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Millet in Sirakorola

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

147–339

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

141–370

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

18%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 53% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 141 and 370 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Sirakorola: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 53% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 141 and 370 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 804); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 206–313 261 197–330 278 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 192–330 256 178–441 284 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 147–339 198 141–532 234 18%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 126–378 182 89.7–804 207 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 141–370 186 105–571 224 –
Price history (211 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026275
Jul 2026221
Jun 2026197
May 2026180
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026189
Feb 2026189
Jan 2026191
Dec 2025181
Oct 2025190
Sept 2025188
Aug 2025209
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025225
May 2025240
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025220
Feb 2025238
Jan 2025220
Dec 2024196
Nov 2024231
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024313
Aug 2024321
Jul 2024316
Jun 2024275
May 2024235
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024216
Nov 2023208
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023256
Aug 2023269
Jul 2023255
Jun 2023226
May 2023225
Apr 2023224
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022190
Nov 2022208
Oct 2022308
Sept 2022374
Aug 2022373
Jul 2022373
Jun 2022355
May 2022325
Apr 2022330
Mar 2022266
Feb 2022235
Jan 2022208
Dec 2021201
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021198
Sept 2021176
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021175
May 2021157
Apr 2021152
Mar 2021158
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021151
Dec 2020131
Nov 2020179
Oct 2020187
Sept 2020188
Aug 2020173
Jul 2020160
Jun 2020143
May 2020147
Apr 2020140
Mar 2020137
Feb 2020135
Jan 2020115
Dec 2019111
Nov 2019120
Sept 2019130
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019225
Jun 2019140
May 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019150
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018180
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018215
Jul 2018213
Jun 2018208
May 2018193
Apr 2018181
Mar 2018181
Feb 2018173
Jan 2018159
Dec 2017143
Nov 2017150
Oct 2017205
Sept 2017218
Aug 2017192
Jul 2017172
Jun 2017168
May 2017153
Apr 2017141
Mar 2017136
Feb 2017134
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016120
Nov 2016135
Oct 2016152
Sept 2016149
Aug 2016157
Jul 2016156
Jun 2016144
May 2016138
Apr 2016135
Mar 2016135
Feb 2016133
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015120
Nov 2015128
Oct 2015174
Aug 2015180
Jul 2015178
Jun 2015166
May 2015145
Apr 2015140
Mar 2015138
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015141
Dec 2014130
Nov 2014133
Oct 2014162
Sept 2014168
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014165
May 2014155
Apr 2014150
Mar 2014150
Feb 2014151
Jan 2014150
Dec 2013130
Nov 2013152
Oct 2013178
Sept 2013180
Aug 2013183
Jul 2013182
Sept 2012260
Aug 2012261
Jul 2012260
Jun 2012253
Oct 2011125
Sept 2011115
Aug 2011128
Jul 2011140
Jun 2011123
May 2011120
Apr 2011115
Mar 2011118
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011113
Dec 2010100
Nov 2010100
Oct 2010145
Sept 2010154
Aug 2010168
Jul 2010173
Jun 2010151
May 2010145
Apr 2010145
Mar 2010147
Feb 2010150
Jan 2010134
Dec 2009113
Nov 2009117
Oct 2009168
Sept 2009197
Aug 2009181
Jul 2009176
Jun 2009145
May 2009132
Apr 2009125
Mar 2009128
Feb 2009132
Jan 2009105
Dec 200886.8
Nov 200886
Oct 2008123
Sept 2008162
Aug 2008139
Jul 2008150
Jun 2008137
May 2008106
Apr 2008100
Mar 2008109
Feb 2008114
Jan 2008103
Dec 200785
Nov 200786
Oct 2007130
Sept 2007129
Aug 2007126
Jul 2007130
Jun 2007107
May 200792.2
Apr 200790
Mar 200790
Feb 2007100
Jan 200788.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-905-73-retail-kg.