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Sorghum (white) in Gounghin

CENTRE, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

205–273

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

192–279

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 205 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 192 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Gounghin: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 205 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 192 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 225–264 241 215–273 319 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 215–268 241 214–281 319 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 205–273 240 204–311 306 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 198–276 239 189–315 298 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 192–279 239 157–279 303 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026241
Aug 2026241
Jul 2026230
Jun 2026227
May 2026236
Apr 2026229
Mar 2026230
Feb 2026236
Jan 2026245
Dec 2025242
Nov 2025247
Oct 2025257
Sept 2025264
Aug 2025283
Jul 2025322
Jun 2025338
May 2025336
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025332
Feb 2025316
Jan 2025306
Dec 2024329
Nov 2024340
Oct 2024351
Sept 2024340
Aug 2024365
Jul 2024355
Jun 2024334
May 2024312
Apr 2024304
Mar 2024298
Feb 2024266
Jan 2024264
Dec 2023267
Nov 2023268
Oct 2023289
Sept 2023289
Aug 2023293
Jul 2023283
Jun 2023288
May 2023284
Apr 2023282
Mar 2023283
Feb 2023285
Jan 2023284
Dec 2022280
Nov 2022305
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022368
Aug 2022365
Jul 2022343
Jun 2022334
May 2022338
Apr 2022339
Mar 2022323
Feb 2022282
Jan 2022254
Dec 2021236
Nov 2021242
Oct 2021230
Sept 2021241
Aug 2021233
Jul 2021226
Jun 2021216
May 2021213
Apr 2021210
Mar 2021207
Feb 2021199
Jan 2021199
Dec 2020201
Nov 2020201
Oct 2020210
Sept 2020202
Aug 2020210
Jul 2020205
Jun 2020195
May 2020180
Apr 2020176
Mar 2020178
Feb 2020189
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019195
Nov 2019196
Oct 2019188
Sept 2019188
Aug 2019188
Jul 2019204
Jun 2019210
May 2019210
Apr 2019209
Mar 2019212
Feb 2019212
Jan 2019212
Dec 2018211
Nov 2018210
Oct 2018244
Sept 2018247
Aug 2018246
Jul 2018243
Jun 2018239
May 2018224
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018227
Feb 2018227
Jan 2018225
Dec 2017209
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017223
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017223
Jul 2017207
Jun 2017203
May 2017203
Apr 2017203
Mar 2017204
Feb 2017204
Jan 2017198
Dec 2016192
Nov 2016203
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016188
Aug 2016188
Jul 2016188
Jun 2016188
May 2016184
Apr 2016188
Mar 2016188
Feb 2016154
Jan 2016156
Dec 2015156
Nov 2015181
Oct 2015188
Sept 2015188
Aug 2015191
Jul 2015188
Jun 2015172
May 2015156
Apr 2015156
Mar 2015160
Feb 2015177
Jan 2015168

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3376-135-retail-kg.