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Maize in Abala

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 51 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

142–229

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

132–245

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 142 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Abala: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 142 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 164–221 192 149–247 306 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 152–227 181 132–239 296 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 142–229 172 120–261 279 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 136–248 181 111–296 294 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 132–245 180 101–324 293 –
Price history (167 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026208
Aug 2026202
Jul 2026204
Jun 2026207
May 2026200
Apr 2026192
Mar 2026188
Feb 2026169
Jan 2026195
Dec 2025200
Nov 2025200
Oct 2025213
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025270
Jun 2025286
May 2025304
Apr 2025341
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025325
Jan 2025323
Dec 2024312
Nov 2024284
Oct 2024315
Sept 2024354
Aug 2024397
Jul 2024439
Jun 2024366
May 2024368
Apr 2024338
Mar 2024341
Feb 2024306
Jan 2024296
Dec 2023300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Feb 2023369
Jan 2023294
Dec 2022331
Nov 2022328
Oct 2022371
Sept 2022380
Aug 2022385
Jul 2022357
Jun 2022394
Apr 2022326
Mar 2022326
Feb 2022321
Jan 2022286
Dec 2021265
Nov 2021306
Oct 2021310
Sept 2021306
Aug 2021288
Jul 2021299
Jun 2021253
May 2021253
Apr 2021253
Mar 2021240
Feb 2021245
Jan 2021224
Dec 2020271
Nov 2020215
Oct 2020204
Sept 2020224
Aug 2020245
Jul 2020233
Jun 2020198
May 2020198
Mar 2020199
Feb 2020239
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019178
Nov 2019188
Oct 2019172
Sept 2019192
Aug 2019188
Jul 2019187
Jun 2019185
May 2019185
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Jan 2019263
Dec 2018207
Nov 2018182
Aug 2018183
Jul 2018222
Jun 2018200
May 2018245
Apr 2018213
Feb 2018202
Jan 2018231
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017182
Aug 2017248
Jul 2017254
May 2017266
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017206
Jan 2017168
Nov 2016168
Oct 2016212
Sept 2016231
Aug 2016229
Jul 2016229
Jun 2016210
May 2016200
Apr 2016221
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015217
Oct 2015243
Sept 2015217
Aug 2015222
Jul 2015217
Jun 2015218
May 2015239
Apr 2015216
Mar 2015207
Feb 2015214
Jan 2015208
Nov 2014213
Oct 2014201
Sept 2014224
May 2014253
Apr 2014256
Mar 2014260
Feb 2014220
Jan 2014245
Aug 2013313
Jul 2013222
May 2013265
Mar 2013272
Jan 2013224
Oct 2012229
Sept 2012294
Aug 2012293
Jul 2012235
May 2012216
Dec 2011224
Nov 2011209
Oct 2011213
Sept 2011214
Jul 2011240
Jun 2011200
May 2011204
Apr 2011200
Feb 2011213
Dec 2010200
Nov 2010173
Sept 2010236
Aug 2010241
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010220
May 2010200
Apr 2010238
Feb 2010190
Jan 2010195
Dec 2009200
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009220
Sept 2009243
Aug 2009248
Jul 2009251
May 2009258
Apr 2009253

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-543-51-retail-kg.