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Beans (niebe) in Ouargaye

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

200–374

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

218–445

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 200 and 374 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 218 and 445 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Ouargaye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 200 and 374 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 218 and 445 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 299–366 323 277–424 522 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 242–378 300 182–465 409 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 200–374 272 141–505 356 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 196–393 275 132–539 359 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 218–445 312 131–460 421 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026332
Aug 2026321
Jul 2026348
Jun 2026351
May 2026377
Apr 2026365
Mar 2026329
Feb 2026326
Jan 2026318
Dec 2025305
Nov 2025325
Oct 2025364
Sept 2025383
Aug 2025457
Jul 2025543
Jun 2025529
May 2025478
Apr 2025563
Mar 2025531
Feb 2025527
Jan 2025581
Dec 2024403
Nov 2024341
Oct 2024592
Sept 2024800
Aug 2024524
Jul 2024482
Jun 2024479
May 2024483
Apr 2024386
Mar 2024371
Feb 2024372
Jan 2024329
Dec 2023289
Nov 2023271
Oct 2023239
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023346
Jul 2023336
Jun 2023327
May 2023323
Apr 2023285
Mar 2023293
Feb 2023296
Jan 2023287
Dec 2022265
Nov 2022263
Oct 2022318
Sept 2022657
Aug 2022622
Jul 2022606
Jun 2022564
May 2022560
Apr 2022551
Mar 2022544
Feb 2022559
Jan 2022544
Dec 2021480
Nov 2021445
Oct 2021446
Sept 2021537
Aug 2021515
Jul 2021485
Jun 2021432
May 2021391
Apr 2021382
Mar 2021390
Feb 2021356
Jan 2021322
Dec 2020328
Nov 2020329
Oct 2020348
Sept 2020368
Aug 2020372
Jul 2020308
Jun 2020297
May 2020314
Apr 2020271
Mar 2020278
Feb 2020306
Jan 2020306
Dec 2019212
Nov 2019214
Oct 2019263
Sept 2019262
Aug 2019237
Jul 2019257
Jun 2019248
May 2019263
Apr 2019280
Mar 2019258
Feb 2019273
Jan 2019241
Dec 2018215
Nov 2018220
Oct 2018260
Sept 2018389
Aug 2018402
Jul 2018407
Jun 2018381
May 2018375
Apr 2018360
Mar 2018369
Feb 2018359
Jan 2018328
Dec 2017269
Nov 2017285
Oct 2017312
Sept 2017382
Aug 2017358
Jul 2017332
Jun 2017326
May 2017322
Apr 2017296
Mar 2017314
Feb 2017303
Jan 2017276
Dec 2016227
Nov 2016244
Oct 2016282
Sept 2016343
Aug 2016379
Jul 2016365
Jun 2016351
May 2016366
Apr 2016357
Mar 2016349
Feb 2016342
Jan 2016328
Dec 2015219
Nov 2015234
Oct 2015292
Sept 2015309
Aug 2015310
Jul 2015312
Jun 2015302
May 2015288
Apr 2015270
Mar 2015247
Feb 2015259
Jan 2015219

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3389-120-retail-kg.