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Millet in Agadez Commune

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 21% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 18% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

233–336

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

226–350

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 233 and 336 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 226 and 350 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Agadez Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 233 and 336 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 226 and 350 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 274–342 311 248–350 388 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 251–333 278 204–336 343 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 233–336 270 212–358 335 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 227–344 272 190–413 330 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 226–350 275 199–428 335 –
Price history (419 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026307
Aug 2026330
Jul 2026324
Jun 2026295
May 2026283
Apr 2026278
Mar 2026280
Feb 2026280
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025295
Nov 2025268
Oct 2025272
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025360
Jul 2025400
Jun 2025388
May 2025400
Apr 2025400
Mar 2025377
Feb 2025363
Jan 2025359
Dec 2024328
Nov 2024330
Oct 2024398
Sept 2024499
Aug 2024512
Jul 2024482
Jun 2024430
May 2024366
Apr 2024317
Mar 2024308
Feb 2024298
Jan 2024298
Dec 2023296
Nov 2023316
Sept 2023336
Aug 2023335
Jul 2023316
Jun 2023316
May 2023316
Apr 2023316
Mar 2023331
Feb 2023317
Jan 2023316
Dec 2022333
Nov 2022324
Sept 2022352
Aug 2022352
Jul 2022352
Jun 2022353
May 2022346
Apr 2022343
Mar 2022346
Feb 2022316
Jan 2022311
Dec 2021303
Nov 2021316
Oct 2021290
Sept 2021335
Aug 2021319
Jul 2021314
Jun 2021293
May 2021293
Apr 2021296
Mar 2021296
Feb 2021277
Jan 2021249
Dec 2020247
Nov 2020257
Oct 2020291
Sept 2020354
Aug 2020319
Jul 2020306
Jun 2020277
May 2020245
Apr 2020236
Mar 2020236
Feb 2020217
Jan 2020217
Dec 2019216
Nov 2019216
Oct 2019235
Sept 2019230
Aug 2019221
Jul 2019222
Jun 2019236
May 2019235
Apr 2019235
Mar 2019231
Feb 2019231
Jan 2019242
Dec 2018248
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018262
Sept 2018302
Aug 2018302
Jul 2018302
Jun 2018302
May 2018282
Apr 2018257
Mar 2018257
Feb 2018257
Jan 2018257
Dec 2017257
Nov 2017257
Oct 2017257
Sept 2017312
Aug 2017331
Jul 2017313
Jun 2017294
May 2017332
Apr 2017261
Mar 2017261
Feb 2017261
Jan 2017250
Nov 2016263
Oct 2016253
Sept 2016253
Aug 2016251
Jul 2016248
Jun 2016250
Feb 2016213
Jan 2016213
Dec 2015229
Oct 2015250
Sept 2015252
Aug 2015253
Jul 2015226
Jun 2015226
May 2015230
Apr 2015245
Mar 2015237
Feb 2015231
Jan 2015245
Dec 2014268
Nov 2014263
Oct 2014314
Sept 2014352
Aug 2014333
Jul 2014320
Jun 2014283
May 2014291
Apr 2014291
Mar 2014300
Feb 2014299
Jan 2014298
Dec 2013298
Oct 2013307
Sept 2013357
Aug 2013356
Jul 2013351
Jun 2013317
May 2013317
Apr 2013301
Mar 2013278
Feb 2013277
Jan 2013257
Dec 2012258
Oct 2012233
Sept 2012336
Aug 2012336
Jul 2012327
May 2012292
Apr 2012291
Mar 2012252
Feb 2012253
Jan 2012254
Dec 2011233
Nov 2011224
Oct 2011189
Sept 2011181
Aug 2011194
Jul 2011194
Jun 2011178
May 2011194
Apr 2011194
Mar 2011194
Feb 2011188
Jan 2011180
Dec 2010188
Nov 2010167
Oct 2010178
Sept 2010222
Aug 2010248
Jul 2010249
Jun 2010250
May 2010243
Apr 2010212
Mar 2010214
Feb 2010214
Jan 2010214
Dec 2009215
Nov 2009206
Oct 2009198
Sept 2009236
Aug 2009251
Jul 2009224
Jun 2009216
May 2009214
Apr 2009216
Mar 2009216
Feb 2009215
Jan 2009216
Dec 2008198
Nov 2008181
Oct 2008198
Sept 2008216
Aug 2008207
Jul 2008196
Jun 2008180
May 2008178
Apr 2008177
Mar 2008178
Feb 2008159
Jan 2008157
Dec 2007155
Oct 2007157
Sept 2007159
Aug 2007170
Jul 2007168
Jun 2007167
May 2007169
Apr 2007168
Mar 2007170
Feb 2007166
Jan 2007161
Dec 2006157
Oct 2006172
Sept 2006185
Aug 2006199
Jul 2006193
Jun 2006178
May 2006181
Apr 2006168
Mar 2006172
Feb 2006178
Jan 2006175
Dec 2005177
Nov 2005174
Oct 2005174
Sept 2005285
Aug 2005337
Jul 2005302
Jun 2005225
May 2005223
Apr 2005215
Mar 2005195
Feb 2005170
Jan 2005173
Dec 2004159
Oct 2004159
Sept 2004165
Aug 2004171
Jul 2004157
Jun 2004148
May 2004147
Apr 2004139
Mar 2004133
Feb 2004127
Jan 2004122
Dec 2003119
Oct 2003118
Sept 2003134
Aug 2003139
Jul 2003150
Jun 2003161
May 2003160
Apr 2003158
Mar 2003161
Feb 2003168
Jan 2003165
Dec 2002156
Nov 2002154
Oct 2002160
Sept 2002214
Aug 2002229
Jul 2002203
Jun 2002211
May 2002198
Apr 2002190
Mar 2002174
Feb 2002176
Jan 2002150
Dec 2001153
Nov 2001150
Oct 2001158
Sept 2001210
Aug 2001226
Jul 2001224
Jun 2001224
May 2001209
Apr 2001230
Mar 2001188
Feb 2001158
Jan 2001152
Dec 2000177
Oct 2000138
Sept 2000138
Aug 2000133
Jul 2000133
Jun 2000143
May 2000132
Apr 2000127
Mar 2000117
Feb 2000121
Jan 2000108
Dec 1999121
Oct 1999107
Sept 1999108
Aug 1999118
Jul 1999121
Jun 1999105
May 1999102
Apr 1999102
Mar 1999105
Feb 1999101
Jan 1999103
Dec 1998113
Nov 1998118
Oct 1998131
Sept 1998210
Aug 1998252
Jul 1998219
Jun 1998228
May 1998243
Apr 1998211
Mar 1998177
Feb 1998176
Jan 1998166
Dec 1997162
Nov 1997157
Oct 1997141
Sept 1997171
Aug 1997194
Jul 1997188
Jun 1997172
May 1997171
Apr 1997171
Mar 1997141
Feb 1997142
Jan 1997121
Dec 1996121
Oct 1996105
Sept 1996154
Aug 1996161
Jul 1996121
Jun 1996126
May 1996125
Apr 1996110
Mar 199690
Feb 199689
Jan 199684
Dec 199588
Oct 199576
Sept 199585
Aug 199592
Jul 199584
Jun 199579
May 199568
Apr 199569
Mar 199575
Feb 199574
Jan 199573
Dec 199463
Oct 199481
Sept 199485
Aug 199494
Jul 1994103
Jun 199485
May 199477
Apr 199481
Mar 199482
Feb 199477
Jan 199453
Dec 199352
Oct 199359
Sept 199364
Aug 199368
Jul 199374
Jun 199367
May 199365
Apr 199367
Mar 199373
Feb 199375
Jan 199377
Dec 199267
Nov 199272
Oct 199276
Sept 199279
Aug 199282
Jul 199295
Jun 199270
May 199263
Apr 199263
Mar 199257
Feb 199257
Jan 199267
Oct 199155
Sept 199176
Aug 199197
Jul 199194
Jun 199183
May 199181
Apr 199182
Mar 199183
Feb 199185
Jan 199171
Dec 199065
Nov 199064
Oct 199069
Sept 199073
Aug 199069
Jul 199072
Jun 199065
May 199068
Apr 199068
Mar 199060
Feb 199060
Jan 199063

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-546-73-retail-kg.