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Sorghum in Sirakorola

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

132–241

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

130–240

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 241 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 130 and 240 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Sirakorola: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 132 and 241 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 130 and 240 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 177–225 200 173–279 265 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 162–238 196 144–311 268 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 132–241 172 93.6–318 221 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 118–247 162 94.2–350 195 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 130–240 165 93.8–255 211 –
Price history (211 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026192
May 2026170
Apr 2026180
Mar 2026180
Feb 2026180
Jan 2026179
Dec 2025159
Oct 2025160
Sept 2025170
Aug 2025188
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025228
Mar 2025200
Feb 2025231
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024196
Nov 2024219
Oct 2024315
Sept 2024313
Aug 2024321
Jul 2024316
Jun 2024275
May 2024235
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024216
Nov 2023208
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023256
Aug 2023269
Jul 2023255
Jun 2023228
May 2023225
Apr 2023202
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022190
Nov 2022208
Oct 2022308
Sept 2022374
Aug 2022373
Jul 2022373
Jun 2022355
May 2022314
Apr 2022324
Mar 2022266
Feb 2022235
Jan 2022208
Dec 2021195
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021198
Sept 2021176
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021164
May 2021152
Apr 2021152
Mar 2021158
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021145
Dec 2020127
Nov 2020168
Oct 2020183
Sept 2020182
Aug 2020169
Jul 2020156
Jun 2020134
May 2020139
Apr 2020131
Mar 2020128
Feb 2020122
Jan 2020116
Dec 2019111
Nov 2019120
Sept 2019130
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019140
May 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019150
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018180
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018218
Jul 2018214
Jun 2018208
May 2018195
Apr 2018181
Mar 2018184
Feb 2018177
Jan 2018161
Dec 2017145
Nov 2017145
Oct 2017205
Sept 2017218
Aug 2017192
Jul 2017173
Jun 2017169
May 2017155
Apr 2017141
Mar 2017138
Feb 2017134
Jan 2017126
Dec 2016121
Nov 2016135
Oct 2016152
Sept 2016151
Aug 2016157
Jul 2016155
Jun 2016148
May 2016140
Apr 2016135
Mar 2016135
Feb 2016133
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015120
Nov 2015128
Oct 2015177
Aug 2015183
Jul 2015180
Jun 2015169
May 2015150
Apr 2015135
Mar 2015135
Feb 2015134
Jan 2015128
Dec 2014125
Nov 2014128
Oct 2014157
Sept 2014160
Aug 2014165
Jul 2014165
Jun 2014162
May 2014155
Apr 2014150
Mar 2014150
Feb 2014158
Jan 2014155
Dec 2013125
Nov 2013140
Oct 2013179
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013176
Jul 2013180
Sept 2012260
Aug 2012261
Jul 2012260
Jun 2012253
Oct 2011152
Sept 2011134
Aug 2011135
Jul 2011143
Jun 2011127
May 2011115
Apr 2011115
Mar 2011119
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011110
Dec 2010100
Nov 201098.8
Oct 2010145
Sept 2010152
Aug 2010164
Jul 2010170
Jun 2010156
May 2010146
Apr 2010145
Mar 2010147
Feb 2010150
Jan 2010148
Dec 2009117
Nov 2009128
Oct 2009160
Sept 2009198
Aug 2009182
Jul 2009176
Jun 2009155
May 2009141
Apr 2009126
Mar 2009134
Feb 2009136
Jan 2009112
Dec 200889.5
Nov 200890.2
Oct 2008119
Sept 2008164
Aug 2008139
Jul 2008151
Jun 2008140
May 2008116
Apr 2008108
Mar 2008113
Feb 2008118
Jan 2008106
Dec 200788
Nov 200792.2
Oct 2007130
Sept 2007131
Aug 2007129
Jul 2007133
Jun 2007114
May 2007102
Apr 200799.5
Mar 200798
Feb 2007107
Jan 200796.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-905-65-retail-kg.