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Millet in Aderbissinat

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 9% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 7% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

193–296

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

195–317

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 193 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 317 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Aderbissinat: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 193 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 317 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 240–307 271 219–320 334 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 210–299 240 180–314 288 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 193–296 231 179–325 270 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 194–307 236 165–358 288 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 195–317 244 164–395 298 –
Price history (207 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026272
Aug 2026297
Jul 2026277
Jun 2026262
May 2026257
Apr 2026245
Mar 2026244
Feb 2026237
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025237
Nov 2025237
Oct 2025241
Sept 2025262
Aug 2025298
Jul 2025332
Jun 2025360
May 2025357
Apr 2025357
Mar 2025368
Feb 2025346
Jan 2025349
Dec 2024310
Nov 2024309
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024404
Aug 2024482
Jul 2024467
Jun 2024392
May 2024367
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024294
Feb 2024295
Jan 2024300
Dec 2023308
Nov 2023280
Oct 2023270
Sept 2023308
Aug 2023317
Jul 2023291
Jun 2023288
May 2023276
Apr 2023288
Mar 2023269
Feb 2023253
Jan 2023263
Dec 2022269
Nov 2022263
Oct 2022250
Sept 2022334
Aug 2022329
Jul 2022346
Jun 2022304
May 2022332
Apr 2022324
Mar 2022314
Jan 2022304
Dec 2021294
Nov 2021275
Oct 2021315
Sept 2021304
Aug 2021329
Jul 2021290
Jun 2021290
May 2021294
Apr 2021287
Feb 2021288
Jan 2021255
Dec 2020253
Nov 2020218
Oct 2020235
Sept 2020323
Aug 2020372
Jul 2020352
Jun 2020275
May 2020259
Apr 2020260
Mar 2020248
Feb 2020316
Jan 2020280
Dec 2019204
Nov 2019204
Oct 2019204
Sept 2019197
Aug 2019214
Jul 2019194
Jun 2019194
May 2019199
Feb 2019184
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018204
Nov 2018184
Oct 2018204
Sept 2018265
Aug 2018286
Jul 2018286
Jun 2018286
May 2018286
Apr 2018286
Mar 2018245
Feb 2018245
Jan 2018245
Dec 2017245
Nov 2017245
Oct 2017245
Sept 2017345
Aug 2017273
Jul 2017327
Jun 2017315
May 2017301
Apr 2017296
Mar 2017271
Feb 2017259
Jan 2017222
Nov 2016185
Oct 2016241
Sept 2016241
Aug 2016222
Jun 2016222
May 2016241
Apr 2016185
Mar 2016167
Feb 2016167
Jan 2016167
Dec 2015167
Oct 2015198
Sept 2015181
Aug 2015183
Jul 2015182
Jun 2015182
May 2015197
Apr 2015180
Mar 2015162
Feb 2015181
Jan 2015166
Nov 2014193
Oct 2014220
Sept 2014238
Aug 2014242
Jul 2014273
Jun 2014252
May 2014232
Apr 2014241
Mar 2014238
Feb 2014238
Jan 2014245
Dec 2013267
Nov 2013275
Jul 2013316
Jun 2013275
May 2013300
Apr 2013297
Mar 2013270
Jan 2013246
Dec 2012277
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012232
Sept 2012318
Aug 2012349
Jul 2012349
May 2012295
Apr 2012274
Dec 2011234
Nov 2011220
Oct 2011176
Sept 2011174
Jul 2011177
Jun 2011180
May 2011180
Apr 2011162
Mar 2011145
Jan 2011147
Dec 2010144
Nov 2010130
Oct 2010147
Sept 2010197
Aug 2010237
Jul 2010241
Jun 2010235
May 2010226
Apr 2010211
Mar 2010197
Feb 2010204
Jan 2010217
Dec 2009179
Nov 2009210
Oct 2009194
Sept 2009220
Aug 2009253
Jul 2009240
Jun 2009201
May 2009205
Apr 2009202
Mar 2009202
Feb 2009200
Jan 2009199
Dec 2008190
Nov 2008168
Oct 2008161
Sept 2008176
Aug 2008188
Jul 2008179
Jun 2008159
May 2008155
Apr 2008157
Mar 2008158
Feb 2008148
Jan 2008122

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-545-73-retail-kg.