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Beans (niebe) in Toma

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

313–497

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

307–547

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 313 and 497 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 307 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Toma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 313 and 497 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 307 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 389–480 440 364–506 546 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 335–496 415 256–522 468 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 313–497 387 260–557 445 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 303–510 382 243–600 440 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 307–547 414 198–623 481 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026464
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026458
Jun 2026454
May 2026457
Apr 2026459
Mar 2026464
Feb 2026458
Jan 2026454
Dec 2025424
Nov 2025418
Oct 2025461
Sept 2025585
Aug 2025674
Jul 2025578
Jun 2025626
May 2025651
Apr 2025668
Mar 2025675
Feb 2025658
Jan 2025564
Dec 2024498
Nov 2024449
Oct 2024485
Sept 2024576
Aug 2024535
Jul 2024547
Jun 2024518
May 2024490
Apr 2024454
Mar 2024486
Feb 2024398
Jan 2024363
Dec 2023348
Nov 2023355
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023284
Aug 2023296
Jul 2023284
Jun 2023289
May 2023268
Apr 2023261
Mar 2023305
Feb 2023303
Jan 2023269
Dec 2022298
Nov 2022288
Oct 2022371
Sept 2022518
Aug 2022519
Jul 2022518
Jun 2022539
May 2022530
Apr 2022541
Mar 2022510
Feb 2022471
Jan 2022456
Dec 2021374
Nov 2021465
Oct 2021396
Sept 2021459
Aug 2021428
Jul 2021421
Jun 2021416
May 2021407
Apr 2021404
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021377
Jan 2021339
Dec 2020305
Nov 2020294
Oct 2020327
Sept 2020371
Aug 2020331
Jul 2020294
Jun 2020285
May 2020281
Apr 2020281
Mar 2020281
Feb 2020258
Jan 2020214
Dec 2019202
Nov 2019199
Oct 2019235
Sept 2019248
Aug 2019251
Jul 2019240
Jun 2019233
May 2019276
Apr 2019284
Mar 2019288
Feb 2019287
Jan 2019284
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018255
Oct 2018261
Sept 2018377
Aug 2018369
Jul 2018355
Jun 2018363
May 2018364
Apr 2018311
Mar 2018312
Feb 2018329
Jan 2018333
Dec 2017268
Nov 2017273
Oct 2017285
Sept 2017359
Aug 2017366
Jul 2017358
Jun 2017419
May 2017358
Apr 2017357
Mar 2017347
Feb 2017291
Jan 2017306
Dec 2016289
Nov 2016304
Oct 2016323
Sept 2016299
Aug 2016356
Jul 2016323
Jun 2016296
May 2016333
Apr 2016265
Mar 2016291
Feb 2016226
Jan 2016268
Dec 2015225
Nov 2015228
Oct 2015307
Sept 2015307
Aug 2015304
Jul 2015262
Jun 2015273
May 2015298
Apr 2015294
Mar 2015266
Feb 2015255

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3398-120-retail-kg.