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Rice (imported) in Zinder Commune

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

445–540

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

426–558

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 445 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 426 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Zinder Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 445 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 426 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 474–518 499 455–551 617 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 459–523 498 431–567 606 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 445–540 495 427–646 632 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 428–546 493 392–681 619 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 426–558 492 396–694 623 –
Price history (301 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026490
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026463
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025475
Oct 2025470
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025513
May 2025550
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025613
Feb 2025650
Jan 2025819
Dec 2024660
Nov 2024663
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024700
Aug 2024690
Jul 2024800
Jun 2024760
May 2024750
Apr 2024675
Mar 2024650
Feb 2024663
Jan 2024650
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023750
Oct 2023633
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022488
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022481
Jun 2022475
May 2022475
Apr 2022475
Mar 2022475
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Apr 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019429
Jul 2019427
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018425
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016450
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Apr 2016500
Mar 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015450
Apr 2015450
Mar 2015450
Feb 2015450
Jan 2015450
Dec 2014450
Nov 2014450
Sept 2014450
Aug 2014450
Jul 2014450
Jun 2014450
May 2014450
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Feb 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
Apr 2012500
Mar 2012500
Feb 2012500
Jan 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011500
Sept 2011500
Aug 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011483
Feb 2011450
Jan 2011450
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010450
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010450
Jul 2010450
Jun 2010450
May 2010450
Apr 2010450
Mar 2010450
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010450
Dec 2009450
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009450
Aug 2009463
Jul 2009467
Jun 2009475
May 2009475
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009465
Dec 2008481
Nov 2008458
Oct 2008454
Sept 2008456
Aug 2008456
Jul 2008438
Jun 2008392
May 2008397
Apr 2008390
Mar 2008403
Feb 2008395
Jan 2008365
Dec 2007364
Nov 2007360
Oct 2007359
Sept 2007356
Aug 2007344
Jul 2007354
Jun 2007342
May 2007348
Apr 2007355
Mar 2007352
Feb 2007353
Jan 2007352
Dec 2006350
Nov 2006350
Oct 2006350
Sept 2006350
Aug 2006350
Jul 2006338
Jun 2006340
May 2006350
Apr 2006350
Mar 2006350
Feb 2006350
Jan 2006350
Dec 2005350
Nov 2005350
Oct 2005350
Sept 2005365
Aug 2005392
Jul 2005338
Jun 2005319
May 2005325
Apr 2005325
Mar 2005325
Feb 2005325
Jan 2005319
Dec 2004325
Nov 2004325
Oct 2004319
Sept 2004325
Aug 2004319
Jul 2004325
Jun 2004300
May 2004300
Apr 2004300
Mar 2004300
Feb 2004300
Jan 2004300
Dec 2003292
Nov 2003300
Oct 2003294
Sept 2003300
Aug 2003300
Jul 2003300
Jun 2003300
May 2003300
Apr 2003300
Mar 2003300
Feb 2003300
Jan 2003300
Dec 2002300
Nov 2002300
Oct 2002300
Sept 2002300
Aug 2002300
Jul 2002300
Jun 2002300
May 2002300
Apr 2002288
Mar 2002300
Feb 2002300
Jan 2002300
Dec 2001300
Nov 2001300
Oct 2001300
Sept 2001300
Aug 2001300
Jul 2001288
Jun 2001300
May 2001296
Apr 2001300
Mar 2001300
Feb 2001313
Jan 2001300
Dec 2000300
Nov 2000300
Oct 2000300
Sept 2000300
Aug 2000300
Jul 2000300
Jun 2000300
May 2000300
Apr 2000300
Mar 2000300
Feb 2000325
Jan 2000300

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-1463-64-retail-kg.