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Beans (niebe) in Gaoua

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

317–549

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

326–612

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 317 and 549 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 326 and 612 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Gaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 317 and 549 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 326 and 612 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 424–534 485 382–579 633 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 361–565 472 319–664 551 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 317–549 418 288–648 479 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 312–571 416 263–681 484 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 326–612 455 231–625 538 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026486
Aug 2026492
Jul 2026444
Jun 2026412
May 2026474
Apr 2026472
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026469
Jan 2026441
Dec 2025409
Nov 2025429
Oct 2025384
Sept 2025534
Aug 2025622
Jul 2025668
Jun 2025634
May 2025699
Apr 2025534
Mar 2025684
Feb 2025688
Jan 2025654
Dec 2024587
Nov 2024534
Oct 2024825
Sept 2024873
Aug 2024826
Jul 2024722
Jun 2024652
May 2024633
Apr 2024544
Mar 2024552
Feb 2024528
Jan 2024412
Dec 2023338
Nov 2023339
Oct 2023316
Sept 2023347
Aug 2023386
Jul 2023372
Jun 2023380
May 2023405
Apr 2023418
Mar 2023422
Feb 2023410
Jan 2023415
Dec 2022332
Nov 2022343
Oct 2022404
Sept 2022555
Aug 2022627
Jul 2022596
Jun 2022603
May 2022620
Apr 2022597
Mar 2022629
Feb 2022529
Jan 2022492
Dec 2021443
Nov 2021420
Oct 2021660
Sept 2021605
Aug 2021471
Jul 2021465
Jun 2021481
May 2021457
Apr 2021429
Mar 2021408
Feb 2021378
Jan 2021339
Dec 2020308
Nov 2020305
Oct 2020335
Sept 2020349
Aug 2020349
Jul 2020354
Jun 2020352
May 2020346
Apr 2020348
Mar 2020330
Feb 2020307
Jan 2020304
Dec 2019292
Nov 2019275
Oct 2019294
Sept 2019462
Aug 2019316
Jul 2019320
Jun 2019330
May 2019332
Apr 2019328
Mar 2019320
Feb 2019322
Jan 2019324
Dec 2018310
Nov 2018311
Oct 2018366
Sept 2018434
Aug 2018396
Jul 2018380
Jun 2018390
May 2018402
Apr 2018406
Mar 2018401
Feb 2018388
Jan 2018348
Dec 2017320
Nov 2017311
Oct 2017345
Sept 2017336
Aug 2017370
Jul 2017363
Jun 2017364
May 2017361
Apr 2017371
Mar 2017384
Feb 2017342
Jan 2017298
Dec 2016277
Nov 2016295
Oct 2016325
Sept 2016339
Aug 2016339
Jul 2016344
Jun 2016355
May 2016360
Apr 2016341
Mar 2016313
Feb 2016306
Jan 2016453
Nov 2015236
Oct 2015320
Sept 2015343
Aug 2015348
Jul 2015316
Jun 2015308
May 2015316
Apr 2015291
Mar 2015300
Feb 2015282
Jan 2015261

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3373-120-retail-kg.