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Sorghum (white) in Faramana

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

84.6–148

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

79.4–162

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 84.6 and 148 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 79.4 and 162 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Faramana: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 84.6 and 148 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 79.4 and 162 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 117–147 133 101–159 204 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 99.5–148 128 88.3–168 187 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 84.6–148 116 62.6–177 158 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 78.6–153 115 47.2–196 158 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 79.4–162 117 49.1–220 163 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026156
Aug 2026134
Jul 2026137
Jun 2026137
May 2026136
Apr 2026121
Mar 2026126
Feb 2026121
Jan 2026118
Dec 2025121
Nov 2025117
Oct 2025179
Sept 2025170
Aug 2025178
Jul 2025160
Jun 2025171
May 2025170
Apr 2025197
Mar 2025201
Feb 2025190
Jan 2025170
Dec 2024175
Nov 2024206
Oct 2024257
Sept 2024253
Aug 2024265
Jul 2024232
Jun 2024211
May 2024194
Apr 2024188
Mar 2024167
Feb 2024157
Jan 2024151
Dec 2023149
Nov 2023161
Oct 2023157
Sept 2023182
Aug 2023170
Jul 2023158
Jun 2023145
May 2023159
Apr 2023169
Mar 2023171
Feb 2023170
Jan 2023160
Dec 2022148
Nov 2022168
Oct 2022226
Sept 2022244
Aug 2022242
Jul 2022248
Jun 2022245
May 2022224
Apr 2022222
Mar 2022206
Feb 2022188
Jan 2022159
Dec 2021148
Nov 2021128
Oct 2021123
Sept 2021137
Aug 2021133
Jul 2021125
Jun 2021125
May 2021124
Apr 2021123
Mar 2021120
Feb 2021109
Jan 2021100
Dec 202095
Nov 202093
Oct 2020103
Sept 2020119
Aug 2020123
Jul 2020100
Jun 202094
May 202088
Apr 202091
Mar 202098
Feb 202081
Jan 202075
Dec 201970
Nov 201966
Oct 201974
Sept 201970
Aug 201988
Jul 201974
Jun 201974
May 201993
Apr 201996
Mar 201999
Feb 201999
Jan 201987
Dec 201889
Nov 201887
Oct 2018118
Sept 2018162
Aug 2018183
Jul 2018169
Jun 2018167
May 2018164
Apr 2018159
Mar 2018151
Feb 2018150
Jan 2018135
Dec 2017121
Nov 2017110
Oct 2017136
Sept 2017152
Aug 2017133
Jul 2017127
Jun 2017127
May 2017127
Apr 2017127
Mar 2017121
Feb 2017102
Jan 2017102
Dec 2016102
Nov 201699
Oct 2016108
Sept 2016121
Aug 2016108
Jul 2016101
Jun 2016102
May 2016102
Apr 201697
Mar 201682
Feb 201680
Jan 201680
Dec 201580
Nov 201580
Oct 201599
Sept 2015122
Aug 2015125
Jul 2015121
Jun 2015116
May 2015110
Apr 2015100
Mar 201598
Feb 201588
Jan 2015100

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3371-135-retail-kg.