Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Rice (local) in Founza

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

285–393

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

265–418

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 393 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 265 and 418 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Founza: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 393 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 265 and 418 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 325–375 356 307–392 381 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 308–386 354 276–422 374 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 285–393 345 262–475 361 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 272–410 344 252–508 357 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 265–418 344 190–496 373 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026350
Aug 2026356
Jul 2026353
Jun 2026351
May 2026352
Apr 2026386
Mar 2026367
Feb 2026354
Jan 2026346
Dec 2025310
Nov 2025284
Oct 2025322
Sept 2025304
Aug 2025324
Jul 2025351
Jun 2025393
May 2025376
Apr 2025385
Mar 2025377
Feb 2025365
Jan 2025378
Dec 2024383
Nov 2024415
Oct 2024418
Sept 2024445
Aug 2024425
Jul 2024407
Jun 2024339
May 2024336
Apr 2024339
Mar 2024340
Feb 2024334
Jan 2024341
Dec 2023323
Nov 2023337
Oct 2023380
Sept 2023387
Aug 2023318
Jul 2023340
Jun 2023344
May 2023367
Apr 2023367
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023367
Jan 2023358
Dec 2022332
Nov 2022322
Oct 2022336
Sept 2022361
Aug 2022365
Jul 2022329
Jun 2022316
May 2022307
Apr 2022308
Mar 2022270
Feb 2022317
Jan 2022304
Dec 2021308
Nov 2021292
Oct 2021280
Sept 2021297
Aug 2021304
Jul 2021294
Jun 2021331
May 2021306
Apr 2021326
Mar 2021331
Feb 2021345
Jan 2021345
Dec 2020288
Nov 2020302
Oct 2020297
Sept 2020317
Aug 2020283
Jul 2020308
Jun 2020296
May 2020288
Mar 2020258
Feb 2020263
Jan 2020273
Dec 2019267
Nov 2019279
Oct 2019279
Sept 2019273
Aug 2019263
Jul 2019263
Jun 2019265
May 2019265
Apr 2019290
Mar 2019298
Feb 2019298
Jan 2019298
Dec 2018294
Nov 2018294
Oct 2018317
Sept 2018322
Aug 2018326
Jul 2018313
Jun 2018305
May 2018317
Apr 2018340
Mar 2018313
Feb 2018295
Jan 2018280
Dec 2017280
Nov 2017306
Oct 2017323
Sept 2017323
Aug 2017323
Jul 2017298
Jun 2017290
May 2017242
Apr 2017298
Mar 2017290
Feb 2017292
Jan 2017300
Dec 2016300
Nov 2016290
Oct 2016290
Sept 2016278
Aug 2016301
Jul 2016270
Jun 2016252
May 2016258
Apr 2016242
Mar 2016242
Feb 2016242
Jan 2016258
Dec 2015258
Nov 2015246
Oct 2015286
Sept 2015290
Aug 2015316
Jul 2015310
Jun 2015323
May 2015306
Apr 2015306
Mar 2015286
Feb 2015230
Jan 2015209

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3372-71-retail-kg.