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Sorghum in Niono

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

208–302

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

196–336

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 208 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 336 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Niono: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 208 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 336 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 512); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 238–275 252 216–317 364 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 222–293 251 216–388 359 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 208–302 246 187–387 336 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 194–331 241 157–512 321 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 196–336 240 166–454 321 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025273
Oct 2025278
Sept 2025290
Aug 2025320
May 2025350
Apr 2025330
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025348
Jan 2025340
Dec 2024340
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024418
Jun 2024337
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023296
Jun 2023274
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022323
Oct 2022380
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022395
Jul 2022388
Jun 2022383
May 2022390
Apr 2022370
Mar 2022313
Feb 2022291
Jan 2022248
Dec 2021239
Nov 2021218
Oct 2021198
Sept 2021190
Aug 2021185
Jul 2021181
Jun 2021180
May 2021177
Apr 2021175
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020171
Oct 2020180
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020181
Jul 2020156
Jun 2020148
May 2020140
Apr 2020139
Mar 2020135
Feb 2020128
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019135
Nov 2019125
Oct 2019132
Sept 2019139
Aug 2019140
Jul 2019140
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019187
Dec 2018154
Nov 2018188
Oct 2018226
Sept 2018237
Aug 2018235
Jul 2018230
Jun 2018230
May 2018227
Apr 2018220
Mar 2018220
Feb 2018215
Jan 2018202
Dec 2017194
Nov 2017202
Oct 2017220
Sept 2017220
Aug 2017217
Jul 2017199
Jun 2017190
May 2017190
Mar 2017164
Feb 2017153
Jan 2017148
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016158
Oct 2016160
Sept 2016160
Aug 2016160
Jul 2016160
Jun 2016155
May 2016146
Apr 2016145
Mar 2016145
Feb 2016140
Jan 2016139
Dec 2015143
Nov 2015159
Oct 2015174
Aug 2015173
Jul 2015170
Jun 2015168
May 2015160
Apr 2015160
Mar 2015157
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014155
Nov 2014161
Oct 2014168
Sept 2014170
Aug 2014170
Jul 2014171
Jun 2014175
May 2014163
Apr 2014160
Mar 2014147
Feb 2014151
Jan 2014150
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013150
Oct 2013163
Sept 2013165
Aug 2013161
Jul 2013160
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
Oct 2011183
Sept 2011135
Aug 2011140
Jul 2011133
Jun 2011131
May 2011124
Apr 2011125
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011131
Jan 2011122
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010104
Oct 2010120
Sept 2010133
Aug 2010144
Jul 2010148
Jun 2010138
May 2010135
Apr 2010130
Mar 2010136
Feb 2010140
Jan 2010139
Dec 2009132
Nov 2009132
Oct 2009163
Sept 2009182
Aug 2009186
Jul 2009171
Jun 2009161
May 2009149
Apr 2009141
Mar 2009143
Feb 2009147
Jan 2009139
Dec 2008118
Nov 2008116
Oct 2008141
Sept 2008169
Aug 2008166
Jul 2008171
Jun 2008147
May 2008132
Apr 2008123
Mar 2008124
Feb 2008126
Jan 2008118
Dec 2007111
Nov 2007115
Oct 2007112
Sept 2007113
Aug 2007118
Jul 2007113
Jun 2007103
May 2007103
Apr 2007104
Mar 2007107
Feb 2007107
Jan 200795.5

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-897-65-retail-kg.