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Millet in Abala

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 15% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 11% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

179–314

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

195–340

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 314 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Abala: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 314 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 246–339 298 226–357 374 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 209–318 253 185–324 307 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 179–314 237 158–324 276 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 194–322 249 165–360 297 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 195–340 256 158–371 320 –
Price history (169 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026273
Aug 2026313
Jul 2026356
Jun 2026327
May 2026290
Apr 2026292
Mar 2026283
Feb 2026253
Jan 2026270
Dec 2025275
Nov 2025280
Oct 2025280
Sept 2025295
Aug 2025330
Jul 2025360
Jun 2025357
May 2025340
Apr 2025359
Mar 2025340
Feb 2025330
Jan 2025305
Dec 2024271
Nov 2024280
Oct 2024285
Sept 2024392
Aug 2024401
Jul 2024468
Jun 2024378
May 2024367
Apr 2024321
Mar 2024310
Feb 2024310
Jan 2024289
Dec 2023290
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023400
Feb 2023307
Jan 2023271
Dec 2022291
Nov 2022323
Oct 2022352
Sept 2022413
Aug 2022439
Jul 2022455
Jun 2022465
Apr 2022382
Mar 2022433
Feb 2022441
Jan 2022349
Dec 2021317
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021279
Sept 2021310
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021300
Jun 2021300
May 2021300
Apr 2021265
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021226
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020235
Nov 2020178
Oct 2020193
Sept 2020263
Aug 2020281
Jul 2020264
Jun 2020249
May 2020238
Mar 2020223
Feb 2020243
Jan 2020203
Dec 2019142
Nov 2019137
Oct 2019171
Sept 2019196
Aug 2019205
Jul 2019217
Jun 2019228
May 2019221
Apr 2019260
Mar 2019260
Jan 2019210
Dec 2018203
Nov 2018182
Oct 2018248
Aug 2018302
Jul 2018316
Jun 2018316
May 2018306
Apr 2018257
Feb 2018254
Jan 2018254
Oct 2017232
Sept 2017214
Aug 2017359
Jul 2017309
May 2017280
Apr 2017294
Mar 2017268
Feb 2017255
Jan 2017210
Nov 2016162
Oct 2016169
Sept 2016310
Aug 2016279
Jul 2016279
Jun 2016245
May 2016231
Mar 2016231
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015183
Oct 2015223
Sept 2015228
Aug 2015229
Jul 2015228
Jun 2015228
May 2015221
Apr 2015204
Mar 2015202
Feb 2015204
Jan 2015184
Nov 2014212
Oct 2014208
Sept 2014235
May 2014250
Apr 2014260
Mar 2014242
Feb 2014240
Jan 2014224
Aug 2013275
Jul 2013291
May 2013262
Mar 2013260
Jan 2013218
Oct 2012190
Sept 2012307
Aug 2012315
Jul 2012338
May 2012276
Dec 2011210
Nov 2011179
Oct 2011156
Sept 2011168
Jul 2011164
Jun 2011185
May 2011163
Apr 2011165
Feb 2011180
Dec 2010153
Nov 2010173
Sept 2010283
Aug 2010283
Jul 2010277
Jun 2010261
May 2010224
Apr 2010243
Feb 2010214
Jan 2010224
Dec 2009218
Nov 2009182
Oct 2009156
Sept 2009226
Aug 2009235
Jul 2009185
May 2009171
Apr 2009184

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-543-73-retail-kg.