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Rice (local) in Po

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

355–454

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

326–473

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 355 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 326 and 473 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Po: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 355 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 326 and 473 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 379–445 421 367–485 456 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 369–450 420 347–498 458 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 355–454 414 322–506 443 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 323–459 406 276–555 424 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 326–473 403 295–590 422 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026411
Aug 2026421
Jul 2026456
Jun 2026417
May 2026429
Apr 2026376
Mar 2026436
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026361
Dec 2025391
Nov 2025437
Oct 2025466
Sept 2025468
Aug 2025452
Jul 2025455
Jun 2025446
May 2025440
Apr 2025437
Mar 2025424
Feb 2025437
Jan 2025443
Dec 2024443
Nov 2024452
Oct 2024461
Sept 2024455
Aug 2024416
Jul 2024422
Jun 2024442
May 2024412
Apr 2024405
Mar 2024394
Feb 2024403
Jan 2024394
Dec 2023409
Nov 2023433
Oct 2023460
Sept 2023417
Aug 2023418
Jul 2023403
Jun 2023400
May 2023396
Apr 2023402
Mar 2023394
Feb 2023383
Jan 2023369
Dec 2022388
Nov 2022393
Oct 2022417
Sept 2022406
Aug 2022394
Jul 2022397
Jun 2022367
May 2022356
Apr 2022344
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022340
Jan 2022338
Dec 2021336
Nov 2021369
Oct 2021369
Sept 2021366
Aug 2021369
Jul 2021354
Jun 2021362
May 2021355
Apr 2021354
Mar 2021352
Feb 2021317
Jan 2021331
Dec 2020326
Nov 2020335
Oct 2020346
Sept 2020346
Aug 2020361
Jul 2020329
Jun 2020312
May 2020318
Apr 2020299
Mar 2020297
Feb 2020274
Jan 2020307
Dec 2019294
Nov 2019315
Oct 2019313
Sept 2019312
Aug 2019326
Jul 2019317
Jun 2019319
May 2019338
Apr 2019345
Mar 2019344
Feb 2019313
Jan 2019344
Dec 2018344
Nov 2018346
Oct 2018376
Sept 2018396
Aug 2018383
Jul 2018383
Jun 2018383
May 2018370
Apr 2018348
Mar 2018346
Feb 2018344
Jan 2018341
Dec 2017342
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017357
Jul 2017348
Jun 2017344
May 2017344
Apr 2017344
Mar 2017335
Feb 2017351
Jan 2017344
Dec 2016331
Nov 2016331
Oct 2016342
Sept 2016361
Aug 2016344
Jul 2016352
Jun 2016336
May 2016336
Apr 2016336
Mar 2016336
Feb 2016336
Jan 2016313
Dec 2015293
Nov 2015336
Oct 2015365
Sept 2015336
Aug 2015336
Jul 2015338
Jun 2015338
May 2015338
Apr 2015338
Mar 2015332
Feb 2015343

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3390-71-retail-kg.