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Rice (imported) in Abalak

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 10% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 2% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

490–579

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

475–590

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 490 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 475 and 590 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Abalak: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 490 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 475 and 590 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 508–568 545 494–594 634 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 501–571 542 472–612 624 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 490–579 537 473–667 635 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 484–587 537 453–673 616 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 475–590 533 444–724 615 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026550
Aug 2026550
Jul 2026525
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026550
Dec 2025525
Nov 2025550
Oct 2025525
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jun 2025550
Apr 2025700
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024730
Nov 2024750
Oct 2024788
Sept 2024950
Aug 2024950
Jul 2024960
Jun 2024740
May 2024700
Apr 2024620
Mar 2024660
Feb 2024650
Jan 2024600
Dec 2023650
Nov 2023650
Oct 2023650
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022600
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jun 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Apr 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019500
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Mar 2019488
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018550
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018500
May 2018500
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017500
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Nov 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011500
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010467
Nov 2010450
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010450
Jul 2010450
Jun 2010450
May 2010450
Apr 2010450
Mar 2010450
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010450
Dec 2009450
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009450
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009450
Dec 2008450
Nov 2008450
Oct 2008450
Sept 2008450
Aug 2008450
Jul 2008450
Jun 2008420
May 2008394
Apr 2008400
Mar 2008400
Feb 2008400
Jan 2008350

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-544-64-retail-kg.