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Rice (imported) in Agadez Commune

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

454–540

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

433–557

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 454 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 433 and 557 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Agadez Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 454 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 433 and 557 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 483–530 498 454–546 600 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 468–533 498 434–561 594 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 454–540 496 425–612 601 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 441–551 494 402–655 605 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 433–557 493 394–639 605 –
Price history (437 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026550
Feb 2026550
Jan 2026550
Dec 2025550
Nov 2025540
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025580
May 2025600
Apr 2025650
Mar 2025625
Feb 2025650
Jan 2025650
Dec 2024664
Nov 2024660
Oct 2024713
Sept 2024713
Aug 2024733
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024750
May 2024700
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024713
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023667
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022550
Jul 2022550
Jun 2022550
May 2022550
Apr 2022540
Mar 2022538
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020520
Jul 2020600
Jun 2020600
May 2020600
Apr 2020600
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019500
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Apr 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018500
May 2018500
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017500
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Dec 2016500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Apr 2016500
Mar 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Nov 2015500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Dec 2014500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Feb 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012462
Aug 2012450
Jul 2012450
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Mar 2012500
Feb 2012500
Jan 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011500
Sept 2011500
Aug 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Feb 2011500
Jan 2011488
Dec 2010500
Nov 2010400
Oct 2010400
Sept 2010400
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010400
May 2010400
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010400
Feb 2010400
Jan 2010400
Dec 2009400
Nov 2009433
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009450
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009475
May 2009488
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009481
Feb 2009475
Jan 2009481
Dec 2008494
Nov 2008520
Oct 2008500
Sept 2008456
Aug 2008455
Jul 2008450
Jun 2008405
May 2008388
Apr 2008381
Mar 2008400
Feb 2008400
Jan 2008363
Dec 2007383
Nov 2007373
Oct 2007356
Sept 2007348
Aug 2007347
Jul 2007346
Jun 2007350
May 2007344
Apr 2007350
Mar 2007350
Feb 2007350
Jan 2007350
Dec 2006350
Nov 2006350
Oct 2006350
Sept 2006350
Aug 2006350
Jul 2006350
Jun 2006350
May 2006350
Apr 2006350
Mar 2006350
Feb 2006350
Jan 2006350
Dec 2005350
Nov 2005350
Oct 2005338
Sept 2005370
Aug 2005381
Jul 2005350
Jun 2005325
May 2005325
Apr 2005325
Mar 2005325
Feb 2005325
Jan 2005325
Dec 2004325
Nov 2004325
Oct 2004325
Sept 2004325
Aug 2004325
Jul 2004325
Jun 2004325
May 2004306
Apr 2004300
Mar 2004300
Feb 2004300
Jan 2004300
Dec 2003300
Nov 2003300
Oct 2003300
Sept 2003300
Aug 2003300
Jul 2003300
Jun 2003300
May 2003300
Apr 2003300
Mar 2003300
Feb 2003300
Jan 2003300
Dec 2002300
Nov 2002300
Oct 2002300
Sept 2002300
Aug 2002300
Jul 2002300
Jun 2002300
May 2002300
Apr 2002300
Mar 2002300
Feb 2002300
Jan 2002300
Dec 2001300
Nov 2001300
Oct 2001300
Sept 2001300
Aug 2001300
Jul 2001300
Jun 2001300
May 2001300
Apr 2001300
Mar 2001300
Feb 2001300
Jan 2001300
Dec 2000300
Nov 2000300
Oct 2000300
Sept 2000320
Aug 2000300
Jul 2000300
Jun 2000300
May 2000300
Apr 2000300
Mar 2000300
Feb 2000340
Jan 2000300
Dec 1999300
Nov 1999300
Oct 1999300
Sept 1999300
Aug 1999300
Jul 1999300
Jun 1999300
May 1999300
Apr 1999300
Mar 1999300
Feb 1999300
Jan 1999300
Dec 1998300
Nov 1998300
Oct 1998313
Sept 1998325
Aug 1998325
Jul 1998325
Jun 1998325
May 1998325
Apr 1998313
Mar 1998300
Feb 1998300
Jan 1998300
Dec 1997300
Nov 1997300
Oct 1997300
Sept 1997300
Aug 1997300
Jul 1997300
Jun 1997300
May 1997300
Apr 1997300
Mar 1997300
Feb 1997300
Jan 1997300
Dec 1996300
Nov 1996300
Oct 1996300
Sept 1996300
Aug 1996300
Jul 1996300
Jun 1996300
May 1996300
Apr 1996325
Mar 1996300
Feb 1996317
Jan 1996325
Dec 1995325
Nov 1995325
Oct 1995338
Sept 1995363
Aug 1995308
Jul 1995300
Jun 1995300
May 1995300
Apr 1995275
Mar 1995300
Feb 1995300
Jan 1995300
Dec 1994300
Nov 1994300
Oct 1994300
Sept 1994275
Aug 1994268
Jul 1994269
Jun 1994250
May 1994250
Apr 1994248
Mar 1994253
Feb 1994222
Jan 1994200
Dec 1993200
Nov 1993200
Oct 1993200
Sept 1993200
Aug 1993200
Jul 1993200
Jun 1993200
May 1993190
Apr 1993195
Mar 1993200
Feb 1993200
Jan 1993203
Dec 1992200
Nov 1992200
Oct 1992200
Sept 1992200
Aug 1992200
Jul 1992200
Jun 1992200
May 1992200
Apr 1992200
Mar 1992200
Feb 1992200
Jan 1992225
Oct 1991200
Sept 1991200
Aug 1991200
Jul 1991200
Jun 1991200
May 1991200
Apr 1991200
Mar 1991200
Feb 1991200
Jan 1991200
Dec 1990200
Nov 1990200
Oct 1990200
Sept 1990200
Aug 1990200
Jul 1990200
Jun 1990200
May 1990200
Apr 1990200
Mar 1990200
Feb 1990200
Jan 1990200

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-546-64-retail-kg.