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Maize in Aderbissinat

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 15% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 17% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

174–260

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

161–278

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 161 and 278 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Aderbissinat: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 161 and 278 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 202–247 221 193–270 338 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 188–253 214 169–288 318 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 174–260 206 163–290 304 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 167–275 210 142–370 305 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 161–278 207 130–399 312 –
Price history (187 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026240
Aug 2026230
Jul 2026240
Jun 2026220
May 2026220
Apr 2026220
Mar 2026213
Feb 2026215
Jan 2026210
Dec 2025210
Nov 2025235
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025275
Aug 2025293
Jul 2025357
Jun 2025347
May 2025314
Apr 2025313
Mar 2025327
Feb 2025353
Jan 2025360
Dec 2024397
Nov 2024374
Oct 2024401
Sept 2024416
Aug 2024487
Jul 2024427
Jun 2024388
May 2024364
Apr 2024364
Mar 2024364
Feb 2024363
Jan 2024373
Dec 2023327
Nov 2023336
Oct 2023354
Sept 2023439
Oct 2022317
Sept 2022310
Aug 2022326
Jul 2022329
Jun 2022310
May 2022329
Apr 2022324
Mar 2022315
Jan 2022310
Dec 2021310
Nov 2021310
Oct 2021317
Sept 2021310
Aug 2021310
Jul 2021301
Jun 2021291
May 2021291
Apr 2021291
Feb 2021271
Jan 2021283
Dec 2020280
Nov 2020271
Oct 2020291
Sept 2020291
Aug 2020259
Jul 2020233
Jun 2020233
May 2020233
Apr 2020233
Mar 2020258
Feb 2020242
Jan 2020286
Dec 2019268
Nov 2019208
Oct 2019208
Sept 2019220
Aug 2019217
Jul 2019208
Jun 2019208
May 2019208
Feb 2019229
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018272
Aug 2018271
Jul 2018271
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017292
Oct 2017292
Sept 2017318
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017333
Jun 2017341
May 2017341
Apr 2017295
Mar 2017280
Feb 2017304
Jan 2017283
Nov 2016261
Oct 2016279
Sept 2016304
Aug 2016304
Jun 2016272
May 2016261
Feb 2016227
Jan 2016227
Dec 2015273
Oct 2015275
Sept 2015274
Aug 2015273
Jul 2015272
Jun 2015272
May 2015269
Apr 2015224
Mar 2015242
Feb 2015264
Jan 2015235
Nov 2014263
Oct 2014258
Sept 2014263
Aug 2014274
Jul 2014271
Jun 2014267
May 2014229
Apr 2014246
Mar 2014237
Feb 2014236
Jan 2014255
Dec 2013263
Nov 2013261
Jul 2013341
Jun 2013335
May 2013356
Apr 2013354
Mar 2013313
Jan 2013288
Dec 2012293
Nov 2012293
Oct 2012293
Sept 2012271
Aug 2012277
Jul 2012293
May 2012270
Apr 2012251
Dec 2011239
Nov 2011267
Oct 2011261
Sept 2011246
Jul 2011240
Jun 2011259
May 2011246
Apr 2011242
Mar 2011236
Jan 2011215
Dec 2010187
Oct 2010183
Sept 2010202
Jul 2010243
Jun 2010240
May 2010220
Apr 2010214
Mar 2010236
Feb 2010264
Jan 2010271
Dec 2009272
Nov 2009266
Oct 2009260
Sept 2009282
Aug 2009278
Jul 2009252
Jun 2009237
May 2009237
Apr 2009228
Mar 2009228
Feb 2009226
Jan 2009224
Nov 2008227
Oct 2008259
Sept 2008288
May 2008280
Apr 2008218
Feb 2008189

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-545-51-retail-kg.