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Maize in Arlit

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 28% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 21% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

204–291

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

191–311

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 204 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 191 and 311 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Arlit: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 204 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 191 and 311 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 236–280 251 220–303 389 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 215–288 241 196–316 371 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 204–291 235 191–293 359 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 192–289 227 160–316 336 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 191–311 236 170–431 357 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026232
Aug 2026256
Jul 2026278
Jun 2026261
May 2026261
Apr 2026280
Mar 2026270
Feb 2026251
Jan 2026271
Dec 2025285
Nov 2025282
Oct 2025299
Sept 2025328
Aug 2025347
Jul 2025347
Jun 2025347
May 2025363
Apr 2025347
Mar 2025347
Feb 2025347
Jan 2025347
Dec 2024331
Nov 2024338
Oct 2024410
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024512
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024454
May 2024389
Apr 2024347
Mar 2024347
Feb 2024333
Jan 2024328
Dec 2023328
Nov 2023347
Oct 2023347
Sept 2023333
Aug 2023328
Jun 2023328
May 2023328
Apr 2023328
Mar 2023328
Feb 2023328
Jan 2023326
Dec 2022314
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022328
Sept 2022328
Aug 2022328
Jul 2022328
Jun 2022328
May 2022328
Apr 2022342
Mar 2022347
Feb 2022354
Jan 2022335
Dec 2021323
Nov 2021347
Oct 2021306
Sept 2021386
Aug 2021356
Jul 2021309
Jun 2021290
May 2021290
Apr 2021271
Mar 2021251
Feb 2021251
Jan 2021251
Dec 2020176
Nov 2020275
Oct 2020298
Sept 2020290
Aug 2020270
Jul 2020242
Jun 2020232
May 2020232
Apr 2020232
Mar 2020232
Feb 2020237
Jan 2020232
Dec 2019232
Nov 2019232
Oct 2019232
Sept 2019232
Aug 2019232
Jul 2019232
Jun 2019232
Apr 2019251
Mar 2019251
Feb 2019232
Jan 2019232
Nov 2018232
Oct 2018232
Sept 2018232
Aug 2018251
Jul 2018251
Apr 2018237
Mar 2018232
Feb 2018232
Jan 2018258
Dec 2017232
Nov 2017232
Oct 2017232
Sept 2017232
Aug 2017232
Jun 2017251
May 2017241
Apr 2017232
Feb 2017242
Jan 2017232
Nov 2016261
Oct 2016251
Sept 2016251
Aug 2016245
Jul 2016245
Jun 2016251
May 2016251
Mar 2016233
Feb 2016232
Jan 2016232
Dec 2015232
Oct 2015232
Sept 2015232
Aug 2015232
Jul 2015222
Jun 2015212
May 2015232
Apr 2015212
Mar 2015221
Feb 2015193
Jan 2015222
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014230
Sept 2014232
Aug 2014233
Jul 2014233
Jun 2014232
May 2014233
Apr 2014233
Mar 2014233
Feb 2014232
Jan 2014233
Dec 2013233
Nov 2013232
Oct 2013232
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013265
Jul 2013271
Jun 2013272
May 2013273
Apr 2013258
Mar 2013253
Jan 2013245
Dec 2012237
Nov 2012237
Oct 2012237
Sept 2012238
Aug 2012238
Jul 2012238
May 2012238
Apr 2012238
Dec 2011237
Nov 2011237
Oct 2011239
Sept 2011238
Jul 2011238
Jun 2011257
May 2011237
Apr 2011237
Mar 2011238
Feb 2011225
Jan 2011198
Dec 2010196
Nov 2010184
Oct 2010199
Sept 2010207
Aug 2010235
Jul 2010237
Jun 2010257
May 2010236
Apr 2010237
Mar 2010239
Feb 2010238
Jan 2010251
Dec 2009257
Nov 2009258
Oct 2009259
Sept 2009257
Aug 2009256
Jul 2009256
Jun 2009258
May 2009257
Apr 2009259
Mar 2009260
Feb 2009258
Jan 2009258

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-548-51-retail-kg.