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Maize in Sikasso Centre

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 37% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

117–170

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

108–187

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 117 and 170 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 108 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Sikasso Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 117 and 170 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 108 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 138–167 149 131–176 255 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 128–167 148 119–181 235 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 117–170 141 106–197 216 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 113–182 140 99.3–246 213 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 108–187 135 87.5–239 205 –
Price history (274 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026150
Jul 2026154
Jun 2026150
May 2026153
Apr 2026155
Mar 2026159
Feb 2026159
Jan 2026165
Dec 2025165
Oct 2025170
Sept 2025188
Aug 2025201
Jul 2025216
Jun 2025225
May 2025230
Apr 2025233
Mar 2025196
Feb 2025219
Jan 2025196
Dec 2024195
Nov 2024206
Oct 2024260
Sept 2024287
Aug 2024274
Jul 2024265
Jun 2024219
May 2024203
Apr 2024198
Mar 2024198
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023183
Oct 2023207
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023216
Jul 2023200
Jun 2023210
May 2023224
Apr 2023228
Mar 2023225
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022225
Oct 2022252
Sept 2022299
Aug 2022299
Jul 2022298
Jun 2022300
May 2022298
Apr 2022288
Mar 2022249
Feb 2022238
Jan 2022215
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021211
Oct 2021216
Sept 2021228
Aug 2021212
Jul 2021185
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021174
Mar 2021173
Feb 2021168
Jan 2021135
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020135
Oct 2020149
Sept 2020145
Aug 2020138
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020122
Jan 2020120
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019121
Oct 2019124
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Apr 2019125
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019127
Dec 2018125
Nov 2018127
Oct 2018150
Sept 2018201
Aug 2018191
Jul 2018176
Jun 2018175
May 2018176
Apr 2018174
Mar 2018154
Feb 2018147
Jan 2018145
Dec 2017143
Nov 2017139
Oct 2017159
Sept 2017156
Aug 2017351Data error
Jul 2017140
Jun 2017141
May 2017134
Apr 2017126
Mar 2017126
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017126
Dec 2016124
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016139
Sept 2016145
Aug 2016147
Jul 2016147
Jun 2016149
May 2016144
Apr 2016128
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016123
Dec 2015123
Nov 2015141
Oct 2015172
Aug 2015145
Jul 2015146
Jun 2015147
May 2015133
Apr 2015125
Mar 2015108
Feb 2015103
Jan 2015109
Dec 2014109
Nov 2014120
Oct 2014129
Sept 2014126
Aug 2014125
Jul 2014125
Jun 2014125
May 2014124
Apr 2014125
Mar 2014125
Feb 2014125
Jan 2014127
Dec 2013127
Nov 2013127
Oct 2013129
Sept 2013130
Aug 2013134
Jul 2013136
Jun 2013139
May 2013149
Apr 2013150
Mar 2013142
Feb 2013134
Jan 2013126
Nov 2012141
Oct 2012161
Sept 2012214
Aug 2012201
Jul 2012219
Jun 2012219
May 2012221
Apr 2012194
Mar 2012177
Feb 2012175
Jan 2012175
Dec 2011175
Oct 2011174
Sept 2011165
Aug 2011162
Jul 2011153
Jun 2011144
May 2011137
Apr 2011128
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011120
Jan 2011120
Dec 2010117
Nov 2010114
Oct 2010124
Sept 2010128
Aug 2010135
Jul 2010139
Jun 2010124
May 2010132
Apr 2010128
Mar 2010130
Feb 2010132
Jan 2010132
Dec 2009123
Nov 2009120
Oct 2009143
Sept 2009162
Aug 2009168
Jul 2009163
Jun 2009156
May 2009148
Apr 2009146
Mar 2009149
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009139
Dec 2008118
Nov 2008122
Oct 2008144
Sept 2008173
Aug 2008168
Jul 2008176
Jun 2008158
May 2008134
Apr 2008124
Mar 2008114
Feb 2008112
Jan 2008108
Dec 2007109
Nov 2007109
Oct 2007113
Sept 2007112
Aug 2007113
Jul 2007101
Jun 200794
May 200792.5
Apr 200788
Mar 200788.8
Feb 200786.8
Jan 200782.8
Dec 200676.2
Nov 200674.9
Oct 200688.6
Sept 2006104
Aug 2006102
Jul 2006103
Jun 2006110
May 2006110
Apr 2006110
Mar 2006109
Feb 2006103
Jan 200696
Dec 200594.3
Nov 200589.1
Oct 2005110
Sept 2005173
Jul 2005190
Jun 2005170
May 2005158
Apr 2005138
Mar 2005125
Feb 2005106
Jan 200586
Dec 200485.8
Nov 200485.8
Oct 200486.5
Sept 200483.9
Aug 200487.7
Jul 200480.2
Jun 200471.6
Apr 200466.8
Mar 200460.8
Feb 200459.2
Jan 200461.7
Dec 200362.8
Nov 200368.5
Oct 200388.4
Sept 2003104
Aug 2003107
Jul 2003116
Jun 2003119
May 2003119
Apr 2003116
Mar 2003117
Feb 2003116
Jan 2003119

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-256-51-retail-kg.