept 2002156
Aug 2002169
Jul 2002170
Jun 2002143
May 2002151
Apr 2002141
Mar 2002131
Feb 2002129
Jan 2002111
Dec 2001110
Nov 2001105
Oct 2001144
Sept 2001168
Aug 2001168
Jul 2001162
Jun 2001170
May 2001159
Apr 2001151
Mar 2001119
Feb 2001100
Jan 200187.4
Dec 200092.8
Nov 200092.4
Oct 200091.2
Sept 200094.4
Aug 200086.8
Jul 200089.3
Jun 200094
May 200085.6
Apr 200081.2
Mar 200081.8
Feb 200082
Jan 200079.7
Dec 199982.2
Nov 199986
Oct 199995.7
Sept 199998.6
Aug 199999.1
Jul 199990.8
Jun 199996.7
May 1999103
Apr 1999104
Mar 199994.9
Feb 199998.3
Jan 199991.6
Dec 199882.7
Nov 199894.8
Oct 1998142
Sept 1998165
Aug 1998178
Jul 1998162
Jun 1998157
May 1998149
Apr 1998141
Mar 1998126
Feb 1998133
Jan 1998112
Dec 1997110
Nov 199795.4
Oct 199794.7
Sept 199790
Aug 199792.9
Jul 199793.4
Jun 199789.6
May 199795.6
Apr 199796
Mar 199799.5
Feb 199799.7
Jan 199796.2
Dec 199687.3
Nov 199687
Oct 1996121
Sept 1996156
Aug 1996188
Jul 1996139
Jun 1996122
May 1996116
Apr 1996116
Mar 1996112
Feb 199697.6
Jan 1996100
Dec 199587
Nov 199582.7
Oct 199572
Sept 199588
May 199562
Apr 199562.5
Mar 199563
Oct 199469
Sept 199470
Aug 199473.7
Jul 199469.8
Jun 199475
May 199466
Apr 199464
Mar 199456.8
Feb 199451
Jan 199445.5
Dec 199348
Nov 199351.8
Oct 199354.2
Sept 199355.3
Aug 199360.3
Jul 199360
Jun 199351.8
May 199349.8
Apr 199348.5
Mar 199346.7
Feb 199333
Jan 199352.5
Dec 199252
Nov 199247
Oct 199290.3
Sept 199273.5
Aug 199285
Jul 199275.2
Jun 199271.5
May 199268
Apr 199266
Mar 199269
Feb 199261.6
Jan 199253

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-141-73-retail-kg.