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Rice (local) in Mogtédo

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

251–300

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

245–315

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 251 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 245 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Mogtédo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 251 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 245 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 274–299 282 260–322 341 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 265–299 281 254–341 330 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 251–300 277 222–314 318 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 249–304 276 215–331 320 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 245–315 276 203–386 325 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026311
Aug 2026281
Jul 2026274
Jun 2026271
May 2026275
Apr 2026278
Mar 2026279
Feb 2026285
Jan 2026286
Dec 2025285
Nov 2025306
Oct 2025319
Sept 2025326
Aug 2025346
Jul 2025322
Jun 2025330
May 2025350
Apr 2025354
Mar 2025353
Feb 2025353
Jan 2025396
Dec 2024383
Nov 2024345
Oct 2024372
Sept 2024388
Aug 2024368
Jul 2024339
Jun 2024339
May 2024339
Apr 2024323
Mar 2024322
Feb 2024322
Jan 2024323
Dec 2023323
Nov 2023324
Oct 2023327
Sept 2023327
Aug 2023322
Jul 2023322
Jun 2023321
May 2023321
Apr 2023322
Mar 2023312
Feb 2023317
Jan 2023313
Dec 2022304
Nov 2022316
Oct 2022325
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022344
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022317
May 2022322
Apr 2022322
Mar 2022324
Feb 2022319
Jan 2022303
Dec 2021291
Nov 2021274
Oct 2021270
Sept 2021274
Aug 2021271
Jul 2021283
Jun 2021294
May 2021312
Apr 2021305
Mar 2021299
Feb 2021291
Jan 2021288
Dec 2020289
Nov 2020292
Oct 2020301
Sept 2020318
Aug 2020313
Jul 2020285
Jun 2020278
Mar 2020283
Feb 2020283
Jan 2020275
Dec 2019267
Nov 2019267
Oct 2019267
Sept 2019269
Aug 2019275
Jul 2019287
Jun 2019275
May 2019283
Apr 2019283
Mar 2019283
Feb 2019283
Jan 2019275
Dec 2018288
Nov 2018283
Oct 2018322
Sept 2018317
Aug 2018317
Jul 2018315
Jun 2018325
May 2018317
Apr 2018317
Mar 2018317
Feb 2018306
Jan 2018290
Dec 2017277
Nov 2017267
Oct 2017267
Sept 2017298
Aug 2017292
Jul 2017292
Jun 2017294
May 2017300
Apr 2017288
Mar 2017287
Feb 2017283
Jan 2017271
Dec 2016267
Nov 2016273
Oct 2016296
Sept 2016300
Aug 2016300
Jul 2016300
Jun 2016304
May 2016303
Apr 2016300
Mar 2016300
Feb 2016296
Jan 2016290
Dec 2015286
Nov 2015290
Oct 2015298
Sept 2015308
Aug 2015302
Jul 2015300
Jun 2015300
May 2015300
Apr 2015289
Mar 2015290
Feb 2015283
Jan 2015275

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3385-71-retail-kg.