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Millet in Abalak

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 18% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 18% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

219–319

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

212–337

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 219 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 212 and 337 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Abalak: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 219 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 212 and 337 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 267–334 299 240–337 395 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 215–312 260 183–318 305 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 219–319 258 199–342 320 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 221–326 262 207–327 322 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 212–337 263 178–377 328 –
Price history (177 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026322
Jul 2026345
Jun 2026309
May 2026290
Apr 2026285
Mar 2026297
Feb 2026294
Jan 2026283
Dec 2025282
Nov 2025298
Oct 2025265
Sept 2025298
Jul 2025320
Jun 2025349
Apr 2025369
Mar 2025364
Feb 2025323
Jan 2025326
Dec 2024320
Nov 2024313
Oct 2024325
Sept 2024434
Aug 2024466
Jul 2024491
Jun 2024423
May 2024395
Apr 2024376
Mar 2024365
Feb 2024365
Jan 2024333
Dec 2023329
Nov 2023329
Oct 2023322
Sept 2023397
Aug 2023406
Jul 2023340
Jun 2023358
May 2023351
Apr 2023348
Feb 2023341
Jan 2023331
Dec 2022324
Nov 2022385
Oct 2022287
Jun 2022417
Apr 2022370
Mar 2022371
Feb 2022371
Jan 2022345
Dec 2021329
Nov 2021290
Oct 2021305
Jul 2021336
Jun 2021336
May 2021335
Apr 2021333
Feb 2021309
Jan 2021292
Dec 2020247
Nov 2020238
Sept 2020337
Aug 2020364
Jul 2020323
Jun 2020292
May 2020290
Apr 2020281
Mar 2020271
Feb 2020266
Jan 2020240
Dec 2019226
Nov 2019206
Oct 2019222
Aug 2019227
Jul 2019190
Jun 2019239
May 2019251
Mar 2019227
Feb 2019248
Jan 2019224
Dec 2018224
Nov 2018223
Aug 2018310
Jul 2018357
Jun 2018349
May 2018349
Apr 2018302
Mar 2018293
Feb 2018288
Jan 2018286
Dec 2017280
Nov 2017280
Sept 2017298
Aug 2017413
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017327
May 2017320
Apr 2017305
Mar 2017267
Feb 2017286
Jan 2017204
Oct 2016191
Sept 2016319
Aug 2016298
Jul 2016250
Jun 2016250
Mar 2016192
Feb 2016212
Jan 2016192
Aug 2015218
Jul 2015231
Jun 2015205
May 2015212
Apr 2015192
Mar 2015192
Feb 2015192
Jan 2015182
Nov 2014192
Aug 2014261
Jul 2014273
Jun 2014271
May 2014266
Apr 2014277
Mar 2014264
Feb 2014257
Jan 2014257
Dec 2013277
Sept 2013295
Aug 2013332
Jul 2013336
Jun 2013306
May 2013291
Apr 2013291
Mar 2013272
Jan 2013257
Dec 2012267
Sept 2012289
Aug 2012372
Jul 2012369
May 2012306
Apr 2012283
Dec 2011283
Nov 2011243
Jul 2011204
Jun 2011213
May 2011219
Apr 2011199
Mar 2011170
Feb 2011196
Jan 2011196
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010184
Sept 2010243
Aug 2010262
Jul 2010271
May 2010269
Apr 2010250
Mar 2010237
Feb 2010233
Jan 2010233
Aug 2009283
Jul 2009245
Jun 2009228
May 2009233
Apr 2009224
Mar 2009222
Feb 2009217
Jan 2009212
Dec 2008201
Nov 2008200
Aug 2008234
Jul 2008233
Jun 2008196
May 2008191
Apr 2008183
Mar 2008195
Feb 2008184
Jan 2008169

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-544-73-retail-kg.