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Sorghum in Sikasso Centre

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–249

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

159–265

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 249 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Sikasso Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 249 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 193–224 202 169–248 298 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 181–233 202 158–281 301 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–249 199 145–307 299 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 157–271 198 126–426 284 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 159–265 195 145–338 266 –
Price history (274 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026203
Mar 2026212
Feb 2026212
Jan 2026231
Dec 2025240
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025265
Apr 2025286
Mar 2025270
Feb 2025266
Jan 2025270
Dec 2024293
Nov 2024330
Oct 2024349
Sept 2024342
Aug 2024349
Jul 2024333
Jun 2024275
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024249
Nov 2023251
Oct 2023254
Sept 2023256
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023270
May 2023294
Apr 2023295
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022333
Nov 2022380
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022391
Jul 2022354
Jun 2022349
May 2022342
Apr 2022305
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022259
Jan 2022228
Dec 2021238
Nov 2021211
Oct 2021203
Sept 2021203
Aug 2021199
Jul 2021194
Jun 2021193
May 2021189
Apr 2021192
Mar 2021184
Feb 2021171
Jan 2021169
Dec 2020186
Nov 2020194
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020198
Aug 2020198
Jul 2020191
Jun 2020193
May 2020193
Apr 2020194
Mar 2020192
Feb 2020191
Jan 2020186
Dec 2019198
Nov 2019186
Oct 2019191
Sept 2019188
Aug 2019190
Jul 2019192
Jun 2019194
May 2019198
Apr 2019195
Mar 2019195
Feb 2019197
Jan 2019235
Dec 2018217
Nov 2018235
Oct 2018247
Sept 2018249
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018237
Jun 2018225
May 2018241
Apr 2018231
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018220
Jan 2018205
Dec 2017215
Nov 2017220
Oct 2017227
Sept 2017213
Aug 2017197
Jul 2017185
Jun 2017178
May 2017178
Apr 2017176
Mar 2017174
Feb 2017168
Jan 2017158
Dec 2016153
Nov 2016171
Oct 2016168
Sept 2016171
Aug 2016173
Jul 2016174
Jun 2016175
May 2016171
Apr 2016173
Mar 2016166
Feb 2016165
Jan 2016158
Dec 2015170
Nov 2015179
Oct 2015183
Aug 2015180
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015157
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015152
Feb 2015149
Jan 2015152
Dec 2014158
Nov 2014180
Oct 2014177
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014173
Jul 2014170
Jun 2014168
May 2014167
Apr 2014163
Mar 2014165
Feb 2014166
Jan 2014149
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013150
Oct 2013150
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013155
Jul 2013151
Jun 2013164
May 2013175
Apr 2013175
Mar 2013175
Feb 2013174
Jan 2013160
Nov 2012215
Oct 2012234
Sept 2012249
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
May 2012250
Apr 2012235
Mar 2012224
Feb 2012213
Jan 2012202
Dec 2011200
Oct 2011178
Sept 2011165
Aug 2011162
Jul 2011152
Jun 2011146
May 2011141
Apr 2011136
Mar 2011142
Feb 2011134
Jan 2011124
Dec 2010131
Nov 2010139
Oct 2010142
Sept 2010142
Aug 2010146
Jul 2010148
Jun 2010139
May 2010141
Apr 2010139
Mar 2010139
Feb 2010140
Jan 2010134
Dec 2009125
Nov 2009148
Oct 2009163
Sept 2009175
Aug 2009181
Jul 2009165
Jun 2009157
May 2009145
Apr 2009142
Mar 2009145
Feb 2009144
Jan 2009133
Dec 2008116
Nov 2008122
Oct 2008145
Sept 2008167
Aug 2008167
Jul 2008173
Jun 2008143
May 2008125
Apr 2008124
Mar 2008116
Feb 2008114
Jan 2008116
Dec 2007123
Nov 2007123
Oct 2007123
Sept 2007124
Aug 2007123
Jul 2007113
Jun 2007102
May 2007106
Apr 2007108
Mar 2007119
Feb 2007107
Jan 2007100
Dec 200699.2
Nov 2006103
Oct 2006116
Sept 2006123
Aug 2006123
Jul 2006124
Jun 2006125
May 2006125
Apr 2006125
Mar 2006125
Feb 2006123
Jan 2006122
Dec 2005125
Nov 2005133
Oct 2005160
Sept 2005207
Jul 2005205
Jun 2005181
May 2005164
Apr 2005150
Mar 2005149
Feb 2005130
Jan 200599.7
Dec 2004100
Nov 200499.7
Oct 200497
Sept 200494
Aug 200496.1
Jul 200489.7
Jun 200486
Apr 200486.6
Mar 200486.5
Feb 200483.7
Jan 200485.3
Dec 200397.6
Nov 2003110
Oct 2003127
Sept 2003135
Aug 2003143
Jul 2003150
Jun 2003150
May 2003150
Apr 2003151
Mar 2003151
Feb 2003150
Jan 2003150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-256-65-retail-kg.