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Maize in Abalak

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Far above the national price. In August 2026 the price here was 51% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 17% above). That is far above its usual distance: prices that separate from the rest of the country can point to a cut-off area, but also to a data error. How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

224–315

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

215–343

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 224 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 215 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Abalak: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 224 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 215 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 268–325 294 249–346 386 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 239–319 276 219–326 353 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 224–315 265 191–344 334 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 219–324 263 184–391 331 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 215–343 270 193–453 350 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026295
Aug 2026302
Jul 2026327
Jun 2026290
May 2026300
Apr 2026295
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026301
Jan 2026294
Dec 2025289
Nov 2025272
Oct 2025284
Sept 2025299
Aug 2025310
Jun 2025330
Apr 2025335
Mar 2025335
Feb 2025323
Jan 2025350
Dec 2024349
Nov 2024313
Oct 2024361
Sept 2024487
Aug 2024458
Jul 2024450
Jun 2024417
May 2024392
Apr 2024361
Mar 2024350
Feb 2024333
Jan 2024375
Dec 2023333
Nov 2023329
Oct 2023333
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023408
Jul 2023330
Jun 2023361
May 2023333
Apr 2023333
Feb 2023302
Jan 2023333
Dec 2022333
Oct 2022310
Sept 2022359
Aug 2022373
Jun 2022413
Apr 2022396
Mar 2022354
Feb 2022354
Jan 2022318
Dec 2021281
Nov 2021310
Oct 2021386
Sept 2021333
Aug 2021333
Jul 2021332
Jun 2021333
May 2021333
Apr 2021313
Feb 2021267
Jan 2021275
Dec 2020251
Nov 2020307
Oct 2020306
Sept 2020308
Aug 2020309
Jul 2020294
Jun 2020269
May 2020269
Apr 2020265
Mar 2020266
Feb 2020173
Jan 2020243
Dec 2019248
Nov 2019207
Oct 2019247
Sept 2019248
Aug 2019246
Jul 2019177
Jun 2019231
May 2019229
Mar 2019216
Feb 2019245
Jan 2019242
Dec 2018215
Nov 2018238
Oct 2018248
Sept 2018271
Aug 2018247
Jul 2018318
Jun 2018307
May 2018293
Apr 2018285
Mar 2018280
Feb 2018276
Jan 2018262
Dec 2017261
Nov 2017264
Oct 2017270
Sept 2017292
Aug 2017292
Jul 2017300
Jun 2017284
May 2017287
Apr 2017286
Mar 2017278
Feb 2017298
Jan 2017261
Nov 2016283
Oct 2016239
Sept 2016283
Aug 2016283
Jul 2016283
Jun 2016240
Feb 2016222
Jan 2016222
Oct 2015202
Sept 2015202
Aug 2015202
Jul 2015201
Jun 2015201
May 2015202
Apr 2015202
Mar 2015202
Feb 2015202
Jan 2015202
Nov 2014242
Sept 2014242
Aug 2014242
Jul 2014242
Jun 2014242
May 2014252
Apr 2014242
Mar 2014255
Feb 2014254
Jan 2014262
Dec 2013262
Nov 2013272
Oct 2013265
Sept 2013265
Aug 2013281
Jul 2013286
Jun 2013304
May 2013288
Apr 2013288
Mar 2013271
Jan 2013240
Dec 2012250
Nov 2012262
Oct 2012242
Sept 2012285
Aug 2012303
Jul 2012288
May 2012270
Apr 2012255
Dec 2011271
Nov 2011250
Oct 2011245
Sept 2011260
Jul 2011284
Jun 2011261
May 2011257
Apr 2011232
Mar 2011250
Feb 2011247
Jan 2011248
Dec 2010187
Nov 2010189
Oct 2010202
Sept 2010241
Aug 2010232
Jul 2010247
Jun 2010242
May 2010258
Apr 2010249
Mar 2010258
Feb 2010263
Jan 2010263
Nov 2009254
Oct 2009259
Sept 2009277
Aug 2009285
Jul 2009266
Jun 2009262
May 2009258
Apr 2009259
Mar 2009263
Feb 2009302
Jan 2009288
Dec 2008262
Nov 2008260
Oct 2008260
Sept 2008311
Aug 2008319
Jul 2008276
Jun 2008262
May 2008241
Apr 2008235
Mar 2008242
Feb 2008234
Jan 2008221

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-544-51-retail-kg.