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Sorghum in Aderbissinat

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 10% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

173–261

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

170–281

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 173 and 261 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 170 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Aderbissinat: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 173 and 261 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 170 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 210–272 244 192–292 310 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 190–265 219 171–298 268 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 173–261 204 156–333 247 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 168–272 207 137–377 258 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 170–281 213 146–429 265 –
Price history (206 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026260
Aug 2026260
Jul 2026245
Jun 2026240
May 2026240
Apr 2026240
Mar 2026233
Feb 2026230
Jan 2026216
Dec 2025220
Nov 2025200
Oct 2025220
Sept 2025235
Aug 2025275
Jul 2025278
Jun 2025300
May 2025292
Apr 2025293
Mar 2025293
Feb 2025314
Jan 2025305
Dec 2024285
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024380
Sept 2024440
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024380
May 2024340
Apr 2024285
Mar 2024280
Feb 2024275
Jan 2024283
Dec 2023295
Nov 2023268
Oct 2023269
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023293
Jul 2023258
Jun 2023258
May 2023245
Apr 2023238
Mar 2023218
Feb 2023225
Jan 2023238
Dec 2022231
Nov 2022238
Oct 2022238
Sept 2022298
Aug 2022308
Jul 2022317
Jun 2022288
May 2022311
Apr 2022332
Mar 2022298
Jan 2022278
Dec 2021278
Nov 2021258
Oct 2021320
Sept 2021268
Aug 2021303
Jul 2021253
Jun 2021278
May 2021278
Apr 2021258
Feb 2021273
Jan 2021243
Dec 2020238
Nov 2020198
Oct 2020218
Sept 2020292
Aug 2020304
Jul 2020258
Jun 2020218
May 2020234
Apr 2020228
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020198
Jan 2020202
Dec 2019187
Nov 2019187
Oct 2019187
Sept 2019177
Aug 2019192
Jul 2019167
Jun 2019167
May 2019167
Feb 2019167
Jan 2019167
Dec 2018167
Nov 2018167
Oct 2018167
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018271
Jul 2018271
Jun 2018271
May 2018271
Apr 2018260
Mar 2018220
Feb 2018229
Jan 2018239
Dec 2017239
Nov 2017210
Oct 2017210
Sept 2017328
Aug 2017295
Jul 2017320
Jun 2017328
May 2017317
Apr 2017284
Mar 2017268
Feb 2017262
Jan 2017240
Nov 2016218
Oct 2016262
Sept 2016262
Aug 2016240
Jun 2016219
May 2016218
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Oct 2015194
Sept 2015190
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015180
Jun 2015181
May 2015166
Apr 2015167
Mar 2015164
Feb 2015169
Jan 2015162
Nov 2014210
Oct 2014216
Sept 2014235
Aug 2014233
Jul 2014249
Jun 2014244
May 2014220
Apr 2014232
Mar 2014236
Feb 2014236
Jan 2014233
Dec 2013231
Nov 2013253
Jul 2013309
Jun 2013305
May 2013275
Apr 2013259
Mar 2013243
Jan 2013219
Dec 2012250
Nov 2012273
Oct 2012218
Sept 2012320
Aug 2012376
Jul 2012377
May 2012311
Apr 2012288
Dec 2011235
Nov 2011206
Oct 2011174
Sept 2011156
Jul 2011163
Jun 2011185
May 2011171
Apr 2011139
Mar 2011135
Jan 2011128
Dec 2010130
Nov 2010128
Oct 2010180
Sept 2010209
Aug 2010222
Jul 2010228
Jun 2010226
May 2010220
Apr 2010198
Mar 2010192
Feb 2010206
Jan 2010212
Dec 2009209
Nov 2009208
Oct 2009192
Sept 2009209
Aug 2009249
Jul 2009207
Jun 2009183
May 2009177
Apr 2009176
Mar 2009174
Feb 2009170
Jan 2009164
Dec 2008141
Nov 2008150
Oct 2008143
Sept 2008159
Aug 2008171
Jul 2008168
Jun 2008142
May 2008141
Apr 2008135
Mar 2008135
Feb 2008137
Jan 2008108

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-545-65-retail-kg.