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Maize in Agadez Commune

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 52% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 30% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

220–326

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

203–341

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 326 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 203 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Agadez Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 326 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 203 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 259–316 289 238–343 375 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 235–320 268 190–348 360 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 220–326 263 172–363 357 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 210–335 261 157–412 354 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 203–341 260 164–450 346 –
Price history (382 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026308
Aug 2026304
Jul 2026294
Jun 2026280
May 2026260
Apr 2026275
Mar 2026280
Feb 2026285
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025301
Nov 2025276
Oct 2025280
Sept 2025295
Aug 2025340
Jul 2025400
Jun 2025390
May 2025390
Apr 2025352
Mar 2025325
Feb 2025340
Jan 2025320
Dec 2024331
Nov 2024350
Oct 2024388
Sept 2024498
Aug 2024502
Jul 2024478
Jun 2024440
May 2024422
Apr 2024360
Mar 2024390
Feb 2024360
Jan 2024380
Dec 2023360
Nov 2023400
Aug 2023420
Jul 2023340
Jun 2023340
May 2023340
Apr 2023340
Mar 2023340
Feb 2023340
Jan 2023320
Dec 2022340
Nov 2022340
Oct 2022340
Sept 2022333
Aug 2022333
Jul 2022333
Jun 2022333
May 2022333
Apr 2022319
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022316
Jan 2022316
Dec 2021316
Nov 2021316
Oct 2021313
Jun 2021296
May 2021296
Apr 2021294
Mar 2021294
Feb 2021291
Jan 2021261
Dec 2020268
Nov 2020278
Oct 2020302
Sept 2020317
Aug 2020302
Jul 2020289
Jun 2020259
May 2020243
Apr 2020239
Mar 2020239
Feb 2020288
Jan 2020236
Dec 2019237
Nov 2019237
Oct 2019238
Sept 2019237
Aug 2019237
Jun 2019238
May 2019238
Apr 2019242
Mar 2019233
Feb 2019233
Jan 2019258
Dec 2018272
Nov 2018277
Oct 2018279
Sept 2018283
Aug 2018322
Jul 2018277
Jun 2018277
May 2018277
Apr 2018273
Mar 2018279
Feb 2018273
Dec 2017277
Nov 2017277
Oct 2017322
Sept 2017322
Aug 2017322
Jul 2017322
Jun 2017322
May 2017262
Apr 2017241
Mar 2017248
Feb 2017242
Jan 2017250
Nov 2016237
Oct 2016228
Sept 2016228
Aug 2016238
Jul 2016248
Jun 2016245
May 2016245
Mar 2016242
Feb 2016242
Jan 2016242
Dec 2015263
Oct 2015263
Sept 2015250
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015252
Jun 2015252
May 2015250
Apr 2015248
Mar 2015248
Feb 2015240
Jan 2015242
Dec 2014245
Nov 2014258
Oct 2014305
Sept 2014318
Aug 2014318
Jul 2014316
Jun 2014318
May 2014287
Apr 2014287
Mar 2014289
Feb 2014278
Jan 2014257
Dec 2013257
Nov 2013257
Oct 2013273
Sept 2013277
Aug 2013278
Jul 2013276
Jun 2013277
May 2013277
Apr 2013258
Mar 2013313
Feb 2013257
Jan 2013257
Dec 2012258
Nov 2012258
Oct 2012257
Sept 2012258
Aug 2012257
Jul 2012257
May 2012257
Apr 2012255
Mar 2012254
Feb 2012253
Jan 2012252
Dec 2011252
Nov 2011253
Oct 2011252
Sept 2011253
Aug 2011245
Jul 2011233
Jun 2011226
May 2011237
Apr 2011236
Mar 2011235
Feb 2011234
Jan 2011222
Dec 2010215
Nov 2010196
Oct 2010217
Sept 2010239
Aug 2010246
Jul 2010239
Jun 2010238
May 2010238
Apr 2010223
Mar 2010224
Feb 2010236
Jan 2010243
Dec 2009244
Nov 2009242
Oct 2009242
Sept 2009241
Aug 2009246
Jul 2009244
Jun 2009242
May 2009248
Apr 2009246
Mar 2009246
Feb 2009244
Jan 2009248
Dec 2008243
Nov 2008243
Oct 2008261
Sept 2008281
Aug 2008286
Jul 2008288
Jun 2008287
May 2008228
Apr 2008222
Mar 2008244
Feb 2008185
Jan 2008181
Dec 2007180
Nov 2007178
Oct 2007161
Sept 2007169
Aug 2007166
Jul 2007170
Jun 2007162
May 2007160
Apr 2007163
Mar 2007170
Feb 2007179
Jan 2007183
Dec 2006181
Nov 2006181
Oct 2006181
Sept 2006196
Aug 2006200
Jul 2006202
Jun 2006198
May 2006193
Apr 2006183
Mar 2006191
Feb 2006195
Jan 2006192
Dec 2005189
Nov 2005195
Oct 2005216
Sept 2005301
Aug 2005348
Jul 2005307
Jun 2005268
May 2005253
Apr 2005244
Mar 2005208
Feb 2005174
Jan 2005183
Dec 2004167
Nov 2004177
Oct 2004176
Sept 2004175
Aug 2004174
Jul 2004160
Jun 2004158
May 2004156
Apr 2004148
Mar 2004136
Feb 2004134
Jan 2004141
Dec 2003128
Nov 2003133
Oct 2003136
Sept 2003143
Aug 2003162
Jul 2003165
Jun 2003155
May 2003161
Apr 2003174
Mar 2003165
Feb 2003172
Jan 2003181
Dec 2002168
Nov 2002181
Oct 2002202
Sept 2002227
Aug 2002245
Jul 2002231
Jun 2002222
May 2002219
Apr 2002216
Mar 2002219
Feb 2002220
Jan 2002184
Dec 2001186
Nov 2001160
Oct 2001171
Sept 2001214
Aug 2001241
Jul 2001214
Jun 2001215
May 2001202
Apr 2001189
Mar 2001194
Feb 2001152
Jan 2001148
Dec 2000158
Nov 2000135
Oct 2000139
Sept 2000135
Aug 2000139
Jul 2000134
Jun 2000129
May 2000128
Apr 2000128
Mar 2000128
Feb 2000127
Jan 2000130
Dec 1999133
Nov 1999138
Oct 1999153
Sept 1999153
Aug 1999153
Jul 1999152
Jun 1999152
May 1999154
Apr 1999153
Mar 1999148
Feb 1999149
Jan 1999150
Dec 1998174
Nov 1998152
Oct 1998164
Sept 1998223
Aug 1998260
Jul 1998213
Jun 1998231
May 1998222
Apr 1998191
Mar 1998189
Feb 1998198
Jan 1998208
Dec 1997167
Nov 1997167
Oct 1997163
Sept 1997169
Aug 1997188
Jul 1997194
Jun 1997197
May 1997188
Apr 1997182
Mar 1997166
Feb 1997161
Jan 1997137
Dec 1996130
Nov 1996139
Oct 1996127
Sept 1996134
Aug 1996143
Jul 1996138
Jun 1996140
May 1996138
Apr 1996122
Mar 1996106
Feb 1996105
Jan 1996110
Dec 1995117
Nov 1995117
Oct 1995120
Sept 1995125
Aug 1995132
Jul 1995126
Jun 1995116
May 1995103
Apr 1995104
Mar 199593
Feb 199593
Jan 199596
Dec 199472
Nov 199472
Oct 199486
Sept 199488
Aug 199482
Jul 199493
Jun 199490
May 199481
Apr 199480
Mar 199482
Feb 199482
Jan 199458

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-546-51-retail-kg.